scholarly journals OBSERVATIONS-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ANALYTICS ON LOCAL CLIMATE DYNAMICS: CHANGE-POINTS

2017 ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Bifurcation Phenomena ◽  
Model Dynamics ◽  
Annual Temperature Variation ◽  
Nonlinear Nature ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper concerns the problem on the computational decision making on evolution of local climate dynamics taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of such systems and deficiency of reliable data on climate dynamics. With this purpose we consider annual temperature variation in the context of the bifurcation phenomena under the hysteresis regulation with double synchronization. The corresponding conceptual model (HDS-model) provides the homogeniety of the analysed states as well as the ability to derive some constituent of regional (external) impacts on a local climate system. In accordance with the peculiarities of HDS-model dynamics, we formalize three mechanisms of local temperature changes and introduce the corresponding indicators of change-points. It allows to substitute, at least partly, expert analytics concerning identification of qualitative changes in local climate dynamics. Examples of applications of the indicators are presented on the basis of processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature made over last century. We believe that the results could be applied in order to increase the confidence of estimations about local climate changes.

scholarly journals OBSERVATIONS-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ANALYTICS ON LOCAL CLIMATE DYNAMICS. PART 2: SEASONALITY

2017 ◽  
pp. 152-159
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Bifurcation Phenomena ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
Traditional Processing ◽  
Analytical Resolution ◽  
Nonlinear Nature

The paper continues the discussion concerning the computational decision making on evolution of local climate dynamics taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of such systems and deficiency of reliable data on its dynamics. Here we focus on seasonality in the context of bifurcation phenomena described by the model of the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization (so-called HDS-model). From this conception, the method of structuring and analysis of meteorological data (method of relative scales) is proposed, where new useful information on local seasonal evolution becomes available. First of all, it concerns increase in analytical resolution (daily description in a climate scale). The key procedures of this method provide building the specialized seasonal structures in relative time scales. Advantages are illustrated in comparison with the traditional processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature over last century. We believe that the results could be interesting in order to increase the confidence of estimations on coming climate changes.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part III: Where is the Joint Between Norms and Hazards from a Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint?

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (07) ◽  
pp. 1650122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper continues the application of the bifurcation analysis in the research on local climate dynamics based on processing the historically observed data on the daily average land surface air temperature. Since the analyzed data are from instrumental measurements, we are doing the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, we focus on the discussion where is the joint between the normal dynamics of local climate systems (norms) and situations with the potential to create damages (hazards)? We illustrate that, perhaps, the criteria for hazards (or violent and unfavorable weather factors) relate mainly to empirical considerations from human opinion, but not to the natural qualitative changes of climate dynamics. To build the bifurcation diagrams, we base on the unconventional conceptual model (HDS-model) which originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization. The HDS-model is characterized by a variable structure with the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. Then the intermittency between three periodical processes is considered as the typical behavior of local climate systems instead of both chaos and quasi-periodicity in order to excuse the variety of local climate dynamics. From the known specific regularities of the HDS-model dynamics, we try to find a way to decompose the local behaviors into homogeneous units within the time sections with homogeneous dynamics. Here, we present the first results of such decomposition, where the quasi-homogeneous sections (QHS) are determined on the basis of the modified bifurcation diagrams, and the units are reconstructed within the limits connected with the problem of shape defects. Nevertheless, the proposed analysis of the local climate dynamics (QHS-analysis) allows to exhibit how the comparatively modest temperature differences between the mentioned units in an annual scale can step-by-step expand into the great temperature differences of the daily variability at a centennial scale. Then the norms and the hazards relate to the fundamentally different viewpoints, where the time sections of months and, especially, seasons distort the causal effects of natural dynamical processes. The specific circumstances to realize the qualitative changes of the local climate dynamics are summarized by the notion of a likely periodicity. That, in particular, allows to explain why [Formula: see text]-year averaging remains the most common rule so far, but the decadal averaging begins to substitute that rule. We believe that the QHS-analysis can be considered as the joint between the norms and the hazards from a bifurcation analysis viewpoint, where the causal effects of the local climate dynamics are projected into the customary timescale only at the last step. We believe that the results could be interesting to develop the fields connected with climatic change and risk assessment.

