scholarly journals Arctic hydroclimate variability during the last 2000 years – current understanding and research challenges

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans W. Linderholm ◽  
Marie Nicolle ◽  
Pierre Francus ◽  
Konrad Gajewski ◽  
Samuli Helama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Current Understanding ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Oceanic Circulation ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability

Abstract. Along with Arctic amplification, changes in Arctic hydroclimate have become increasingly apparent. Reanalysis data show increasing trends in Arctic temperature and precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydroclimate changes are expected to continue, and possibly accelerate, in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand hydroclimate variability and the mechanisms driving observed changes, beyond the instrumental record, climate proxies are needed. Here we bring together the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years, as inferred from natural archives and proxies and palaeoclimate model simulations. Inadequate proxy data coverage is apparent, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, which makes robust assessments for the whole Arctic currently impossible. Hydroclimate proxies and climate models indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was anomalously wet, while conditions were in general drier during the Little Ice Age (LIA), relative to the last 2000 years. However, it is clear that there are large regional differences, which are especially evident during the LIA. Due to the spatiotemporal differences in Arctic hydroclimate, we recommend detailed regional studies, e.g. including field reconstructions, to disentangle spatial patterns and potential forcing factors. At present, it is only possible to carry out regional syntheses for a few areas of the Arctic, e.g. Fennoscandia, Greenland and western North America. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last two millennia additional proxy records are required.

scholarly journals Arctic hydroclimate variability during the last 2000 years: current understanding and research challenges

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans W. Linderholm ◽  
Marie Nicolle ◽  
Pierre Francus ◽  
Konrad Gajewski ◽  
Samuli Helama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Current Understanding ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability

Abstract. Reanalysis data show an increasing trend in Arctic precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydroclimate changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through the atmospheric and ocean circulations. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand Arctic hydroclimate and its variability prior to the instrumental record, climate proxy records are needed. The purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years. First, the paper reviews the main natural archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variations in this remote region and outlines the difficulty of disentangling the moisture from the temperature signal in these records. Second, a comparison of two sets of hydroclimate records covering the Common Era from two data-rich regions, North America and Fennoscandia, reveals inter- and intra-regional differences. Third, building on earlier work, this paper shows the potential for providing a high-resolution hydroclimate reconstruction for the Arctic and a comparison with last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models. In general, hydroclimate proxies and simulations indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly tends to have been wetter than the Little Ice Age (LIA), but there are large regional differences. However, the regional coverage of the proxy data is inadequate, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, making robust assessments for the whole Arctic impossible at present. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last 2 millennia, additional proxy records are required.

EL NINO EFFECTS ON THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE ACCORDING TO CMIP5 MODELS AND REANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-23
Author(s):  
M. A. Kolennikova ◽  
◽  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
D. Yu. Gushchina ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Coupled Climate Models

The response of the Arctic stratosphere to El Nio is studied with account of its Eastern and Central Pacific types for the period of 1950-2005. The study is based on the regression and composite analysis using the simulations with six CMIP5 coupled climate models and reanalysis data.

scholarly journals A Multiregion Model Evaluation and Attribution Study of Historical Changes in the Area Affected by Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (23) ◽  
pp. 8285-8299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea J. Dittus ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Sophie C. Lewis ◽  
Lisa V. Alexander ◽  
Markus G. Donat
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract The skill of eight climate models in simulating the variability and trends in the observed areal extent of daily temperature and precipitation extremes is evaluated across five large-scale regions, using the climate extremes index (CEI) framework. Focusing on Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and the Northern Hemisphere, results show that overall the models are generally able to simulate the decadal variability and trends of the observed temperature and precipitation components over the period 1951–2005. Climate models are able to reproduce observed increasing trends in the area experiencing warm maximum and minimum temperature extremes, as well as, to a lesser extent, increasing trends in the areas experiencing an extreme contribution of heavy precipitation to total annual precipitation for the Northern Hemisphere regions. Using simulations performed under different radiative forcing scenarios, the causes of simulated and observed trends are investigated. A clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for all regions. In North America, a strong anthropogenically forced trend in the maximum temperature component is simulated despite no significant trend in the gridded observations, although a trend is detected in a reanalysis product. A distinct anthropogenic influence is also found for trends in the area affected by a much-above-average contribution of heavy precipitation to annual precipitation totals for Europe in a majority of models and to varying degrees in other Northern Hemisphere regions. However, observed trends in the area experiencing extreme total annual precipitation and extreme number of wet and dry days are not reproduced by climate models under any forcing scenario.

