scholarly journals Evaluation and Error Apportionment of an Ensemble of Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Modelling Systems: Multi-variable Temporal and Spatial Breakdown

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efisio Solazzo ◽  
Roberto Bianconi ◽  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Gabriele Curci ◽  
Ummugulsum Alyuz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Transport Modelling

Abstract. Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) helping to detect causes of models error, and iii) identifying the processes and scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overall sense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance and covariance) can help to assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analysed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intra-day) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII. The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact of model inputs (emissions and boundary conditions) and poor representation of the stable boundary layer on model bias, results also highlighted the high inter-dependencies among meteorological and chemical variables, as well as among their errors. This indicates that the evaluation of air quality model performance for individual pollutants needs to be supported by complementary analysis of meteorological fields and chemical precursors to provide results that are more insightful from a model development perspective. The error embedded in the emissions is dominant for primary species (CO, PM, NO) and largely outweighs the error from any other source. The uncertainty in meteorological fields is most relevant to ozone. Some further aspects emerged whose interpretation requires additional consideration, such as, among others, the uniformity of the synoptic error being region and model-independent, observed for several pollutants; the source of unexplained variance for the diurnal component; and the type of error caused by deposition and at which scale.

scholarly journals Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems: multivariable temporal and spatial breakdown

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 3001-3054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efisio Solazzo ◽  
Roberto Bianconi ◽  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Gabriele Curci ◽  
Paolo Tuccella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Transport Modeling ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Modeling Systems ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modeling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and North American continents, this study aims at (i) apportioning error to the responsible processes using timescale analysis, (ii)  helping to detect causes of model error, and (iii) identifying the processes and temporal scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2. 5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overall sense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance, and covariance) can help assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analyzed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intraday) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII. The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact of model inputs (emission and boundary conditions) and poor representation of the stable boundary layer on model bias, results also highlighted the high interdependencies among meteorological and chemical variables, as well as among their errors. This indicates that the evaluation of air quality model performance for individual pollutants needs to be supported by complementary analysis of meteorological fields and chemical precursors to provide results that are more insightful from a model development perspective. This will require evaluation methods that are able to frame the impact on error of processes, conditions, and fluxes at the surface. For example, error due to emission and boundary conditions is dominant for primary species (CO, particulate matter (PM)), while errors due to meteorology and chemistry are most relevant to secondary species, such as ozone. Some further aspects emerged whose interpretation requires additional consideration, such as the uniformity of the synoptic error being region- and model-independent, observed for several pollutants; the source of unexplained variance for the diurnal component; and the type of error caused by deposition and at which scale.

scholarly journals Air Quality Modeling with WRF-Chem v3.5 in East and South Asia: sensitivity to emissions and evaluation of simulated air quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 9373-9413 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Zhong ◽  
E. Saikawa ◽  
Y. Liu ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
L. W. Horowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Mixing Ratios

Abstract. We conducted simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.5 to study air quality in East and South Asia at a spatial resolution of 20 km × 20 km. We find large discrepancies between two existing emissions inventories: the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 4.2 (EDGAR) at the provincial level in China, with maximum differences up to 500 % for CO emissions, 190 % for NO, and 160 % for primary PM10. Such differences in the magnitude and the spatial distribution of emissions for various species lead to 40–70 % difference in surface PM10 concentrations, 16–20 % in surface O3 mixing ratios, and over 100 % in SO2 and NO2 mixing ratios in the polluted areas of China. Our sensitivity run shows WRF-Chem is sensitive to emissions, with the REAS-based simulation reproducing observed concentrations and mixing ratios better than the EDGAR-based simulation for July 2007. We conduct further model simulations using REAS emissions for January, April, July, and October in 2007 and evaluate simulations with available ground-level observations. The model results show clear regional variations in the seasonal cycle of surface PM10 and O3 over East and South Asia. The model meets the air quality model performance criteria for both PM10 (mean fractional bias, MFB ≤ ± 60 %) and O3 (MFB ≤ ± 15 %) in most of the observation sites, although the model underestimates PM10 over Northeast China in January. The model predicts the observed SO2 well at sites in Japan, while it tends to overestimate SO2 in China in July and October. The model underestimates most observed NO2 in all four months. These findings suggest that future model development and evaluation of emission inventories and models are needed for particulate matter and gaseous pollutants in East and South Asia.

scholarly journals Ensemble Predictions of Air Pollutants in China in 2013 for Health Effects Studies Using WRF/CMAQ Modeling System with Four Emission Inventories

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianlin Hu ◽  
Xun Li ◽  
Lin Huang ◽  
Qi Ying ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Emission Inventories ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Future Health

