scholarly journals Glacier evolution in high mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Doying Ji ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Eastern Himalaya ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Volume Loss ◽  
Glacier Surface

Abstract. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection may help preserve mountain glaciers by reducing summer temperatures. We examine this hypothesis for the glaciers in High Mountain Asia using a glacier mass balance model driven by climate simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The G3 and G4 schemes specify use of stratospheric sulphate aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 50 years between 2020 and 2069, and for a further 20 years after termination of geoengineering. We estimate and compare glaciers volume loss for every glacier in the region using a model based on glacier surface mass balance parameterization under climate projections from 3 Earth System Models under G3, 5 under G4 and 6 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. G3 keeps the summer mean temperature from increasing in the geoengineering period, but termination of geoengineering leads to sudden temperature rise of about 1.7 ºC and corresponding increase in glacier retreat. Glacier volume in inner Tibet and eastern Himalaya is least affected by greenhouse gas forcing, and also benefits the most from geoengineering. The ensemble mean projections suggest that glacier shrinkage over the period 2010–2069 are equivalent to sea-level rises of 8.4 mm (G3), 10.7 mm (G4), 14.7 mm (RCP 4.5) and 16.8 mm (RCP8.5). After the termination of geoengineering, annual mean volume loss rate for all the glaciers under G3 increases from 0.39 % a−1 to 0.90 % a−1, which are higher than the 0.70 % a−1 under RCP8.5 at that time. While sulphate 30 aerosol injection geoengineering may slow glacier loss in the region, it cannot prevent about a third of existing glacier coverage disappearing by 2069.

scholarly journals Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 6547-6564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Wei Cheng ◽  
Duoying Ji ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Volume Loss ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Glacier Shrinkage

Abstract. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection may help preserve mountain glaciers by reducing summer temperatures. We examine this hypothesis for the glaciers in high-mountain Asia using a glacier mass balance model driven by climate simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The G3 and G4 schemes specify use of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 50 years between 2020 and 2069, and for a further 20 years after termination of geoengineering. We estimate and compare glacier volume loss for every glacier in the region using a glacier model based on surface mass balance parameterization under climate projections from three Earth system models under G3, five models under G4, and six models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The ensemble projections suggest that glacier shrinkage over the period 2010–2069 is equivalent to sea-level rise of 9.0 ± 1.6 mm (G3), 9.8 ± 4.3 mm (G4), 15.5 ± 2.3 mm (RCP4.5), and 18.5 ± 1.7 mm (RCP8.5). Although G3 keeps the average temperature from increasing in the geoengineering period, G3 only slows glacier shrinkage by about 50 % relative to losses from RCP8.5. Approximately 72 % of glaciated area remains at 2069 under G3, as compared with about 30 % for RCP8.5. The widely reported reduction in mean precipitation expected for solar geoengineering is unlikely to be as important as the temperature-driven shift from solid to liquid precipitation for forcing Himalayan glacier change. The termination of geoengineering at 2069 under G3 leads to temperature rise of about 1.3 °C over the period 2070–2089 relative to the period 2050-2069 and corresponding increase in annual mean glacier volume loss rate from 0.17 to 1.1 % yr−1, which is higher than the 0.66 % yr−1 under RCP8.5 during 2070–2089.

scholarly journals The climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers: a 10-year simulation with a coupled atmosphere–glacier mass balance model

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1089-1104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjetil S. Aas ◽  
Thorben Dunse ◽  
Emily Collier ◽  
Thomas V. Schuler ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
A Site

