scholarly journals Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing for the period 1990–2015

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
Wenche Aas ◽  
Ribu Cherian ◽  
William Collins ◽  
Greg Faluvegi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Emission Data ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing, using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce the large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g., −1 to −3 %/yr in aerosols over US and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosols changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by about +0.2 W m−2, with approximately 1/3 due to ozone. This increase is stronger positive than reported in IPCC AR5. The main reason for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period is the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to the IPCC, and higher black carbon emissions.

scholarly journals Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990–2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 2709-2720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
Wenche Aas ◽  
Ribu Cherian ◽  
William Collins ◽  
Greg Faluvegi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Emission Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. −1 to −3 % yr−1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17 ± 0.08 W m−2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

Drivers of (non-)linear Eocene surface warming in the DeepMIP ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Steinig ◽  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Ran Feng ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Mean

<p>The early Eocene greenhouse represents the warmest interval of the Cenozoic and therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how the climate system operates under elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels similar to those projected for the end of the 21st century. Early Eocene geological records indicate a large increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to present day (by ~14°C) and a greatly reduced meridional temperature gradient (by ~30% in SST). However, reproducing these large-scale climate features at reasonable CO<sub>2</sub> levels still poses a challenge for current climate models. Recent modelling studies indicate an important role for shortwave (SW) cloud feedbacks to drive increases in climate sensitivity with global warming, which helps to close the gap between simulated and reconstructed Eocene global warmth and temperature gradient. Nevertheless, the presence of such state-dependent feedbacks and their relative strengths in other models remain unclear.</p><p>In this study, we perform a systematic investigation of the simulated surface warming and the underlying mechanisms in the recently published DeepMIP ensemble. The DeepMIP early Eocene simulations use identical paleogeographic boundary conditions and include six models with suitable output: CESM1.2_CAM5, GFDL_CM2.1, HadCM3B_M2.1aN, IPSLCM5A2, MIROC4m and NorESM1_F. We advance previous energy balance analysis by applying the approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique to quantify the individual contributions of surface albedo, cloud and non-cloud atmospheric changes to the simulated Eocene top-of-the-atmosphere SW flux anomalies. We further compare the strength of these planetary albedo feedbacks to changes in the longwave atmospheric emissivity and meridional heat transport in the warm Eocene climate. Particular focus lies in the sensitivity of the feedback strengths to increasing global mean temperatures in experiments at a range of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations between x1 to x9 preindustrial levels.</p><p>Preliminary results indicate that all models that provide data for at least 3 different CO<sub>2</sub> levels show an increase of the equilibrium climate sensitivity at higher global mean temperatures. This is associated with an increase of the overall strength of the positive SW cloud feedback with warming in those models. This nonlinear behavior seems to be related to both a reduction and optical thinning of low-level clouds, albeit with intermodel differences in the relative importance of the two mechanisms. We further show that our new APRP results can differ significantly from previous estimates based on cloud radiative forcing alone, especially in high-latitude areas with large surface albedo changes. We also find large intermodel variability and state-dependence in meridional heat transport modulated by changes in the atmospheric latent heat transport. Ongoing work focuses on the spatial patterns of the climate feedbacks and the implications for the simulated meridional temperature gradients.</p>

scholarly journals Anticorrelated observed and modeled trends in dissolved oceanic oxygen over the last 50 years

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 4595-4626 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Stramma ◽  
A. Oschlies ◽  
S. Schmidtko
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Model Configuration ◽  
Pattern Correlation ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO) associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 years. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 years, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is −0.063 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO2-induced climate change. However, the correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 years. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO2-induced enhancement of the C:N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.026 to −0.046 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to some extent, magnitude of observed ocean deoxygenation, this degree of realism does not necessarily apply to simulated regional patterns and the representation of processes involved in their generation. Further analysis of the processes that can explain the discrepancies between observed and modeled DO trends is required to better understand the climate sensitivity of oceanic oxygen fields and predict potential DO changes in the future.

scholarly journals Hydrogen-Nitrogen Greenhouse Warming in Earth's Early Atmosphere

Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 339 (6115) ◽  
pp. 64-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Wordsworth ◽  
Raymond Pierrehumbert
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Early Earth ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
The Past ◽  
Early Atmosphere ◽  
Global Cooling ◽  
Surface Liquid ◽  
Atmospheric Mass ◽  
Global Mean

Understanding how Earth has sustained surface liquid water throughout its history remains a key challenge, given that the Sun’s luminosity was much lower in the past. Here we show that with an atmospheric composition consistent with the most recent constraints, the early Earth would have been significantly warmed by H2-N2collision–induced absorption. With two to three times the present-day atmospheric mass of N2and a H2mixing ratio of 0.1, H2-N2warming would be sufficient to raise global mean surface temperatures above 0°C under 75% of present-day solar flux, with CO2levels only 2 to 25 times the present-day values. Depending on their time of emergence and diversification, early methanogens may have caused global cooling via the conversion of H2and CO2to CH4, with potentially observable consequences in the geological record.