Abstract. Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effects analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used tools to provide detailed information of spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of pollutants. The accuracy of CTMs' predictions in China is largely affected by the uncertainties of public available emission inventories. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) were used in this study to simulate air quality in China in 2013. Four sets of simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 with the four inventories generally meet the criteria of model performance, but difference exists in different pollutants and different regions among the inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories under the constraint that sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations from all the cities was minimized. The ensemble annual concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFE) of the ensemble predicted annual PM2.5 at the 60 cities are −0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (−0.25–−0.16) and MFE (0.26–0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual 1-hour peak O3 (O3-1 h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06–0.19 and MNE of 0.16–0.22 of the individual predictions. The ensemble predictions agree better with observations with daily, monthly, and annual averaging times in all regions of China for both PM2.5 and O3-1 h. The study demonstrates that ensemble predictions by combining predictions from individual emission inventories can improve the accuracy of predicted temporal and spatial distributions of air pollutants. This study is the first ensemble model study in China using multiple emission inventories and the results are publicly available for future health effects studies.

Resampling and extreme value statistics in air quality model performance evaluation

1985 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1503-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.T. Rao ◽  
G. Sistla ◽  
V. Pagnotti ◽  
W.B. Petersen ◽  
J.S. Irwin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Statistics ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Model Performance Evaluation

scholarly journals Evaluation of European air quality modelled by CAMx including the volatility basis set scheme

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 10313-10332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giancarlo Ciarelli ◽  
Sebnem Aksoyoglu ◽  
Monica Crippa ◽  
Jose-Luis Jimenez ◽  
Eriko Nemitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Basis Set ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Aerosol Mass ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Compensation Of Errors

Abstract. Four periods of EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) intensive measurement campaigns (June 2006, January 2007, September–October 2008 and February–March 2009) were modelled using the regional air quality model CAMx with VBS (volatility basis set) approach for the first time in Europe within the framework of the EURODELTA-III model intercomparison exercise. More detailed analysis and sensitivity tests were performed for the period of February–March 2009 and June 2006 to investigate the uncertainties in emissions as well as to improve the modelling of organic aerosol (OA). Model performance for selected gas phase species and PM2.5 was evaluated using the European air quality database AirBase. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3) were found to be overestimated for all the four periods, with O3 having the largest mean bias during June 2006 and January–February 2007 periods (8.9 pbb and 12.3 ppb mean biases respectively). In contrast, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) were found to be underestimated for all the four periods. CAMx reproduced both total concentrations and monthly variations of PM2.5 for all the four periods with average biases ranging from −2.1 to 1.0 µg m−3. Comparisons with AMS (aerosol mass spectrometer) measurements at different sites in Europe during February–March 2009 showed that in general the model overpredicts the inorganic aerosol fraction and underpredicts the organic one, such that the good agreement for PM2.5 is partly due to compensation of errors. The effect of the choice of VBS scheme on OA was investigated as well. Two sensitivity tests with volatility distributions based on previous chamber and ambient measurements data were performed. For February–March 2009 the chamber case reduced the total OA concentrations by about 42 % on average. In contrast, a test based on ambient measurement data increased OA concentrations by about 42 % for the same period bringing model and observations into better agreement. Comparison with the AMS data at the rural Swiss site Payerne in June 2006 shows no significant improvement in modelled OA concentration. Further sensitivity tests with increased biogenic and anthropogenic emissions suggest that OA in Payerne was affected by changes in emissions from residential heating during the February–March 2009 whereas it was more sensitive to biogenic precursors in June 2006.

scholarly journals High Resolution Air Quality Forecasting over Prague within the URBI PRAGENSI Project: Model Performance during the Winter Period and the Effect of Urban Parameterization on PM

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Ďoubalová ◽  
Peter Huszár ◽  
Kryštof Eben ◽  
Nina Benešová ◽  
Michal Belda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Boundary Layer Height ◽  
Project Model ◽  
Set Up

The overall impact of urban environments on the atmosphere is the result of many different nonlinear processes, and their reproduction requires complex modeling approaches. The parameterization of these processes in the models can have large impacts on the model outputs. In this study, the evaluation of a WRF/Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) forecast modeling system set up for Prague, the Czech Republic, within the project URBI PRAGENSI is presented. To assess the impacts of urban parameterization in WRF, in this case with the BEP+BEM (Building Environment Parameterization linked to Building Energy Model) urban canopy scheme, on Particulate Matter (PM) simulations, a simulation was performed for a winter pollution episode and compared to a non-urbanized run with BULK treatment. The urbanized scheme led to an average increase in temperature at 2 m by 2 ∘ C, a decrease in wind speed by 0.5 m s − 1 , a decrease in relative humidity by 5%, and an increase in planetary boundary layer height by 100 m. Based on the evaluation against observations, the overall model error was reduced. These impacts were propagated to the modeled PM concentrations, reducing them on average by 15–30 μ g m − 3 and 10–15 μ g m − 3 for PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively. In general, the urban parameterization led to a larger underestimation of the PM values, but yielded a better representation of the diurnal variations.

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