scholarly journals FRACTAL APPROACH TO ANALYSE THE INSTRUMENTAL TIME SERIES OF TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS

2014 ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Fractal Model ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Cooling Cycle ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Fractal Approach ◽  
Temperature Dynamics ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
The Individual

The fractal approach allows to extend the knowledge about the nonlinear dynamics evolution caused by the growth of capacity and adequacy of information about regularities, uncertainties and abnormalities. The paper applies the fractal approach to analyze the instrumental time series observing the air temperature of the land surface during 1902-2012 years. An annual warming-cooling cycle is considered as a unit, so the peculiarities of the viewpoint on the temperature dynamics are connected with the analysis of the time series profiles. The corresponding fractal model – described the annual warming-cooling cycle dynamics - is adapted to the considered subject. Then it becomes possible to study comparatively the averaged, extremely and amplitude-frequency characteristics of the annual warming-cooling cycles. The observations – completed in the forty meteorological stations – are used in the six quasi-homogeneous climate regions. The individual and comparative study of the local climate systems exhibits both over-regional dominant tendencies and local uncertainties that enable to learn the local climate dynamics in more details.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part III: Where is the Joint Between Norms and Hazards from a Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint?

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (07) ◽  
pp. 1650122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper continues the application of the bifurcation analysis in the research on local climate dynamics based on processing the historically observed data on the daily average land surface air temperature. Since the analyzed data are from instrumental measurements, we are doing the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, we focus on the discussion where is the joint between the normal dynamics of local climate systems (norms) and situations with the potential to create damages (hazards)? We illustrate that, perhaps, the criteria for hazards (or violent and unfavorable weather factors) relate mainly to empirical considerations from human opinion, but not to the natural qualitative changes of climate dynamics. To build the bifurcation diagrams, we base on the unconventional conceptual model (HDS-model) which originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization. The HDS-model is characterized by a variable structure with the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. Then the intermittency between three periodical processes is considered as the typical behavior of local climate systems instead of both chaos and quasi-periodicity in order to excuse the variety of local climate dynamics. From the known specific regularities of the HDS-model dynamics, we try to find a way to decompose the local behaviors into homogeneous units within the time sections with homogeneous dynamics. Here, we present the first results of such decomposition, where the quasi-homogeneous sections (QHS) are determined on the basis of the modified bifurcation diagrams, and the units are reconstructed within the limits connected with the problem of shape defects. Nevertheless, the proposed analysis of the local climate dynamics (QHS-analysis) allows to exhibit how the comparatively modest temperature differences between the mentioned units in an annual scale can step-by-step expand into the great temperature differences of the daily variability at a centennial scale. Then the norms and the hazards relate to the fundamentally different viewpoints, where the time sections of months and, especially, seasons distort the causal effects of natural dynamical processes. The specific circumstances to realize the qualitative changes of the local climate dynamics are summarized by the notion of a likely periodicity. That, in particular, allows to explain why [Formula: see text]-year averaging remains the most common rule so far, but the decadal averaging begins to substitute that rule. We believe that the QHS-analysis can be considered as the joint between the norms and the hazards from a bifurcation analysis viewpoint, where the causal effects of the local climate dynamics are projected into the customary timescale only at the last step. We believe that the results could be interesting to develop the fields connected with climatic change and risk assessment.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 1630033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Time Pattern ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part II: Is it Possible to Research Both Local Peculiarities and Regional Tendencies from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint?