Can climate models capture the high amplitudes circumglobal waves and their surface imprints?  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Luo ◽  
Kai Kornhuber ◽  
Frank Selten ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phase Locking ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Wave Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
June July

<p>Pronounced circumglobal waves can trigger and maintain persistent summer weather conditions by remaining in their preferred phase-locked positions for several weeks in a row. This phenomenon, especially important for wave numbers 5 and 7, has been observed in recent years, but it is unclear whether climate models can reproduce circulation types and their surface imprints.</p><p>Here we assess three climate models (EC-Earth3, CESM1.2, and MIROC5)  for their representation of amplified circumglobal waves and associated surface imprints in summer (June, July and August) over 1979-2016. ERA5 reanalysis data is used as reference to assess the models’ performance. We run a series of modeling experiments to understand the source of biases in the climate models: free interactive atmosphere and soil moisture runs (AISI), atmospheric nudged runs (AFSI), soil moisture prescribed runs (AISF), and both atmosphere and soil moisture nudged experiments (AFSF).</p><p>We show that all models reasonably well reproduce the climatological wave spectra. Further, both wave 5 and wave 7 are found to exhibit phase-locking behaviors across all models, resulting in similar wave patterns across the hemisphere as compared to reanalysis. The surface imprints are observed in the models as well, but depending on the model, the results vary in strength. We also found the biases in surface temperature and precipitation anomalies mainly come from the atmospheric circulation in the models as these biases reduced considerably from AISI runs to AFSI and AFSF runs where upper atmosphere levels were nudged. Nudging soil moisture also minimizes some biases in the models but not as obvious as nudging the atmosphere. </p><div> <div> <div> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Paleobotanical proxies for early Eocene climates and ecosystems in northern North America from middle to high latitudes

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1387-1410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher K. West ◽  
David R. Greenwood ◽  
Tammo Reichgelt ◽  
Alexander J. Lowe ◽  
Janelle M. Vachon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
Northern Half ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
High Precipitation

Abstract. Early Eocene climates were globally warm, with ice-free conditions at both poles. Early Eocene polar landmasses supported extensive forest ecosystems of a primarily temperate biota but also with abundant thermophilic elements, such as crocodilians, and mesothermic taxodioid conifers and angiosperms. The globally warm early Eocene was punctuated by geologically brief hyperthermals such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), culminating in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), during which the range of thermophilic plants such as palms extended into the Arctic. Climate models have struggled to reproduce early Eocene Arctic warm winters and high precipitation, with models invoking a variety of mechanisms, from atmospheric CO2 levels that are unsupported by proxy evidence to the role of an enhanced hydrological cycle, to reproduce winters that experienced no direct solar energy input yet remained wet and above freezing. Here, we provide new estimates of climate and compile existing paleobotanical proxy data for upland and lowland midlatitude sites in British Columbia, Canada, and northern Washington, USA, and from high-latitude lowland sites in Alaska and the Canadian Arctic to compare climatic regimes between the middle and high latitudes of the early Eocene – spanning the PETM to the EECO – in the northern half of North America. In addition, these data are used to reevaluate the latitudinal temperature gradient in North America during the early Eocene and to provide refined biome interpretations of these ancient forests based on climate and physiognomic data.

scholarly journals Paleobotanical proxies for early Eocene climates and ecosystems in northern North America from mid to high latitudes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher K. West ◽  
David R. Greenwood ◽  
Tammo Reichgelt ◽  
Alex J. Lowe ◽  
Janelle M. Vachon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
Northern Half ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
High Precipitation

