scholarly journals MONTE-CARLO APPROACH FOR MEASURING ADJUSTING COST RISKS VALUES OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PROJECT’S WHOLE LIFE CYCLE FROM CLIENTS’ PERSPECTIVE IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-89
Author(s):  
Ahmed Sadek
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Approach ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Purpose – Although projects’ experts always take into consideration the related cost-risks. They are experiencing the challenge of not being able to finish the project within the estimated budget. Latest cost-risks studies concentrated on modelling and estimating risks at the preconstruction stage. This article aims to approach Monte-Carlo simulation using stochastic mathematical modelling to measure cost-risks error (i.e., adjusting cost-risks). Methodology – The approach of this research is solely quantitative. It is using statistical modelling and simulations to ensure the accuracy and precision of the developed Monte-Carlo model. However, this study is utilizing Microsoft Office Excel Software Mersenne twister algorithm to generate random numbers to ensure most accurate Monte-Carlo approach. The mathematical equations system is built into Excel. Findings – The research outputs are considered significant in project management body of knowledge. This is because of the resulted evidence that is proving the applicability to measure cost risks error using Monte-Carlo simulation. This study presented cost risks and differentiated between contractors’ and clients’ views.    Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy – The originality of this article comes from providing the first Monte-Carlo approach for measuring projects’ cost-risks error from client’s perspective. The theoretical-implications, practical-implications, and limitations are presented in the conclusion for future research.

scholarly journals COST RISK’S RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PROJECT’S WHOLE LIFE CYCLE IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-114
Author(s):  
Ahmed Sadek
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Project Management ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Purpose – Project management cost and risk modelling is experiencing the challenge of identifying cost risks values to maintain accurate modelling, estimating, and assessment. Latest research focused on cost and risk modelling and estimation. The significance of cost risks numerical values come from its ability to be used in many different analysis and approaches. This article aims to identify residential building projects’ whole life cycle cost risks numerical values in UAE at the preconstruction stage and ensure its reliability and validity. Methodology – The approach of this research is pure quantitative. The methodology of this research is to collect data though conducting face-to-face interviews quantitatively (i.e., cost risks values). The survey is using PMBOK risk matrix (i.e., probability vs. impact). Finally, data correlation and regression modelling ware done to ensure the reliability and validity of each cost risk value. Findings – This paper was able to deliver reliable and valid residential project’s whole life cycle cost risks values (i.e., 117 cost risks) for direct use in future research or practical professional cost analysis. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy – This article contribution to the project management body of knowledge is to collect all relevant cost risks (i.e., 117 cost risks) and obtain their values from UAE field experts for the first time. The provided values are for residential project in UAE only. The perspective of how to look to cost risks values in this article (i.e., contractors’ and clients’ views) should be considered at the time of using the data. The consultancy services organizations will have different cost risks because they do not deal with delivering the final product, but they provide supporting services (i.e., design and supervision) to facilitate delivering the project.

scholarly journals SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR WHOLE LIFE CYCLE COST MODELLING OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PROJECTS IN UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-71
Author(s):  
Ahmed Sadek
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Information Value ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Cost Modelling ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Purpose – Project management field is experiencing many challenges to maintain its performance within planned budget. Latest research focused on cost modelling and estimation. The significance of cost modelling comes from the forecasted information value. It is needed in the United Arab Emirates to satisfy the future vision and strategies. Methodology – This article aims to model project's whole life cycle costs of residential buildings in UAE at the preconstruction stage, choosing VENSIM system dynamics approach. The objective is to simulate dynamically cost over time for all outputs. The approach of this research is pure quantitative. It requires mapping diagrams and mathematical computation systems. DEMO simulation and real data verification modelling are used to ensure the outputs’ validity. The mean absolute deviation and mean square error are used for measuring the estimation accuracy. Findings – This research proved that VENSIM system dynamics approach can model and estimate residential building project’s cost and cash flow dynamically through time, with high accuracy, in the United Arab Emirates. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy – This research provides the first cost estimation modelling for residential projects’ whole life cycle using VENSIM system dynamics approach. It is opening new research opportunities in cost modelling and estimating fields. The theoretical-implications, practical-implications, and limitations are presented in the conclusion for future research. 