Abstract. In this study we simulate the climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers with a coupled atmosphere–glacier model with 3 km grid spacing, from September 2003 to September 2013. We find a mean specific net mass balance of −257 mm w.e. yr−1, corresponding to a mean annual mass loss of about 8.7 Gt, with large interannual variability. Our results are compared with a comprehensive set of mass balance, meteorological, and satellite measurements. Model temperature biases of 0.19 and −1.9 °C are found at two glacier automatic weather station sites. Simulated climatic mass balance is mostly within about 100 mm w.e. yr−1 of stake measurements, and simulated winter accumulation at the Austfonna ice cap shows mean absolute errors of 47 and 67 mm w.e. yr−1 when compared to radar-derived values for the selected years 2004 and 2006. Comparison of modeled surface height changes from 2003 to 2008, and satellite altimetry reveals good agreement in both mean values and regional differences. The largest deviations from observations are found for winter accumulation at Hansbreen (up to around 1000 mm w.e. yr−1), a site where sub-grid topography and wind redistribution of snow are important factors. Comparison with simulations using 9 km grid spacing reveal considerable differences on regional and local scales. In addition, 3 km grid spacing allows for a much more detailed comparison with observations than what is possible with 9 km grid spacing. Further decreasing the grid spacing to 1 km appears to be less significant, although in general precipitation amounts increase with resolution. Altogether, the model compares well with observations and offers possibilities for studying glacier climatic mass balance on Svalbard both historically as well as based on climate projections.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of mountain glacier mass balance to changes in bare-ice albedo

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (75pt2) ◽  
pp. 119-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathrin Naegeli ◽  
Matthias Huss
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Mountain Glacier ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

ABSTRACT Albedo is an important parameter in the energy balance of bare-ice surfaces and modulates glacier melt rates. The prolongation of the ablation period enforces the albedo feedback and highlights the need for profound knowledge on impacts of bare-ice albedo on glacier mass balance. In this study, we assess the mass balance sensitivity of 12 Swiss glaciers with abundant long-term in-situ data on changes in bare-ice albedo. We use pixel-based bare-ice albedo derived from Landsat 8. A distributed mass-balance model is applied to the period 1997–2016 and experiments are performed to assess the impact of albedo changes on glacier mass balance. Our results indicate that glacier-wide mass-balance sensitivities to changes in bare-ice albedo correlate strongly with mean annual mass balances (r 2 = 0.81). Large alpine glaciers react more sensitively to bare-ice albedo changes due to their ablation areas being situated at lower elevations. We find average sensitivities of glacier-wide mass balance of −0.14 m w.e. a−1 per 0.1 albedo decrease. Although this value is considerably smaller than sensitivity to air temperature change, we stress the importance of the enhanced albedo feedback that will be amplified due to atmospheric warming and a suspected darkening of glacier surface in the near future.

scholarly journals Examining geodetic glacier mass balance in the eastern Pamir transition zone

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (260) ◽  
pp. 927-937
Author(s):  
Mingyang Lv ◽  
Duncan J. Quincey ◽  
Huadong Guo ◽  
Owen King ◽  
Guang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Statistical Difference ◽  
Mass Gain ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Negative Mass ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Individual Scale

AbstractGlaciers in the eastern Pamir have reportedly been gaining mass during recent decades, even though glaciers in most other regions in High Mountain Asia have been in recession. Questions still remain about whether the trend is strengthening or weakening, and how far the positive balances extend into the eastern Pamir. To address these gaps, we use three different digital elevation models to reconstruct glacier surface elevation changes over two periods (2000–09 and 2000–15/16). We characterize the eastern Pamir as a zone of transition from positive to negative mass balance with the boundary lying at the northern end of Kongur Tagh, and find that glaciers situated at higher elevations are those with the most positive balances. Most (67% of 55) glaciers displayed a net mass gain since the 21st century. This led to an increasing regional geodetic glacier mass balance from −0.06 ± 0.16 m w.e. a−1 in 2000–09 to 0.06 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 in 2000–15/16. Surge-type glaciers, which are prevalent in the eastern Pamir, showed fluctuations in mass balance on an individual scale during and after surges, but no statistical difference compared to non-surge-type glaciers when aggregated across the region.