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Multidimensional Data ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature Oscillations

This paper is devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis in the research of local climate dynamics. In particular, we consider the dynamics of the land surface air temperature in the centennial timescale. The experimental bifurcation analysis supposes the choice of a conceptual model to demonstrate how the observable kinds of dynamical processes can be realized on the whole. We worked on the conceptual model with a variable structure (HDS-model), where the dynamics is determined by the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The model originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization (HDS-regulator) proposed in 1970’s to achieve the extreme combination of both efficiency and reliability of energy conversion processes. The HDS-model allows to consider the interplay between several periodical processes instead of chaos and quasi-periodicity in order to excuse the variety of the behaviors observed in the local climate dynamics. In particular, the intermittency seems to be the typical behavior of a local climate system from such viewpoint. Here we continue to verify the HDS-model and continue to develop the idea of the modified bifurcation diagrams to reveal the regularities within the intermittency. In particular, we first build the spatial diagram to summarize the results of the bifurcation analysis of the local climate dynamics in the centennial timescale. We assume that each effect of the regional temperature oscillations (RTO-effect) appears as a certain combination of several effects of the local temperature oscillations (LTO-effects), where each LTO-effect can be revealed by the bifurcation analysis. The possibility to build the modified bifurcation diagrams is provided by the SUC-logic aimed for the synthesis of experimental bifurcation analysis, symbolical analysis, and multidimensional data visualization under the assumption that an annual warming–cooling cycle is the unit to analyze. Since only the historical data of the temperature observations are used, then the results approach as close as possible to the real events. We believe that our research seems to be interesting to estimate the theoretically possible latent abilities and evolution of the local climate dynamics.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia: Is it Possible to Build Bifurcation Diagrams Based on Extra-Short Local Observations?

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (06) ◽  
pp. 1550084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Evolution ◽  
Nonlinear Phenomena ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Local Climate

Since the bifurcation analysis remains the basic tool to inquire into nonlinear system dynamics, then, theoretically, the bifurcation analysis should be widely used to estimate the evolution of the climate dynamics at a certain geographic point over the last centenary. But it does not occur in practice. A viewpoint how to estimate such evolution is proposed and discussed in the paper. The viewpoint can be briefly formulated as the following: the extra-short timescale, plus the novel conceptual model, plus the modified bifurcation diagrams. So, first, only the data of instrumental measurements (hereafter observations) are used to build the bifurcation diagram, correspondingly, the timescale is restricted by the maximal duration of the reliable observations. In particular, 130-years time series of the land surface air temperature in Russia are analyzed in the paper. Second, the conceptual model (HDS-model) to describe the annual warming–cooling cycle dynamics similar to the dynamics of the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization (HDS-regulator) is introduced. Correspondingly, the local climate dynamics is considered as the dynamics of the system with a variable structure. The main advantage of HDS-model is the possibility to describe quite simply the rich variety of the observable temperature evolution based on the known nonlinear phenomena by the combinations of C-bifurcations (or, in other words, border-collision bifurcations) between three conjugate periodical processes with the same period but different orders of structural changes. Then HDS-hypothesis on the climate dynamics is proposed, where the local temperature evolution is considered under the competition between both amplitude and time quantizations within the Sun–Earth–Moon system. Processing the observations follows the SUC-logic conceptions on the experimental bifurcation analysis that allows to untangle the intricate nonlinear nonstationary behavior of a local climate system by using both special sections (S) and units (U) in a certain consequence (C). As a result, the modified bifurcation diagrams to show the temperature evolution in local climate systems are built under the variation of several bifurcation parameters. The diagrams exhibit intermittency phenomena of high activity in the European part of Russia at least. Generally speaking, HDS-hypothesis gives the good approximation to answer the question whether the observable changes in the local climate dynamics are qualitative and, if yes, in what meaning?

scholarly journals OBSERVATIONS-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ANALYTICS ON LOCAL CLIMATE DYNAMICS. PART 3: FORECASTING

2017 ◽  
pp. 210-218
Author(s):  
Yury Kolokolov ◽  
Anna Monovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
Nonlinear Nature