scholarly journals OBSERVATIONS-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ANALYTICS ON LOCAL CLIMATE DYNAMICS. PART 3: FORECASTING

2017 ◽  
pp. 210-218
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
Nonlinear Nature

Computational decision making is discussed in application to seasonal temperature forecasts taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of local climate systems and deficiency of data on reliable observations. We focus on temperature extremes in terms of daily means and first involve the alternative conceptual model of local climate dynamics (the model of hysteresis regulation with double synchronization, so-called HDS-model) into such analytics. Recent years the HDS-model is describing successfully abnormal interannual temperature variability, on the basis of which it becomes potentially possible to extend forecasts of local daily means up to more than 1 year in future. In this connection the novel method of bifurcation traps is proposed, realized and tested. Results of processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature illustrate peculiarities of this method in comparison with the traditional viewpoint on the forecasts. We believe that the discussion could be interesting in science and practice in order to increase the confidence of estimations on coming climate changes.

scholarly journals Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part V: Stability Margin Towards Emergency

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (05) ◽  
pp. 1930013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Stability Margin ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Hysteresis ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Stability

The paper presents a discussion on an opinion about the stability margin towards an emergency in local climate dynamics from the bifurcation analysis viewpoint. With this purpose we propose to attract the practice-oriented bifurcation analysis, where the conflict-of-units between notions used to understand natural evolution processes and notions used to describe desirable artificial regimes is resolved by integrating analytics on the basis of modified bifurcation diagrams. The discussion focuses on the phenomenon of interannual temperature variability, where local annual maximums and minimums are analyzed with daily details in both time and temperature coordinates. This phenomenon is considered via the probable, periodical and regulator conceptions. Advantages of the regulator conception are verified by results of processing the data of temperature meteorological observations on daily means over the last 135 years. This conception is based on the HDS-hypothesis, in accordance to which local climate dynamics is determined by the natural competition between the amplitude quantization (restricted by the temperature Hysteresis) and time quantization (caused by the Double Synchronization). Thus an alternation between three elementary processes with the same period (year) and different patterns of annual warming–cooling cycles is supposed as a typical behavior for local climate systems, and the idea on high-dynamic local climate ensembles is developed instead of the conventional opinion on quasi-static local climate norms. Mechanisms of temperature changes due to abrupt shifts (so-called change-points) of the HDS-regulator parameters are distinguished from mechanisms of temperature changes due to bifurcations. The notion of a stability margin is used as a distance to an emergency and is visualized in the parametrical space. So, in spite of the mechanisms of temperature changes with/without bifurcations are different, their conflict-free sewing becomes conceptually possible in the context of the stability margin towards emergencies determined relatively bifurcation boundaries in the parametrical space. Since the discussed dynamics is not supposed to exist in terms of the traditional estimations concerning the observed local climate changes, then we believe that the paper would be interesting for scientists in the field of bifurcation analysis as well as for scientists and specialists, activity areas of which relate to the contemporary challenges connected with climate changes.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 1630033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Time Pattern ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part II: Is it Possible to Research Both Local Peculiarities and Regional Tendencies from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint?

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Multidimensional Data ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature Oscillations

This paper is devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis in the research of local climate dynamics. In particular, we consider the dynamics of the land surface air temperature in the centennial timescale. The experimental bifurcation analysis supposes the choice of a conceptual model to demonstrate how the observable kinds of dynamical processes can be realized on the whole. We worked on the conceptual model with a variable structure (HDS-model), where the dynamics is determined by the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The model originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization (HDS-regulator) proposed in 1970’s to achieve the extreme combination of both efficiency and reliability of energy conversion processes. The HDS-model allows to consider the interplay between several periodical processes instead of chaos and quasi-periodicity in order to excuse the variety of the behaviors observed in the local climate dynamics. In particular, the intermittency seems to be the typical behavior of a local climate system from such viewpoint. Here we continue to verify the HDS-model and continue to develop the idea of the modified bifurcation diagrams to reveal the regularities within the intermittency. In particular, we first build the spatial diagram to summarize the results of the bifurcation analysis of the local climate dynamics in the centennial timescale. We assume that each effect of the regional temperature oscillations (RTO-effect) appears as a certain combination of several effects of the local temperature oscillations (LTO-effects), where each LTO-effect can be revealed by the bifurcation analysis. The possibility to build the modified bifurcation diagrams is provided by the SUC-logic aimed for the synthesis of experimental bifurcation analysis, symbolical analysis, and multidimensional data visualization under the assumption that an annual warming–cooling cycle is the unit to analyze. Since only the historical data of the temperature observations are used, then the results approach as close as possible to the real events. We believe that our research seems to be interesting to estimate the theoretically possible latent abilities and evolution of the local climate dynamics.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia: Is it Possible to Build Bifurcation Diagrams Based on Extra-Short Local Observations?