scholarly journals Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 26297-26348
Author(s):  
S. D. D'Andrea ◽  
J. C. Acosta Navarro ◽  
S. C. Farina ◽  
C. E. Scott ◽  
A. Rap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Secondary Organic Aerosol ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Organic Aerosol ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Past Millennium

Abstract. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature and CO2 concentrations. Recent model reconstructions of BVOC emissions over the past millennium predicted changes in dominant secondary organic aerosol (SOA) producing BVOC classes (isoprene, monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes). The reconstructions predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased (land-use changes to crop/grazing land dominate the reduction), while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased (temperature increases dominate the increases); however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. These BVOC changes have largely been anthropogenic in nature, and land-use change was shown to have the most dramatic effect by decreasing isoprene emissions. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on SOA formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g. SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) held at present day values and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of >25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in direct plus indirect aerosol radiative effect of >0.5 W m−2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m−2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between −0.008 and −0.056 W m−2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a~largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.

scholarly journals A Re-evaluation of Climate Sensitivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Harold Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Paleoclimate Data

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the change in global mean temperature expected to result from doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels. Extensive research during the past 40 years has not reduced the uncertainty associated with ECS. Sherwood et al. [1] applied Bayesian statistics to evidence from climate-process physics, historical observations and earlier proxies to reduce the range of ECS from 1.5 – 4.5 K to 2.6 – 4.1 K. This paper examines their methods and many of the assumptions they made. It also evaluates two additional periods in the Holocene to show that factors other than CO2 drove recent climate change. It identifies potential systematic errors resulting from adding non-equilibrium short-term adjustments to the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and from underestimating the effects of solar irradiance, ocean currents and aerosols. These factors have resulted in estimates of the forcing by CO2 that far exceed the apparent effects in paleoclimate data.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Brown Clouds in the Himalayas: first two years of continuous observations at the Nepal-Climate Observatory at Pyramid (5079 m)

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 4823-4885 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bonasoni ◽  
P. Laj ◽  
A. Marinoni ◽  
M. Sprenger ◽  
F. Angelini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
High Himalayas

Abstract. South Asia is strongly influenced by the so-called Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), a wide polluted layer extending from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayas during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons (November to April). This thick, grey-brown haze blanket substantially interacts with the incoming solar radiation, causing a cooling of the Earth's surface and a warming of the atmosphere, thus influencing the monsoon system and climate. In this area, the Himalayan region, particularly sensitive to climate change, offers a unique opportunity to detect global change processes and to analyse the influence of anthropogenic pollution on background atmospheric conditions through continuous monitoring activities. This paper provides a detailed description of the atmospheric conditions characterizing the high Himalayas, thanks to continuous observations begun in March 2006 at the Nepal Climate Observatory – Pyramid (NCO-P) located at 5079 m a.s.l. on the southern foothills of Mt. Everest, in the framework of ABC-UNEP and SHARE-Ev-K2-CNR projects. Besides giving an overview of the measurement site and experimental activities, the work presents an in-depth characterization of meteorological conditions and air-mass circulation at NCO-P during the first two years of activity (March 2006–February 2008). The mean values of atmospheric pressure, temperature and wind speed recorded at the site were: 551 hPa, −3.0 °C, 4.7 m s−1, respectively. The highest seasonal values of temperature (1.7 °C) and relative humidity (94%) were registered during the monsoon season, which was also characterized by thick clouds present in about 80% of the afternoon hours and by a frequency of cloud-free sky less than 10%. The lowest temperature and relative humidity values were registered during winter, −6.3 °C and 22%, respectively, the season being characterised by mainly cloud-free sky conditions and rare thick clouds. The summer monsoon influenced the rain precipitation (seasonal mean 237 mm), while wind was dominated by flows from the bottom of the valley (S-SW) and upper mountain (N-NE). In relation to seasonal weather conditions, the time series variability of black carbon and dust particles (optical active aerosols) and ozone (regional greenhouse gas) were analysed, as they are significant constituents of the Atmospheric Brown Cloud and strongly influence the atmospheric radiative forcing. The highest seasonal values of black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) and dust particles were observed during the pre-monsoon season (316.9 ng m−3, 60.9 ppbv, 0.37 cm−3, respectively), while the lowest concentrations occurred during the monsoon for BC and O3 (49.6 ng m−3 and 33.6 ppbv, respectively) and post-monsoon for dust particles (0.07 cm−3). The seasonal cycles of these compounds are influenced both by the local mountain wind system and by the three principal large-scale circulation regimes: Westerly, South-Westerly and Regional, as shown by the analysis of in-situ meteorological parameters and 5-day LAGRANTO back-trajectories. In particular, the analysis of data representative of synoptic-scale circulation showed that the highest median values (O3: 68 ppbv, BC: 124 ng m−3, dust particles: 0.44 cm−3, respectively) were related with air-masses from polluted and arid regions in the Indian subcontinent, as well as the Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf. Furthermore, it was documented that in 90% of pre-monsoon days the Khumbu valley represents a "direct channel" able to transport polluted air-masses from the Asian Brown Cloud up to NCO-P and to higher altitudes. On such days the average day-time BC concentration (625 ng m−3) was at least double that recorded on the remaining days, even if during some pollution hot spots BC daily values increased up to 1000 ng m−3. In this study, two years of Himalayan observation activities carried out at NCO-P, in conjunction with model circulation analyses, provide some of the first evidence that polluted air-masses linked to the Atmospheric Brown Cloud can reach the high Himalayas, in particular during the pre-monsoon season, influencing the pristine atmospheric composition.