Abstract. Early Eocene climates were globally warm, with ice-free conditions at both poles. Early Eocene polar landmasses supported extensive forest ecosystems of a primarily temperate biota, but also with abundant thermophilic elements such as crocodilians, and mesothermic taxodioid conifers and angiosperms. The globally warm early Eocene was punctuated by geologically brief hyperthermals such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), culminating in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), during which the range of thermophilic plants such as palms extended into the Arctic. Climate models have struggled to reproduce early Eocene Arctic warm winters and high precipitation, with models invoking a variety of mechanisms, from atmospheric CO2 levels that are unsupported by proxy evidence, to the role of an enhanced hydrological cycle to reproduce winters that experienced no direct solar energy input yet remained wet and above freezing. Here, we provide new estimates of climate, and compile existing paleobotanical proxy data for upland and lowland mid-latitudes sites in British Columbia, Canada, and northern Washington, USA, and from high-latitude lowland sites in Alaska and the Canadian Arctic to compare climatic regimes between mid- and high latitudes of the early Eocene – spanning the PETM to the EECO – of the northern half of North America. In addition, these data are used to reevaluate the latitudinal temperate gradient in North America during the early Eocene, and to provide refined biome interpretations of these ancient forests based on climate and physiognomic data.

scholarly journals Are the Transient and Equilibrium Climate Change Patterns Similar in Response to Increased CO2?

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (18) ◽  
pp. 8003-8023
Author(s):  
Danqing Huang ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Jian Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Subtropical Oceans

AbstractAfter a CO2 increase, whether the early transient and final equilibrium climate change patterns are similar has major implications. Here, we analyze long-term simulations from multiple climate models under increased CO2, together with the extended simulations from CMIP5, to compare the transient and equilibrium climate change patterns under different forcing scenarios. Results show that the normalized warming patterns (per 1 K of global warming) are broadly similar among different forcing scenarios (including abrupt 2 × CO2, 4 × CO2, and 1% CO2 increase per year) and during different time periods, except for the first 50 years or so when warming is weaker over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean but stronger over most continents. During the first 200 years, this consistency is stronger over land than over ocean, but is lower in midlatitudes than other regions. Normalized precipitation change patterns are also similar, albeit to a lesser degree, among different forcing scenarios and across different time periods, although noticeable differences exist during the first few hundred years with smaller increases over the tropical Pacific. Precipitation over many subtropical oceans and land areas decreases consistently under different forcing scenarios and over all time periods. In particular, the transient and near-equilibrium change patterns for both surface air temperature and precipitation are similar over most of the globe, except for the North Atlantic warming hole, which is mainly a transient feature. The Arctic amplification and land–ocean warming contrast are largest during the first 100–200 years after CO2 quadrupling but they still exist in the equilibrium response.

scholarly journals Simulation of factors affecting <i>Emiliania huxleyi</i> blooms in Arctic and sub-Arctic seas by CMIP5 climate models: model validation and selection

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1199-1212
Author(s):  
Natalia Gnatiuk ◽  
Iuliia Radchenko ◽  
Richard Davy ◽  
Evgeny Morozov ◽  
Leonid Bobylev
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Selection Procedure ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Full Model ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Biochemical Variables