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (06) ◽  
pp. 1550084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Evolution ◽  
Nonlinear Phenomena ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Local Climate

Since the bifurcation analysis remains the basic tool to inquire into nonlinear system dynamics, then, theoretically, the bifurcation analysis should be widely used to estimate the evolution of the climate dynamics at a certain geographic point over the last centenary. But it does not occur in practice. A viewpoint how to estimate such evolution is proposed and discussed in the paper. The viewpoint can be briefly formulated as the following: the extra-short timescale, plus the novel conceptual model, plus the modified bifurcation diagrams. So, first, only the data of instrumental measurements (hereafter observations) are used to build the bifurcation diagram, correspondingly, the timescale is restricted by the maximal duration of the reliable observations. In particular, 130-years time series of the land surface air temperature in Russia are analyzed in the paper. Second, the conceptual model (HDS-model) to describe the annual warming–cooling cycle dynamics similar to the dynamics of the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization (HDS-regulator) is introduced. Correspondingly, the local climate dynamics is considered as the dynamics of the system with a variable structure. The main advantage of HDS-model is the possibility to describe quite simply the rich variety of the observable temperature evolution based on the known nonlinear phenomena by the combinations of C-bifurcations (or, in other words, border-collision bifurcations) between three conjugate periodical processes with the same period but different orders of structural changes. Then HDS-hypothesis on the climate dynamics is proposed, where the local temperature evolution is considered under the competition between both amplitude and time quantizations within the Sun–Earth–Moon system. Processing the observations follows the SUC-logic conceptions on the experimental bifurcation analysis that allows to untangle the intricate nonlinear nonstationary behavior of a local climate system by using both special sections (S) and units (U) in a certain consequence (C). As a result, the modified bifurcation diagrams to show the temperature evolution in local climate systems are built under the variation of several bifurcation parameters. The diagrams exhibit intermittency phenomena of high activity in the European part of Russia at least. Generally speaking, HDS-hypothesis gives the good approximation to answer the question whether the observable changes in the local climate dynamics are qualitative and, if yes, in what meaning?

scholarly journals Assessing Change-Points in Surface Air Temperature Over Alaska

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena A. Khapalova ◽  
Venkata K. Jandhyala ◽  
Stergios B. Fotopoulos ◽  
James E. Overland
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Change Points

Modeling the Effects of Lakes in the Tibetan Plateau on Diurnal Variations of Regional Climate and Their Seasonality

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2523-2536
Author(s):  
Lingjing Zhu ◽  
Jiming Jin ◽  
Yimin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Diurnal Variations ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Lake Model ◽  
Physically Based

AbstractIn this study, we investigated the effects of lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on diurnal variations of local climate and their seasonal changes by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with a one-dimensional physically based lake model. We conducted WRF simulations for the TP over 2000–10, and the model showed excellent performance in simulating near-surface air temperature, precipitation, lake surface temperature, and lake-region precipitation when compared to observations. We carried out additional WRF simulations where all the TP lakes were replaced with the nearest land-use types. The differences between these two sets of simulations were analyzed to quantify the effects of the TP lakes on the local climate. Our results indicate that the strongest lake-induced cooling occurred during the spring daytime, while the most significant warming occurred during the fall nighttime. The cooling and warming effects of the lakes further inhibited precipitation during summer afternoons and evenings and motivated it during fall early mornings, respectively. This study lays a solid foundation for further exploration of the role of TP lakes in climate systems at different time scales.

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