scholarly journals EFFECT OF EXTERNAL DEBT LIABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-42
Author(s):  
Joshua Matanda ◽  
Samuel Mbalu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Independent Variables

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effect of external debt liability on economic growth in Kenya. Materials and Methods: The descriptive research design was adopted. The target population was three institutions: The National Treasury, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. The study used time series data. The designated sample for this study covered a period of 43 years (1977–2019). Secondary data was used in this study. The data collected was on GDP of Kenya between 1977 and 2019, External public debt in terms of US dollars from 1977 to 2019, External private debt from 1977 and 2019 and external debt service payments from 1977 to 2019, all in US dollars. A data collection sheet was used to collect the data on the four variables. World Bank and World Development Indicator economic Meta data and published data by Central Bank of Kenya and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics were the source of data for this study. The study used Eviews version 10 for analyzing and presenting study findings. The study employed multivariate time series and panel data regression analysis. The model employed GDP as a measure of economic growth and external public debt, external private debt, and external debt service payment as its main independent variables. Results:  The study found out that only the external private debt and the debt service payment showed bilateral causal relationship. External public debt and external private debt had a positive and significant effect on the GDP, indicating that external debt promotes economic growth in Kenya. The external debt service payment showed a negative and a significant effect on the GDP as well. The model explained 97% variability of the GDP as explained by the three independent variables combined. The 3% is attributed to other factors, not included in this study. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends a more robust multivariate model to be employed to include more macro-economic variables to explain economic growth. A decade-to-decade comparison can also be done to compare the effects of the external debt on Kenyan economic growth in different time intervals. Fiscal and monetary policies should be reviewed to encourage more domestic and foreign investments and discourage external borrowing to fund budget deficits or projects with low or no returns.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in BRICS

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Godfrey Osaseri ◽  
Ifuero Osad Osamwonyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Effect Estimation

The study examines Stock Market development and economic growth in BRICS, Quarterly time series data for the period 1994QI to 2015Q4 were sourced from World Bank Indicator. The Panel Least Squares based on the fixed effect estimation was employed to determine how stock market development impacts on the economic growth of BRICS. Diagnostics tests were conducted to ascertain the robustness and stability of the regression results. The findings reveal that stock market development exerts significant impact on the economic growth. The study revealed that there is a positive correlation between stock market development indicators and BRICS’s economic growth. The study recommends that the weakness of each of the BRICS member country should be taken as policy focus and strategies necessary to strengthen them should be swiftly applied by the governments.

scholarly journals The Causal Nexus between Public Debt and Economic Growth, A Multivariate Time Series Analysis: Experience from a SAARC Nation

2020 ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Subroto Dey ◽  
Subrata Saha ◽  
Dipti Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

This research paper enquires about the topicality of the dependence of Bangladesh’s economy on public debt. Several authors examined the bearings of public debt and economic growth in different counties and they provided mixed results about the direction of the relation. This study is conducted to find out the causal relationship between public debt and growth from the perspective of Bangladesh’s economy, and we use export as a control variable. We excerpted annual time series data from the World Bank website (WDI), IMF, and fiscal year 1986 to 2018 data were gathered. One can treat budget deficit as the mother of public debt because the incarnation of the former usually precedents to the creation of the later. Several econometric tools have been behaved as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips – Peron (PP), Johansen co integration, Vector error correction model, and Granger casualty to explore short-run causality of public debt on growth.

scholarly journals Public Debt, Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth: A Study on Indian Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-601
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Internal Debt

External debt and internal debt form main components of the public debt structure in India. India’s debt profile shows increasing external debt and simultaneously increasing the deficit in current account which have impact on economic growth of India. Our study assesses the impact of India’s Gross External Debt (GED), Internal Debt (IND) and Current Account Deficit (CAD) on economic growth (GDP) by using time series data from 1998-99 to 2018-19. We intend to find long-run as well as short run relationship between the variables with the help of Eviews software. Stationarity of data is tested by considering Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test statistics and used Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result shows co-integration among the variables with one equation. The result of VECM shows existence of long-run relationship among the variables. But the study fails to find the short-run causality among the variables. The results show external debt (GED), internal debt (IND), and Current Account Deficit (CAD) have negative and statistically insignificant relationship with GDP. It shows increase in public debt and deficit in current account results in decrease in GDP growth.

scholarly journals Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth Rate: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2022 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 445-451
Author(s):  
Rabia Zafar ◽  
Muhammad Maleeq-Ul-Islam Zafar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