Computational decision making is discussed in application to seasonal temperature forecasts taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of local climate systems and deficiency of data on reliable observations. We focus on temperature extremes in terms of daily means and first involve the alternative conceptual model of local climate dynamics (the model of hysteresis regulation with double synchronization, so-called HDS-model) into such analytics. Recent years the HDS-model is describing successfully abnormal interannual temperature variability, on the basis of which it becomes potentially possible to extend forecasts of local daily means up to more than 1 year in future. In this connection the novel method of bifurcation traps is proposed, realized and tested. Results of processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature illustrate peculiarities of this method in comparison with the traditional viewpoint on the forecasts. We believe that the discussion could be interesting in science and practice in order to increase the confidence of estimations on coming climate changes.

scholarly journals Spectral Pitch Similarity is a Predictor of Perceived Change in Sound- as Well as Note-Based Music

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 205920431984735
Author(s):  
Roger T. Dean ◽  
Andrew J. Milne ◽  
Freya Bailes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Piano Music ◽  
Individual Response ◽  
Discrete Events ◽  
Acoustic Intensity ◽  
Spectral Parameters ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Perceived Change ◽  
Predictive Role ◽  
The Individual

Spectral pitch similarity (SPS) is a measure of the similarity between spectra of any pair of sounds. It has proved powerful in predicting perceived stability and fit of notes and chords in various tonal and microtonal instrumental contexts, that is, with discrete tones whose spectra are harmonic or close to harmonic. Here we assess the possible contribution of SPS to listeners’ continuous perceptions of change in music with fewer discrete events and with noisy or profoundly inharmonic sounds, such as electroacoustic music. Previous studies have shown that time series of perception of change in a range of music can be reasonably represented by time series models, whose predictors comprise autoregression together with series representing acoustic intensity and, usually, the timbral parameter spectral flatness. Here, we study possible roles for SPS in such models of continuous perceptions of change in a range of both instrumental (note-based) and sound-based music (generally containing more noise and fewer discrete events). In the first analysis, perceived change in three pieces of electroacoustic and one of piano music is modeled, to assess the possible contribution of (de-noised) SPS in cooperation with acoustic intensity and spectral flatness series. In the second analysis, a broad range of nine pieces is studied in relation to the wider range of distinctive spectral predictors useful in previous perceptual work, together with intensity and SPS. The second analysis uses cross-sectional (mixed-effects) time series analysis to take advantage of all the individual response series in the dataset, and to assess the possible generality of a predictive role for SPS. SPS proves to be a useful feature, making a predictive contribution distinct from other spectral parameters. Because SPS is a psychoacoustic “bottom up” feature, it may have wide applicability across both the familiar and the unfamiliar in the music to which we are exposed.

scholarly journals Dynamic Changes of Local Climate Zones in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area and Their Spatio-Temporal Impacts on the Surface Urban Heat Island Effect between 2005 and 2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6374
Author(s):  
Yang Lu ◽  
Jiansi Yang ◽  
Song Ma
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Heat Radiation ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Bay Area ◽  
Local Climate Zones ◽  
Urban Heat

Local climate zones (LCZs) emphasize the influence of representative geometric properties and surface cover characteristics on the local climate. In this paper, we propose a multi-temporal LCZ mapping method, which was used to obtain LCZ maps for 2005 and 2015 in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), and we analyze the effects of LCZ changes in the GBA on land surface temperature (LST) changes. The results reveal that: (1) The accuracy of the LCZ mapping of the GBA for 2005 and 2015 is 85.03% and 85.28%, respectively. (2) The built type category showing the largest increase in area from 2005 to 2015 is LCZ8 (large low-rise), with a 1.01% increase. The changes of the LCZs also vary among the cities due to the different factors, such as the economic development level and local policies. (3) The area showing a warming trend is larger than the area showing a cooling trend in all the cities in the GBA study area. The main reasons for the warming are the increase of built types, the enhancement of human activities, and the heat radiation from surrounding high-temperature areas. (4) The spatial morphology changes of the built type categories are positively correlated with the LST changes, and the morphological changes of the LCZ4 (open high-rise) and LCZ5 (open midrise) built types exert the most significant influence. These findings will provide important insights for urban heat mitigation via rational landscape design in urban planning management.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document