Understanding monsoon controls on the energy- and mass-balance of glaciers in High Mountain Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Fugger ◽  
Evan Miles ◽  
Michael McCarthy ◽  
Catriona Fyffe ◽  
Marin Kneib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Mass Balance Models ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
Study Sites

<p>The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shapes the melt and accumulation patterns of glaciers in large parts of High Mountain Asia (HMA) in complex ways due to the interaction of persistent cloud-cover, large temperature amplitudes, high atmospheric water content and high precipitation rates. While the ISM dominates in the southern and eastern regions, it progressively loses influence westward towards the Karakoram, where the influence of westerlies is predominant. Previous applications of energy- and mass-balance models for glaciers in HMA have been limited to single study sites (in Khumbu, Langtang and Parlung) and a few attempted to link model results to large-scale weather patterns. While these studies have helped to understand the energy- and mass-balance of glaciers in HMA under specific local climates, a regional perspective is still missing. In this study, we use a full energy- and mass-balance model together  with eight on-glacier AWS datasets around HMA to investigate how ISM conditions influence glacier-surface energy and mass balance. In particular, we look at how debris-covered and debris-free glaciers respond differently to the ISM, validating our results against independent in-situ measurements. This work is fundamental to the development of parameterizations of glacier melt for long-term hydrological studies and to the understanding of the present and future HMA cryosphere and water budget evolution.</p>

scholarly journals The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (71) ◽  
pp. 223-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Ran Ding ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Summer Temperatures

AbstractWe estimate all the individual glacier area and volume changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) by 2050 based on Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 4.0, using different methods of assessing sensitivity to summer temperatures driven by a regional climate model and the IPCC A1B radiative forcing scenario. A large range of sea-level rise variation comes from varying equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to summer temperatures. This sensitivity and also the glacier mass-balance gradients with elevation have the largest coefficients of variability (amounting to ~50%) among factors examined. Prescribing ELA sensitivities from energy-balance models produces the highest sea-level rise (9.2 mm, or 0.76% of glacier volume a–1), while the ELA sensitivities estimated from summer temperatures at Chinese meteorological stations and also from 1°x1° gridded temperatures in the Berkeley Earth database produce 3.6 and 3.8 mm, respectively. Different choices of the initial ELA or summer precipitation lead to 15% uncertainties in modelled glacier volume loss. RGI version 4.0 produces 20% lower sea-level rise than version 2.0. More surface mass-balance observations, meteorological data from the glaciated areas, and detailed satellite altimetry data can provide better estimates of sea-level rise in the future.

Evolution of the debris-covered Miage Glacier

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Stefaniak ◽  
Ben Robson ◽  
Simon Cook ◽  
Ben Clutterbuck ◽  
Nicholas Midgley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Debris Cover ◽  
Geomorphological Changes ◽  
Miage Glacier

<p>Glaciers in high-mountain regions typically exhibit a debris cover that moderates their response to climatic change. Here we present an integrated study that integrates long-term observations of debris-covered glacier mass balance, velocity, surface debris evolution and geomorphological changes (such as ponds and ice cliffs) of Miage Glacier, Italian Alps over the period 1952 – 2018. Analysis of the evolution of Miage Glacier highlighted a reduction in glacier activity associated with a period of sustained negative mass balance (-0.86 ± 0.27 metres per year water equivalent [m w.e. a<sup>-1</sup>]) and a substantial reduction in surface velocity (-46%). Ice mass loss of Miage Glacier was quantified using satellite imagery and derived digital elevation models (DEMs) applying the geodetic approach over a 28-year time period, 1990 – 2018. Temporal analysis highlighted an increase in surface lowering rates from 2012 – 2018. Further, the increase in debris-cover extent, supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs was evident since the 1990s. Supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs accounted for up to 8 times the magnitude of the average glacier surface lowering, whilst only covering 1.2 – 1.5% of the glacier area.</p><p>Ground-based photogrammetry and bathymetry surveys undertaken in 2017 and 2018 indicated the total volume of water storage at Miage Glacier increased by 46%, however, intermittent drainage events suggest this is highly variable over both seasonal and annual timescales. All ice cliffs underwent substantial vertical retreat up<sup></sup>to a maximum rate of -8.15 ma<sup>-1 </sup>resulting in ice loss of 39,569 m<sup>3</sup>. Thus, ice loss from supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs are important to account for and have the potential to substantially impact future glacier evolution.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3661-3677 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Lutz ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
A. Gobiet ◽  
F. Pellicciotti ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

scholarly journals Energy balance model of mass balance and its sensitivity to meteorological variability on Urumqi River Glacier No.1 in the Chinese Tien Shan