The major objective of this study is to check the effect of external debt on the GDP growth of Pakistan. For this purpose annual time series data were used for the period 1980 to 2020. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to check the stationary status of the data and the least square method was applied for the estimation of the results. For the analysis GDP growth rate was taken as a dependent variable and other variables, such as economic growth (Annual %), inflation rate (CPI %), Foreign Direct Investment net inflow (% of GDP), multi-lateral debt services (% of public and publically generated debt service), Total debt service (% of GNI), Short term debt (% of total reserves) were taken as explanatory variables. Findings revealed that the total debt and multilateral debt negatively affect the GDP growth rate, whereas, FDI and short term debt are positively associated with growth rate. It is suggested that to improve the economic growth Pakistan should focus on investment projects and there is a need to implementation better policies for foreign debt utilization

scholarly journals Co-Integration Approach to Analysing The Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-128
Author(s):  
Biradawa Kayadi ◽  
Confidence Chinwe Opara ◽  
Christy Twaliwi Zwingina ◽  
Udeme Okon Efanga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Ogbonna Ogbonna ◽  
Ihemeje Ihemeje ◽  
Obioma Obioma ◽  
Hanson Hanson ◽  
Amadi Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Analisis utang luar negeri, sukuk, inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia Tahun 2014-2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-100
Author(s):  
Septiana Sari ◽  
Fernaldi Anggadha Ratno
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Independent Variables

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of Foreign Debt (X1), Sukuk (X2), Inflation (X3) and Interest Rate (X4) on Economic Growth (Y). This type of research is quantitative research using regression analysis as data analysis and using secondary data in the form of time series. The data used are monthly data from Foreign Debt, Sukuk, Inflation and Interest Rates and Economic Growth in 2014-2019 Data that has been obtained 72 samples then analyzed using the application tool E-views 9. Based on the results of this study indicate that the partial dependent variable External Debt influences positively and insignificantly, Sukuk positively influences and insignificantly, Inflation influences positively and insignificantly and Interest Rates have a positive and insignificant effect on the independent variables Economic Growth shown through Gross Domestic Product (GDP ).

scholarly journals Islamic Capital Markets and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Dr. Mohammad Ayaz ◽  
Dr.Hassan Shakeel Shah ◽  
Dr. Talat Hussain ◽  
Majid Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research was conducted to find out whether Islamic capital markets (ICMs) have any effect on economic growth (EG). The study also made a comparison between three countries including Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE in this regard. Quantitative research technique was used in this study, where secondary and time series data was collected on a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2017. The effect of independent variables (IVs) on the dependent variable (DV) was examined. Co-integration and ARDL test were applied in Eviews 9 and Microfit 5.0. A growth model was developed for the selected countries separately in order to see whether IVs had any effect on DV. GDP was the DV of study while IMCAP, TNI and TNL were its IVs. It was found that in case of Pakistan and Malaysia, all the IVs had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in the long run only IMCAP and TNI have a significant impact. In case of UAE, only two IVs (IMCAP and TNL) had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in long run only one IV (IMCAP) has a significant impact. Further, it was found that IVs jointly had a significant effect on EG of the selected countries. So, this study concluded that ICMs do have a significant effect on EG of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE. Considering the importance of ICMs in EG, regulators and policy makers are likely to benefit from the results of the current study which acts as a guide for developing and reforming the ICMs of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE.Keywords: , , 

scholarly journals Impact of National Debt on Economic Growth in Tanzania: 1980-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-96
Author(s):  
Lemada Lesamana Lelya ◽  
Deus D. Ngaruko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper is based on the study that examined the impact of external and domestic debt on economic growth of Tanzania over the period 1980-2019. The study’s specific objectives were; to examine trends of external and domestic debts from 1980 to 2019, to determine long run relationship between external debt stock and economic growth in Tanzania from 1980 to 2019, and to examine the long run relationship between domestic debt and economic growth in Tanzania from 1980 to 2019. The study used time series data of Tanzania collected from the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Bank indicators. The study used Vector error correction model (VECM) for estimation of the time series since all the variables’ data were stationary in first difference I (1), and there was cointegration within the variables. To ensure the validity and reliability of the data; the study carried out normality test, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and unit root tests. The empirical findings reveal that both   external and domestic debt significantly affects the economic growth of Tanzania.  The study recommends that the government should promote moderate levels of domestic borrowing which can be sustained as it promotes economic growth if used in productive and efficient avenues. The study further recommends that policymakers should efficiently allocate and develop constraints that will ensure the external borrowing is utilized on more productive and  development expenditures, so that the finance is a source of increase in net investment in the country.

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