scholarly journals Decadal variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by documentary-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyun Zheng ◽  
Yingzhuo Yu ◽  
Xuezhen Zhang ◽  
Zhixin Hao
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North China ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract. Using the 17-sites seasonal precipitation reconstructions from an unique historical archive, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun, the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability of less than 10 % from 1951 to 2000) in North China were investigated, by considering both the probabilities of droughts/floods occurrence in each site and spatial coverage (i.e., percentage of sites). Then, the possible linkages of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) episodes and large volcanic eruptions were discussed. The results show that there were 29 extreme droughts and 28 extreme floods in North China from 1736 to 2000. Extreme droughts occurred more frequently (2 or more events) during the 1770s–1780s, 1870s, 1900s–1920s, 1940s and 1980s–1990s, among which the most frequent (3 events) occurred in the 1900s and the 1920s. While more frequent extreme floods occurred in the 1770s, 1790s, 1820s, 1880s, 1910s and 1950s–1960s, among which the most frequent (4 events) occurred in the 1790s and 1880s. For the total of extreme droughts and floods, they are more frequent in the 1770s, 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1920s and 1960s, and the highest frequency (5 events) occurred in the 1790s. A higher probability of the extreme drought was found when El Niño occurred in the current year or the previous year. However, no significant connections were found not only between the occurrences of extreme floods and ENSO episodes, but also between the occurrences of extreme droughts/floods and large volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1135-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyun Zheng ◽  
Yingzhuo Yu ◽  
Xuezhen Zhang ◽  
Zhixin Hao
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North China ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Reconstruction ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract. Using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun, the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability of less than 10 % from 1951 to 2000) in North China were investigated, by considering both the probabilities of droughts/floods occurrence in each site and spatial coverage (i.e., percentage of sites). Then, the possible linkages of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) episodes and large volcanic eruptions were discussed. The results show that there were 29 extreme droughts and 28 extreme floods in North China from 1736 to 2000. For most of these extreme drought (flood) events, precipitation decreased (increased) evidently at most of the sites for the four seasons, especially for summer and autumn. But in drought years of 1902 and 1981, precipitation only decreased in summer slightly, while it decreased evidently in the other three seasons. Similarly, the precipitation anomalies for different seasons at different sites also existed in several extreme flood years, such as 1794, 1823, 1867, 1872 and 1961. Extreme droughts occurred more frequently (2 or more events) during the 1770s–1780s, 1870s, 1900s–1930s and 1980s–1990s, among which the most frequent (3 events) occurred in the 1900s and the 1920s. More frequent extreme floods occurred in the 1770s, 1790s, 1820s, 1880s, 1910s and 1950s–1960s, among which the most frequent (4 events) occurred in the 1790s and 1880s. For the total of extreme droughts and floods, they were more frequent in the 1770s, 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1930s and 1960s, and the highest frequency (5 events) occurred in the 1790s. A higher probability of extreme drought was found when El Niño occurred in the current year or the previous year. However, no significant connections were found between the occurrences of extreme floods and ENSO episodes, or the occurrences of extreme droughts/floods and large volcanic eruptions.

Summer Cooling Driven by Large Volcanic Eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9869-9879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Duan ◽  
Lun Li ◽  
Zhuguo Ma ◽  
Jan Esper ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Temperature Deviation ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
El Nino Events

Large volcanic eruptions may cause abrupt summer cooling over large parts of the globe. However, no comparable imprint has been found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we introduce a 400-yr-long temperature-sensitive network of 17 tree-ring maximum latewood density sites from the TP that demonstrates that the effects of tropical eruptions on the TP are generally greater than those of extratropical eruptions. Moreover, we found that large tropical eruptions accompanied by subsequent El Niño events caused less summer cooling than those that occurred without El Niño association. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) based on 27 events, including 14 tropical eruptions and 13 extratropical eruptions, shows that the summer cooling driven by extratropical eruptions is insignificant on the TP, while significant summer temperature decreases occur subsequent to tropical eruptions. Further analysis of the TP August–September temperature responses reveals a significant postvolcanic cooling only when no El Niño event occurred. However, there is no such cooling for all other situations, that is, tropical eruptions together with a subsequent El Niño event, as well as extratropical eruptions regardless of the occurrence of an El Niño event. The averaged August–September temperature deviation ( Tdev) following 10 large tropical eruptions without a subsequent El Niño event is up to −0.48° ± 0.19°C (with respect to the preceding 5-yr mean), whereas the temperature deviation following 4 large tropical eruptions with an El Niño association is approximately 0.23° ± 0.16°C. These results indicate a mitigation effect of El Niño events on the TP temperature response to large tropical eruptions. The possible mechanism is that El Niño events can weaken the Indian summer monsoon with a subsequent decrease in rainfall and cooling effect, which may lead to a relatively high temperature on the TP, one of the regions affected by the Indian summer monsoon.

scholarly journals Response to Comment on “No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium”