Modeling Energy Deposition in Very Thin Layered Media by Monte Carlo Simulation

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reginald Eze ◽  
Anisur Rahman ◽  
Sunil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Thin Layer ◽  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Path Length ◽  
Energy Deposition ◽  
Radiation Transport ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Layered Media ◽  
Thin Layers

A Monte Carlo model with special features for modeling of radiation transport through very thin layers has been presented. Over the decades traditional Monte Carlo model has been used to model highly scattering thin layers in skin and may inaccurately capture the effect of thin layers since their interfaces are not perfectly planar and thicknesses non-uniform. If the Monte Carlo model is implemented without special features then the results of the simulation would show no effect of the outer thin layer since the path length of most photons would be significantly larger than the layer thickness and the resulting predicted photon travel would simply not notice the presence of the layer. Examples of multi-layered media are considered where the effect of a very thin absorbing layers is systematically examined using both the traditional Monte Carlo and that with new features incorporated. The results have profound implications in the diagnostic and therapeutic applications of laser in biomedicine and surgery.

Analysis on Motion Precision Reliability of Hydraulic Support

2011 ◽  
Vol 48-49 ◽  
pp. 224-227
Author(s):  
Dong Chen Qin ◽  
Qiang Zhu ◽  
Hong Xia Wu ◽  
Zhe Feng Guo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Theoretical Calculation ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Effective Length ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Hydraulic Support ◽  
Continuous Contact ◽  
Continuous Contact Model

In order to research the motion precision reliability of hydraulic support when the influence of the bar length error and gap error is considered, the motion trace mathematical model for the top beam of hydraulic support is established, with the calculation method of motion precision reliability and the effective length of bar based on continuous contact model. Taking some type of hydraulic support as an example, its motion precision reliability is calculated and analyzed. The Monte Carlo simulation is also used to verify the model, and the T-R curve of the gap error and the reliability is plotted. The results from simulation accord with those from the theoretical calculation, which verifies the model established and can provide some valuable reference for the related future research.

scholarly journals Ab initiokinetic Monte Carlo simulation of seeded emulsion polymerizations of styrene

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (16) ◽  
pp. 10796-10805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Drache ◽  
Katrin Brandl ◽  
Rebecca Reinhardt ◽  
Sabine Beuermann
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Kinetic Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Radical Transfer ◽  
Emulsion Polymerizations

A kinetic Monte Carlo model for emulsion polymerizations based on elemental reactions and radical transfer into particles is introduced.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation of Pathogen Behavior during the Sprout Production Process

2005 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 746-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Montville ◽  
Donald Schaffner
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Detection Limit ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Pathogen Detection ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Seed Disinfection ◽  
Reduction Strategies

ABSTRACT Food-borne disease outbreaks linked to the consumption of raw sprouts have become a concern over the past decade. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the sprout production process was created to determine the most-effective points for pathogen control. Published literature was reviewed, and relevant data were compiled. Appropriate statistical distributions were determined and used to create the Monte Carlo model with Analytica software. Factors modeled included initial pathogen concentration and prevalence, seed disinfection effectiveness, and sampling of seeds prior to sprouting, sampling of irrigation water, or sampling of the finished product. Pathogen concentration and uniformity of seed contamination had a large effect on the fraction of contaminated batches predicted by the simulation. The model predicted that sprout sampling and irrigation water sampling at the end of the sprouting process would be more effective in pathogen detection than seed sampling prior to production. Day of sampling and type of sample (sprout or water) taken had a minimal effect on rate of detection. Seed disinfection reduced the proportion of contaminated batches, but in some cases it also reduced the ability to detect the pathogen when it was present, because cell numbers were reduced below the detection limit. Both the amount sampled and the pathogen detection limit were shown to be important variables in determining sampling effectiveness. This simulation can also be used to guide further research and compare the levels of effectiveness of different risk reduction strategies.

scholarly journals Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of random deposition and scaling behavior with respect to the germination length

