scholarly journals The Financial Driver of Business Cycle Synchronization

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Tiago TRANCOSO ◽  
Sofia GOMES
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Structural Similarity ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Factorial Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper measures the impact of financial integration on business cycle synchronization (BCS) using a multivariate factorial approach. By allowing bilateral financial integration to load both on de facto quantity and price measures, positive and strong indirect effects of financial integration are found on BCS, running through real channels such as trade integration and structural similarity.

Economic Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in Asia

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Gong ◽  
Soyoung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper examines the effects of internal (or regional) vs. external (inter-regional) integration and of trade vs. financial integration on regional business cycle synchronization in Asia. The empirical results show the following: (1) similar and strong common external linkages have significant positive effects on regional business cycle synchronization; (2) after controlling for external linkages, internal trade integration has a positive effect on regional business cycle synchronization but internal financial integration has a negative effect; and (3) the measures of external linkages, particularly the measure of external financial linkages, are more important than those of internal linkages in explaining regional business cycle co-movements.

Business Cycle Synchronization and Vertical Trade Integration: A Case Study of the Eurozone and East Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 20170101
Author(s):  
Ayako Saiki
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Euro Adoption ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Government Initiative ◽  
Product Segmentation ◽  
The Impact

Business cycle synchronization is one of the crucial conditions for a currency union to be successful. Frankel and Rose (1998) argued that increased trade after euro adoption would increase business cycle synchronization ex-ante. However, the fallout of the Eurozone forcefully demonstrated that their optimistic prediction did not turn out to be true. One thing Frankel and Rose (1998) did not examine is how different types of trade (inter vs. intra, vertical vs. horizontal, etc.) intensify/dampens business cycle synchronization. In this light, this paper empirically examines how different types of trade affect business cycle synchronization in what way. This study takes two major economic blocs that have been going under rapid economic integrations: The original Eurozone members and East Asia – integration of former mainly developing by European government initiative and the latter naturally forming by the global supply chain and associated product segmentation. Comparing these two very different economic blocs with very different factor endowment structures would give us a more convincing answer to how different types of trade can influence business cycle synchronization differently. Our key finding is that, on the contrary to Frankel and Rose (1998) , the impact of increased trade intensity on business cycle co-movement is ambiguous. The impact of trade on business cycle synchronization depends on types of trade. Intra-industry trade, especially vertical intra-industry trade which is rapidly growing in East Asia, has a strong positive effect on business cycle synchronization while inter-industry trade does not.

Economic Integration and Changes in the Business Cycle in East Asia: Is the Region Decoupling from the Rest of the World?

2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yung Chul Park ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The Business Cycle

Countries in East Asia (EA) have made a great deal of progress in integrating their economies since the early 1990s. There has been a sustained increase in intra-regional trade in EA. On finance, however, regional financial integration has been lagging behind trade integration and EA has reached out to global financial markets to effect deeper global integration. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of intra-regional and extra-regional financial integration on changes in the pattern of EA's business cycle since 1990 to see whether there is any ground for “decoupling” of EA from the United States and the EU. On trade relations, the empirical results show that deepening trade integration contributes to more synchronized output movements among EA countries. There is also evidence that financial integration enhances more synchronization of output, but because its impact is not strong, the extra-regional integration does not necessarily dispute the prediction that EA's output movement has become more idiosyncratic than before, and therefore less closely tied with that of the United States.

scholarly journals Pooled Mean Group Approach to Test the Determinants of Financial Integration: Evidence From OECD and G20 Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 366
Author(s):  
Ahliman Abbasov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the role of financial liberalization, trade integration, economic growth and global financial crisis on financial integration level of selected OECD and G20 countries during the period of 2000-2016. PMG technique has been implemented to estimate the ARDL model. Regression results suggest a statistically significant long run co-integration relationship between financial integration and independent variables. Analysis also concludes that there are both long run and short run positive impact of trade integration level on financial integration level. The study also concludes that the global financial crisis has had a negative influence on global financial integration both in the short run and long run. But according to the regression results the impact of financial liberalization on the actual financial integration level of the countries only appears in the long run. Results also indicate that positive impact of economic growth on financial globalization level appears only in the long run.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization: is it affected by inflation targeting credibility?

SERIEs ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-177
Author(s):  
Carlos Delgado ◽  
Iván Araya ◽  
Gabriel Pino
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Credibility Measure ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We empirically study the impact of inflation targeting credibility on business cycle synchronization with G-7 economies. To do this, we use a sample of 15 inflation targeting countries to develop and calculate a reputation-based credibility measure for long- and short-term memory. By using dynamic multipliers through a panel vector autoregressive model, our main findings indicate that greater credibility allows for greater anchoring of inflation expectations by economic agents. This would lead to a greater effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the evolution of prices, allowing the output gap to be more sensitive to external aggregate demand shocks. Therefore, countries with inflation targeting regimes must develop and maintain credibility for their monetary policy if they want to encourage greater interactions with the rest of the world.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document