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6509) ◽  
pp. eabc1733
Author(s):  
Sylvia G. Dee ◽  
Kim M. Cobb ◽  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Toby R. Ault ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Robock claims that our analysis fails to acknowledge that pan-tropical surface cooling caused by large volcanic eruptions may mask El Niño warming at our central Pacific site, potentially obscuring a volcano–El Niño connection suggested in previous studies. Although observational support for a dynamical response linking volcanic cooling to El Niño remains ambiguous, Robock raises some important questions about our study that we address here.

scholarly journals Severe Droughts of 1876-1878 in North China and Possible Causes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixin Hao ◽  
Mengxin Bai ◽  
Danyang Xiong ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Jingyun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North China ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Price Inflation

Abstract Extreme drought of 1876–1878 occurred in most regions of Northern China after the industrial revolution which has led to a series of social impacts, including harvest failure, price inflation, and population immigration. Concurrently, most regions of Northern Hemisphere occurred extreme drought. Here, we used the reconstructed high-resolution hydroclimatic (PDSI/precipitation) datasets, investigated the seasonal-annual hydroclimatic spatial patterns and drought intensity with time evolution from 1876 to 1878 in North China. Furthermore, we selected combined Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modes with positive IOD/PDO and El Niño from the 1200-year control run simulations of HadCM3 to diagnose the causes of this severe drought. The extent and intensity of selected SST mode was similar with that in Pacific and Indian Ocean during the 1876–1878 from NOAA/ERSST dataset. The results showed that the large-scale drought of 1876–1878 was mainly driven by El Niño and positive PDO, while the effect of IOD was not significant. El Niño may trigger Circumglobal Teleconnection of Northern Hemisphere, and meridional disturbance of mid-latitude Rossby wave train changed the intensity of trough and ridge, and further blocked water vapor transportation.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability, teleconnection changes and responses to large volcanic eruptions since AD 1000

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 2711-2724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Dätwyler ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Martin Grosjean ◽  
Eugene R. Wahl ◽  
Raphael Neukom
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Clear anti-phase tendency of volcanic eruptions and consistent U.S. Dollar Index response to volcanic forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seokhwan Hwang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract Numerous studies have presented statistical relations between large volcanic eruptions and ensuing El Niño events or between El Niño events and local economies. However, the relation between volcanic eruptions and economies has not been completely clarified. This study compares volcanic eruptions and the U.S. Dollar Index for the past 54 years (1967–2020) to identify significant economic responses to volcanic activity. There is a clear anti-phase tendency between the volcanic eruptions of the western Pacific and those of the eastern Pacific. And volcanic eruptions and U.S. Dollar Index exhibit a strong correlation and U.S. Dollar Index follows the fluctuation trend of volcanic eruptions with a 1-year delay. Thus, results indicate that changes in forces within the earth due to volcanic eruptions continuously impact the global economy. This study identifies a teleconnection between heterogeneous factors that had not been previously reported and provides a new scientific clue regarding the mechanism how has geodynamics affected the human life.

scholarly journals Comment on “No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium”

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6509) ◽  
pp. eabc0502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Robock
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Dee et al. (Reports, 27 March 2020, p. 1477) claimed that large volcanic eruptions do not produce a detectable El Niño response. However, they come to the wrong conclusion because they have ignored the fundamental climate response to large volcanic eruptions: Volcanic eruptions cool the surface, thus masking the relative El Niño warming.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and detectability of climate surface response to large volcanic eruptions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Wunderlich ◽  
Daniel M. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Positive Tendency ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract. In light of the range in presently available observational, reanalysis and model data, we revisit the surface climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions from the end of the 19th century until present. We focus on the dynamical driven response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the radiative driven tropical temperature response. Using ten different reanalysis products and the Hadley Centre Sea Level Pressure observational dataset (HadSLP2) we confirm a positive tendency in the phase of the NAO during boreal winters following large volcanic eruptions, although conclude that it is not as clear cut as the current literature suggests. Especially during poorly observed periods where higher uncertainties produce a less robust signal. The phase of the NAO leads to a dynamically driven warm anomaly over Northern Europe. At the same time, there is a general cooling of the tropical surface temperatures due to the reduced incoming shortwave radiation. The magnitude of this cooling is uncertain and is hard to isolate using observational data alone (mainly due to the presence of El Niño). Therefore we use regression-based detection and attribution techniques to investigate the volcanic temperature signal with eight Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In all models the volcanic signal can be detected but a general overestimation of the surface cooling is found. The enhanced surface cooling in models is likely driven, in part, by an over absorption of SW radiation in the lower stratosphere, but aliasing with El Niño events is also an issue and further process based studies are necessary to confirm these.

scholarly journals The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suvarna Fadnavis ◽  
Rolf Müller ◽  
Tanusri Chakraborty ◽  
T. P. Sabin ◽  
Anton Laakso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Region ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractThe Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871–2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

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