Abstract. The observed warming in the Arctic is more than double the global average, and this enhanced Arctic warming is projected to continue throughout the 21st century. This rapid warming has a wide range of impacts on polar and sub-polar marine ecosystems. One of the examples of such an impact on ecosystems is that of coccolithophores, particularly Emiliania huxleyi, which have expanded their range poleward during recent decades. The coccolithophore E. huxleyi plays an essential role in the global carbon cycle. Therefore, the assessment of future changes in coccolithophore blooms is very important. Currently, there are a large number of climate models that give projections for various oceanographic, meteorological, and biochemical variables in the Arctic. However, individual climate models can have large biases when compared to historical observations. The main goal of this research was to select an ensemble of climate models that most accurately reproduces the state of environmental variables that influence the coccolithophore E. huxleyi bloom over the historical period when compared to reanalysis data. We developed a novel approach for model selection to include a diverse set of measures of model skill including the spatial pattern of some variables, which had not previously been included in a model selection procedure. We applied this method to each of the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas in which E. huxleyi blooms have been observed. Once we have selected an optimal combination of climate models that most skilfully reproduce the factors which affect E. huxleyi, the projections of the future conditions in the Arctic from these models can be used to predict how E. huxleyi blooms will change in the future. Here, we present the validation of 34 CMIP5 (fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) over the historical period 1979–2005. Furthermore, we propose a procedure of ranking and selecting these models based on the model's skill in reproducing 10 important oceanographic, meteorological, and biochemical variables in the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. These factors include the concentration of nutrients (NO3, PO4, and SI), dissolved CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), pH, sea surface temperature (SST), salinity averaged over the top 30 m (SS30 m), 10 m wind speed (WS), ocean surface current speed (OCS), and surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). The validation of the GCMs' outputs against reanalysis data includes analysis of the interannual variability, seasonal cycle, spatial biases, and temporal trends of the simulated variables. In total, 60 combinations of models were selected for 10 variables over six study regions using the selection procedure we present here. The results show that there is neither a combination of models nor one model that has high skill in reproducing the regional climatic-relevant features of all combinations of the considered variables in target seas. Thereby, an individual subset of models was selected according to our model selection procedure for each combination of variable and Arctic or sub-Arctic sea. Following our selection procedure, the number of selected models in the individual subsets varied from 3 to 11. The paper presents a comparison of the selected model subsets and the full-model ensemble of all available CMIP5 models to reanalysis data. The selected subsets of models generally show a better performance than the full-model ensemble. Therefore, we conclude that within the task addressed in this study it is preferable to employ the model subsets determined through application of our procedure than the full-model ensemble.

New method to detect and quantify weather persistence associated with hydro-climatic extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Jascha Lehmann ◽  
Bijan Fallah ◽  
Fred Hattermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
New Method ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Height Fields

&lt;p&gt;Changes in weather persistence are of particular concern in the context of climate change as periods of longer persistence can reinforce weather extremes. In our study we apply structural image recognition methods to global ERA5 reanalysis data to identify when, where and how long isolines of atmospheric geopotential height fields run in similar tracks. We identify regions and episodes around the world in which, retrospectively, unusually long-lasting weather patterns repeatedly occurred. Concerning the temperature and precipitation meteorological fields, we derive a connection between the occurrence of weather persistence and hydro-climatic extreme events.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Based on our new method we find that weather persistence has been particularly increasing in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in summer confirming earlier studies. Here, highly populated regions like Central Europe have experienced long-term increases in persistent weather conditions of up to 4-5% between 1981 and 2019 amplifying the risk of prolonged heat waves and droughts. Further, we show that climate models tend to have difficulties in capturing the dynamics of weather persistence and thus may severely underestimate the frequency and magnitude of future extremes events in their climate projections.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1147-1167 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Viste ◽  
A. Sorteberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Relative Change

Abstract. Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. This study combines present-day observations and reanalysis data with climate model projections to estimate the amount of snow falling over the basins today and in the last decades of the 21st century. Estimates of present-day snowfall based on a combination of temperature and precipitation from reanalysis data and observations vary by factors of 2–4. The spread is large, not just between the reanalysis and the observations but also between the different observational data sets. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the climate models project reductions in annual snowfall by 30–50% in the Indus Basin, 50–60% in the Ganges Basin and 50–70% in the Brahmaputra Basin by 2071–2100. The reduction is due to increasing temperatures, as the mean of the models show constant or increasing precipitation throughout the year in most of the region. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario, the mean elevation where rain changes to snow – the rain/snow line – creeps upward by 400–900 m, in most of the region by 700–900 meters. The largest relative change in snowfall is seen in the upper westernmost sub-basins of the Brahmaputra. With the strongest forcing scenario, most of this region will have temperatures above freezing, especially in the summer. The projected reduction in annual snowfall is 65–75%. In the upper Indus, the effect of a warmer climate on snowfall is less extreme, as most of the terrain is high enough to have temperatures sufficiently far below freezing today. A 20–40% reduction in annual snowfall is projected.

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