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjun Che ◽  
Mingjun Zhang ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Yanqiang Wei ◽  
Zhuotong Nan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality

Abstract Energy exchanges between atmosphere and glacier surface control the net energy available for snow and ice melt. Based on the meteorological records in Urumqi River Glacier No.1 (URGN1) in the Chinese Tien Shan during the period of 2012–2015, an energy-mass balance model was run to assess the sensitivity of glacier mass balance to air temperature (T), precipitation (P), incoming shortwave radiation (Sin), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (u) in the URGN1, respectively. The results showed that the glacier melting was mainly controlled by the net shortwave radiation. The glacier mass balance was very sensitivity to albedo for snow and the time scale determining how long the snow albedo approaches the albedo for firn after a snowfall. The net annual mass balance of URGN1 was decreased by 0.44 m w.e. when increased by 1 K in air temperature, while it was increased 0.30 m w.e. when decreased by 1 K. The net total mass balance increased by 0.55 m w.e. when increased precipitation by 10%, while it was decreased by 0.61 m w.e. when decreased precipitation by 10%. We also found that the change in glacier mass balance was non-linear when increased or decreased input condition of climate change. The sensitivity of mass balance to increase in Sin, u, and RH were at −0.015 m w.e.%−1, −0.020 m w.e.%−1, and −0.018 m w.e.%−1, respectively, while they were at 0.012 m w.e.%−1, 0.027 m w.e.%−1, and 0.017 m w.e.%−1 when decreasing in those conditions, respectively. In addition, the simulations of coupled perturbation for temperature and precipitation indicated that the precipitation needed to increase by 23% could justly compensate to the additional mass loss due to increase by 1 K in air temperature. We also found that the sensitivities of glacier mass balance in response to climate change were different in different mountain ranges, which were mainly resulted from the discrepancies in the ratio of snowfall to precipitation during the ablation season, the amount of melt energy during the ablation season, and precipitation seasonality in the different local regions.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the annual mass balance of the Echaurren Norte glacier (Central Andes, 33.5° S) using local and regional hydroclimatic data

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 927-940 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano H. Masiokas ◽  
Duncan A. Christie ◽  
Carlos Le Quesne ◽  
Pierre Pitte ◽  
Lucas Ruiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Positive Mass ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Andes

Abstract. Despite the great number and variety of glaciers in southern South America, in situ glacier mass-balance records are extremely scarce and glacier–climate relationships are still poorly understood in this region. Here we use the longest (>  35 years) and most complete in situ mass-balance record, available for the Echaurren Norte glacier (ECH) in the Andes at  ∼  33.5° S, to develop a minimal glacier surface mass-balance model that relies on nearby monthly precipitation and air temperature data as forcing. This basic model is able to explain 78 % of the variance in the annual glacier mass-balance record over the 1978–2013 calibration period. An attribution assessment identified precipitation variability as the dominant forcing modulating annual mass balances at ECH, with temperature variations likely playing a secondary role. A regionally averaged series of mean annual streamflow records from both sides of the Andes between  ∼  30 and 37° S is then used to estimate, through simple linear regression, this glacier's annual mass-balance variations since 1909. The reconstruction model captures 68 % of the observed glacier mass-balance variability and shows three periods of sustained positive mass balances embedded in an overall negative trend over the past 105 years. The three periods of sustained positive mass balances (centered in the 1920s–1930s, in the 1980s and in the first decade of the 21st century) coincide with several documented glacier advances in this region. Similar trends observed in other shorter glacier mass-balance series suggest that the Echaurren Norte glacier reconstruction is representative of larger-scale conditions and could be useful for more detailed glaciological, hydrological and climatological assessments in this portion of the Andes.

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