scholarly journals Distribution of maximum earthquake magnitudes in future time intervals: application to the seismicity of Japan (1923–2007)

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 567-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. F. Pisarenko ◽  
D. Sornette ◽  
M. V. Rodkin
Keyword(s):  
Future Time ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Maximum Earthquake

Maximum Earthquakes in Future Time Intervals

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-179
Author(s):  
V. F. Pisarenko ◽  
A. A. Lyubushin ◽  
M. V. Rodkin
Keyword(s):  
Future Time ◽  
Time Intervals

Bayesian modelling of train door reliability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Ferreira ◽  
Adelmo Bertoldey ◽  
Scott Holan
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Modelling ◽  
Repairable Systems ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Poisson Models ◽  
Bivariate Poisson Process ◽  
Underground System ◽  
Failure Monitoring ◽  
Natural Way

This article discusses the results of a study in Bayesian reliability analysis concerning train door failures in a European underground system over a period of nine years. It examines failure data from forty underground trains, which were delivered to an European transportation company between November 1989 and March 1991. All of the trains were put in service from 20 March 1990 to 20 July 1992. Failure monitoring ended on 31 December 1998. The goal of the study was to find models able to assess the failure history and to predict the number of failures in future time intervals in order to help the company determine the reliability level of the train doors before warranty expiration. The article describes the development and application of a novel bivariate Poisson process as a natural way to extend the usual Poisson models for analysing the occurrence of failures in repairable systems.

The Effect of Inspection Uncertainties in Predicting the Probability of Leak of Steam Generator Tubing Due to Pitting

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
S. V. Datta ◽  
D. Komljenovic
Keyword(s):  
Steam Generator ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Steam Generator Tubing ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
Biased Estimates ◽  
Incomplete Picture

Pitting corrosion is a serious form of degradation in steam generator (SG) tubing of some nuclear generating stations. The nature and extent of the pitting process is assessed through inspection programs, typically using eddy current probes. Although the data can be used in a probabilistic framework to predict the probability of a tube leak in future time intervals, the consideration of uncertainties associated with inspection tools is extremely important. The paper shows that the defect size data collected through inspections are significantly contaminated by probability of detection and measurement error such that the data present an incomplete picture of the defect population. The use of inspection data without accounting for inspection uncertainties in the analysis results in highly biased estimates of the leak probability. The paper presents a statistically correct likelihood method to account for inspection uncertainties and demonstrates its effectiveness through examples.

scholarly journals Temperatura e precipitação: futuros cenários do município de Taubaté, SP, Brasil

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1068
Author(s):  
Thiago Adriano dos Santos ◽  
Gilberto Fisch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Distribution ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall

This work quantified temperature and precipitation variations in the region of Taubate using historic precipitation data and temperature simulations (climatology from 1961 to 1990). Corrections were made based on the observational data, and simulations of future time intervals (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) using a climate-model simulation. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of 3.6°C in the average annual air temperature and an increase of 231 mm in annual accumulated rainfall (equivalent to approximately 17% of the climatological normal) for the interval 2071-2099. Moreover, in relation to seasonal distribution, there is a higher monthly average temperature increase in the spring (4.1°C) and lower in the summer (3.4°C) and a higher average daily increase in summer rainfall (1.1 mm) and smaller increase in spring (0.3 mm). There is also an increase of approximately 5 days in the daily number of days with greater than 1mm precipitation throughout the year. The analysis of the water balance showed deficits in the months of August and September and found a disparity between the input and output of water entering the territory through precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water consumption, suggesting the need to adapt to new social and environmental scenarios.

Rotational Characteristics of the Green Solar Corona: 1947-1991

1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 139-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Rybák ◽  
V. Rušin ◽  
M. Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Solar Corona ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The World ◽  
Coronal Emission Line ◽  
Homogeneous Data

AbstractFe XIV 530.3 nm coronal emission line observations have been used for the estimation of the green solar corona rotation. A homogeneous data set, created from measurements of the world-wide coronagraphic network, has been examined with a help of correlation analysis to reveal the averaged synodic rotation period as a function of latitude and time over the epoch from 1947 to 1991.The values of the synodic rotation period obtained for this epoch for the whole range of latitudes and a latitude band ±30° are 27.52±0.12 days and 26.95±0.21 days, resp. A differential rotation of green solar corona, with local period maxima around ±60° and minimum of the rotation period at the equator, was confirmed. No clear cyclic variation of the rotation has been found for examinated epoch but some monotonic trends for some time intervals are presented.A detailed investigation of the original data and their correlation functions has shown that an existence of sufficiently reliable tracers is not evident for the whole set of examinated data. This should be taken into account in future more precise estimations of the green corona rotation period.

Prolonged Fixation Studies For Spaceflight

1973 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 332-333
Author(s):  
Robert Corbett ◽  
Delbert E. Philpott ◽  
Sam Black
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Prolonged Storage ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Early Signs ◽  
Large Numbers

Observation of subtle or early signs of change in spaceflight induced alterations on living systems require precise methods of sampling. In-flight analysis would be preferable but constraints of time, equipment, personnel and cost dictate the necessity for prolonged storage before retrieval. Because of this, various tissues have been stored in fixatives and combinations of fixatives and observed at various time intervals. High pressure and the effect of buffer alone have also been tried.Of the various tissues embedded, muscle, cartilage and liver, liver has been the most extensively studied because it contains large numbers of organelles common to all tissues (Fig. 1).

Ultrastructure of Lymphatic Capillaries in the Transport of Colloidal Particles

1967 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 186-187
Author(s):  
L. V. Leak ◽  
J. F. Burke
Keyword(s):  
Connective Tissue ◽  
Colloidal Particles ◽  
Ultrastructural Level ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Thorium Dioxide ◽  
Lymphatic Capillary ◽  
Tissue Area ◽  
Rapid Removal ◽  
Tissue Fluids

The vital role played by the lymphatic capillaries in the transfer of tissue fluids and particulate materials from the connective tissue area can be demonstrated by the rapid removal of injected vital dyes into the tissue areas. In order to ascertain the mechanisms involved in the transfer of substances from the connective tissue area at the ultrastructural level, we have injected colloidal particles of varying sizes which range from 80 A up to 900-mμ. These colloidal particles (colloidal ferritin 80-100A, thorium dioxide 100-200 A, biological carbon 200-300 and latex spheres 900-mμ) are injected directly into the interstitial spaces of the connective tissue with glass micro-needles mounted in a modified Chambers micromanipulator. The progress of the particles from the interstitial space into the lymphatic capillary lumen is followed by observing tissues from animals (skin of the guinea pig ear) that were injected at various time intervals ranging from 5 minutes up to 6 months.

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