scholarly journals Emission, Transport, and Deposition of visible Plastics in an Estuary and the Baltic Sea—a Monitoring and Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Schernewski ◽  
Hagen Radtke ◽  
Esther Robbe ◽  
Mirco Haseler ◽  
Rahel Hauk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Plastic Pollution ◽  
Emission Data ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Aim was to assess whether a comprehensive approach linking existing knowledge with monitoring and modeling can provide an improved insight into coastal and marine plastics pollution. We focused on large micro- and mesoplastic (1–25 mm) and selected macroplastic items. Emission calculations, samplings in the Warnow river and estuary (water body and bottom sediments) and a flood accumulation zone monitoring served as basis for model simulations on transport and behavior in the entire Baltic Sea. Considered were the most important pathways, sewage overflow and stormwater. The coastline monitoring together with calculations allowed estimating plastics emissions for Rostock city and the Warnow catchment. Average concentrations at the Warnow river mouth were 0.016 particles/m³ and in the estuary 0.14 particles/m³ (300 µm net). The estuary and nearby Baltic Sea beaches were hot-spots for plastic accumulation with 6–31 particles/m². With increasing distance from the estuary, the concentrations dropped to 0.3 particles/m². This spatial pattern, the plastic pollution gradients and the observed annual accumulation values were consistent with the model results. Indicator items for sewer overflow and stormwater emissions exist, but were only found at low numbers in the environment. The considered visible plastics alone can hardly serve as indicator for microplastic pollution (<1 mm). The use of up-scaled emission data as input for Baltic Sea model simulations provided information on large scale emission, transport and deposition patterns of visible plastics. The results underline the importance of plastic retention in rivers and estuaries.

scholarly journals Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 3243-3266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim Segschneider ◽  
Birgit Schneider ◽  
Vyacheslav Khon
Keyword(s):  
Late Holocene ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Marine Biogeochemistry ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Atmospheric Pco2

Abstract. Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere–ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a – perhaps accelerated – continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere–ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere–ocean system.

scholarly journals Constraining N<sub>2</sub>O emissions since 1940 using firn air isotope measurements in both hemispheres

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 4539-4564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markella Prokopiou ◽  
Patricia Martinerie ◽  
Célia J. Sapart ◽  
Emmanuel Witrant ◽  
Guillaume Monteil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Mole Fraction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Site Preference ◽  
Ocean Water ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. N2O is currently the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in terms of radiative forcing and its atmospheric mole fraction is rising steadily. To quantify the growth rate and its causes over the past decades, we performed a multi-site reconstruction of the atmospheric N2O mole fraction and isotopic composition using new and previously published firn air data collected from Greenland and Antarctica in combination with a firn diffusion and densification model. The multi-site reconstruction showed that while the global mean N2O mole fraction increased from (290 ± 1) nmol mol−1 in 1940 to (322 ± 1) nmol mol−1 in 2008, the isotopic composition of atmospheric N2O decreased by (−2.2 ± 0.2) ‰ for δ15Nav, (−1.0 ± 0.3) ‰ for δ18O, (−1.3 ± 0.6) ‰ for δ15Nα, and (−2.8 ± 0.6) ‰ for δ15Nβ over the same period. The detailed temporal evolution of the mole fraction and isotopic composition derived from the firn air model was then used in a two-box atmospheric model (comprising a stratospheric box and a tropospheric box) to infer changes in the isotopic source signature over time. The precise value of the source strength depends on the choice of the N2O lifetime, which we choose to fix at 123 years. The average isotopic composition over the investigated period is δ15Nav =  (−7.6 ± 0.8) ‰ (vs. air-N2), δ18O  =  (32.2 ± 0.2) ‰ (vs. Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water – VSMOW) for δ18O, δ15Nα =  (−3.0 ± 1.9) ‰ and δ15Nβ =  (−11.7 ± 2.3) ‰. δ15Nav, and δ15Nβ show some temporal variability, while for the other signatures the error bars of the reconstruction are too large to retrieve reliable temporal changes. Possible processes that may explain trends in 15N are discussed. The 15N site preference ( = δ15Nα − δ15Nβ) provides evidence of a shift in emissions from denitrification to nitrification, although the uncertainty envelopes are large.

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