2020 ◽  
Vol 09 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050022
Author(s):  
Abdenour Saoudi ◽  
Linda Aissani ◽  
Grégoire Sorba ◽  
Francisco Chinesta
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Kinetic Monte Carlo ◽  
System Size ◽  
Scaling Behavior ◽  
Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo Approach

This work aims at analyzing the scaling behavior and develop correlations during surface growing for different germination lengths. The surface growing by random deposition is simulated using a kinetic Monte Carlo approach, by considering different germination lengths. Different surface descriptors are extracted, among them the roughness and the correlation. The former allows extracting the scaling behavior, while the latter proves the existence of correlations independent of the system size but dependent on the germination length. Moreover, as in the case of random deposition with a null germination length, the growing roughness never saturates.

A Mathematical Model for Tire/Wheel Assembly Balance

1993 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 220-231
Author(s):  
E. J. Ni
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Equation Of Motion ◽  
Rigid Body Dynamics ◽  
Production Distribution ◽  
Body Dynamics

Abstract A mathematical model is developed to calculate the weight required on a tire/wheel assembly to balance wheel nonuniformity effects such as the lateral runout. A finite element model of a tire mounted on a rigid wheel is used to simulate the free spinning about a skewed axis. The result showed that Euler's equation of motion in rigid body dynamics can be used to calculate the imbalance caused by wheel lateral runout. This equation is then used in a Monte Carlo model to simulate a production distribution. The model can be used to define tire and wheel specification limits, and to predict the number of assemblies that will have unacceptable imbalances. The verification of the model and results of the Monte Carlo simulation are presented.

scholarly journals A Flexible Bridge Rating Method Based on Analytical Evidential Reasoning and Monte Carlo Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Abu Dabous ◽  
Ghadeer Al-Khayyat
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Paired Comparison ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Condition Assessment ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Assessment Practices ◽  
Condition Rating ◽  
Rating Method

Several bridge inspection standards and condition assessment practices have been developed around the globe. Some practices employ four linguistic expressions to rate bridge elements while other practices use five or six, or adopt numerical ratings such as 1 to 9. This research introduces a condition rating method that can operate under different condition assessment practices and account for uncertainties in condition assessment by means of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) theory. The method offers flexibility in terms of using default elements and their weights or selecting alternative set of elements and condition rating schemes. The implemented ER approach accounts for uncertainties in condition rating by treating the condition assessments as probabilistic grades rather than numerical values. The ER approach requires the assignment of initial basic beliefs or probabilities, and typically these initial beliefs are assigned by an expert. Alternatively, this research integrates the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique with the ER theory to quantitatively estimate the basic probabilities and to produce robust overall bridge condition ratings. The proposed method is novel to the literature and has the following features: (1) flexible and can be used with any number of bridge elements and any standard of condition grades; (2) intuitive and simple paired comparison technique is implemented to evaluate weights of the bridge elements; (3) the MCS technique is integrated with the ER approach to quantify uncertainties associated with the stochastic nature of the bridge deterioration process; (4) the method can function with limited data and can incorporate new evidence to update the condition rating; (5) the final rating consists of multiple condition grades and is produced as a distributed probabilistic assessment reflecting the condition of the bridge elements collectively. The proposed method is illustrated with a real case study, and potential future research work is identified.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Diffusion with Uniform Sinks and Sources for Vacancies

2005 ◽  
Vol 237-240 ◽  
pp. 1168-1173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Ženíšek ◽  
Jiří Svoboda ◽  
Franz Dieter Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Kirkendall Effect ◽  
The Self ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Self Consistent

A new concept of generation and annihilation of vacancies at uniform sinks and sources for vacancies is incorporated into the standard Monte Carlo model for vacancy mediated diffusion. This model enables to treat the vacancy wind as well as the deformation of the specimen and the shift of the Kirkendall plane. The Monte Carlo model is used for the testing of the recent phenomenological theories of diffusion by Darken, Manning and Moleko. The agreement with the self-consistent Moleko theory is excellent. On the other hand the agreement with the classical Darken theory used very often for the explanation of the Kirkendall effect is rather poor.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document