scholarly journals SIR modelling of COVID-19 with cumulative cases, deaths, recovered and active cases in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (08) ◽  
pp. 246-256
Author(s):  
Sourav Das ◽  
◽  
Vikas Garg ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future

COVID-19 which has spread internationally very rapidly and has become a pandemic. In this research paper, we set forward a statistical model called SIR-Poisson helps us to determine the spread of infectious disease of COVID-19 in India. The proposed SIR-Poisson model is able to predict the range of the infected cases in a future period. It is also used to detect the transmission of the COVID-19. Using the SIR-Poisson model and based on daily reported we attempted to predict the future disease period over 104 days.

scholarly journals FDI Time Series Forecasts: Evidence from Emerging Markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Dobrota ◽  
Nikola Zornić ◽  
Aleksandar Marković
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Southeastern Europe ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
The Future

Research Question: This paper investigates the trend and flow of foreign direct investments (FDI) in emerging markets, with the focus on FDI in Serbia in comparison with akin countries from the region. Motivation: FDI is an important factor of growth and prosperity in developing countries. It largely influences trade, productivity, and economic development of a receiving country. Based on UNCTAD’s World Investment Report of 2019, the share of global FDI in developing countries was 54 per cent, which was a record. Recently, Serbia has been recognized as one of the most popular destinations for FDI in Southeastern Europe. This motivated us to analyze the chances and possibilities of enlargement of FDI in Serbia, as well in other Balkan countries. Idea: The main idea of the paper is to analyze and estimate time series of FDI net inflows for Serbia. We strive to investigate whether FDI demonstrates the durable growth in the future period of time. Furthermore, we compare the state of Serbian FDI with the former Yugoslav countries, in search for disparities or similarities. Data: We observed the FDI net inflows that are measured in current US dollars, while the data were retrieved from the World Bank database. The earliest available time point is 1992, while the latest available year of observation is 2018. Tools: We estimated the FDI net flow time series using a list of suitable ARIMA models, and we have chosen the best model fit among them using AIC and BIC criteria. Findings: We have found that Serbia and North Macedonia show a mild growth in future investments. A significant percentage of the cumulative FDI inflows from EU companies have been invested precisely in Serbia, while in North Macedonia, fostering FDI has been promoted as one of the main instruments for employment and economic development. Oher Yugoslav countries tend to stagnate in the future period, which is in literature called a negative ‘Western Balkans’ effect on FDI. Contribution: Findings of the mild growth in FDI inflows in Serbia and North Macedonia contribute to the policy of attracting the FDI inflows in the countries of Southeastern Europe.

scholarly journals How to Humanize Technology in Smart Cities

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
Zvi Weinstein
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Technology Innovations ◽  
The Future

The article describes a personal point of view on the relationships between technology innovations in smart cities and how they are used for the benefits of the residents. Are they technologically or humanly characterized? Are we able to humanize technology for the need of the residents? Addressing my point of view, first of all, I have to confess that I belong to the “x” generation and therefore a gap divides me from updated technologies that are born almost every minute around the globe. Second, this is not a research paper or data analysis. Third, an additional set of questions will focus on the direction/s technology is pushing the interfaces with city residents. The paper argues that citizen-centered humanized approach for the future of smart cities is needed for shifting technology- centered to human and social considerations

scholarly journals Control-Oriented Inventory Production and Sales Activities in Chinese Manufacturing Firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Haihong He
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
The Other ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Perception Of Control ◽  
High Return ◽  
The Future

This study uses a sample of Chinese manufacturing firms to examine the association between current period inventory production costs and sales changes in adjacent past and future periods. The results find an overall significant association between inventory production and the past period sales changes, but no association between inventory production and the future period sales changes. Further, we find that in firms with high return on assets, inventory production is only associated with the past period sales changes, but not with the future period sales changes; in contrast, in firms with low return on assets, inventory production is only associated with the future period sales changes, but not with the past period sales changes. The results, on one hand confirm our perception of control oriented management accounting practices in China, on the other hand suggest that firm performance is associated with such management emphasis in China.

scholarly journals Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1191-1205 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Schaefli ◽  
B. Hingray ◽  
A. Musy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Modelling Uncertainties ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Potential Climate Change

Abstract. This paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961–1990) and for the future period (2070–2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance.

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