scholarly journals SECTORAL COMPOSITION AND TAX REVENUE PERFORMANCE IN ECOWAS COUNTRIES

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-55
Author(s):  
Nosakhare Liberty Arodoye ◽  
John Norense Izevbigie
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Sectoral Composition ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The study investigates sectoral composition and tax revenue performance in ECOWAS countries. Specifically, the study examines taxable capacity, tax efforts and tax structure of thirteen Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries taking into account three major sectors comprising agriculture, service and industrial sectors for the period 2000 to 2015. This is meant to bridge the gap in the extant literature which mainly focused on tax revenue to gross domestic product without taking into account taxable capacity and tax efforts with respect to specific sectors of the economy. The study employed stochastic frontier, forecast error variance decomposition, vector autoregression and the generalized methods of moment accordingly in the empirical analysis. The result from the analysis shows that the hypothesis of a low taxable capacity and tax efforts in the agricultural, industrial and service sectors in ECOWAS countries should be rejected. Specifically, the result revealed that though the three sectors are yet to be maximally exploited, the taxable capacity of ECOWAS countries is reasonably high. Also, the service and industrial sectors express more favourable responses to the tax revenue performance compared to the agricultural sector. It was recommended among others that on the average the governments of ECOWAS countries should formalize and strengthens tax revenue collections in the agricultural, service and industrial sectors.

scholarly journals Contribution of conventional bank lending for agricultural sector in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 331-342
Author(s):  
Hari Setia Putra ◽  
Yunnise Putri ◽  
Ali Anis ◽  
Zul Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Conventional Bank

This study examines the determinant contribution of conventional bank lending for the agricultural sector in Indonesia. The analysis method used in this research is the Vector Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that in the short term, there was no significant effect of the Non-Performing Loan (LogNPL), GDP of Agricultural Sector (LogPDB), and Agricultural Sector Credit Interest Rates (SBK). However, there is an effect of the LogNPL and LogPDB on the conventional bank lending for the agricultural sector in the long term. The LogNPL has a significant positive effect on the contribution of conventional bank lending to the agricultural sector. While the LogPDB has a significant negative effect on the contribution of conventional bank lending for the agricultural sector. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis results show that shocks to the LogNPL respond negatively in the long run, shocks to the LogPDB respond positively in the long run, and shocks to the SBK respond negatively in the long run by conventional bank lending for the agricultural sector. Through the analysis of FEVD (Forecast Error Variance Decomposition), it is known that the biggest contribution to conventional bank lending for the agricultural sector is agricultural credit and GDP.

The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662098119
Author(s):  
James E Payne ◽  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Passenger Travel ◽  
Forecast Error Variance

This research note extends the literature on the role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air travel through the examination of the forecast error variance decomposition of total overseas air travel and by regional destination. Our empirical findings indicate that across regional destinations, US economic policy uncertainty explains more of the forecast error variance of US overseas air travel, followed by geopolitical risk with global economic policy uncertainty explaining a much smaller percentage of the forecast error variance.

scholarly journals Sectoral Analysis of Employment Intensity of Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasaki Dauda ◽  
Omowumi Ajeigbe
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Sectoral Analysis ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
World Development

This study assessed employment intensity of growth (EIG) in the agriculture, industry and service sectors in Nigeria from 1991 to 2019 within the context of Okun’s theory/law. Data from the 2020 World Development Indicators were employed for analysis, using elasticity procedure after decomposing the scope into different periods and regimes. The findings showed negative EIG in the agriculture and industrial sectors while the service sector returned positive EIG. Therefore, government should invest significantly in the service sector while the agricultural sector should be mechanized to boost output and supply of raw materials to industries to enhance employment generation.

scholarly journals Predicting Water Availability in Water Bodies under the Influence of Precipitation and Water Management Actions Using VAR/VECM/LSTM

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 144
Author(s):  
Harleen Kaur ◽  
Mohammad Afshar Alam ◽  
Saleha Mariyam ◽  
Bhavya Alankar ◽  
Ritu Chauhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Water Treatments

Recently, awareness about the significance of water management has risen as population growth and global warming increase, and economic activities and land use continue to stress our water resources. In addition, global water sustenance efforts are crippled by capital-intensive water treatments and water reclamation projects. In this paper, a study of water bodies to predict the amount of water in each water body using identifiable unique features and to assess the behavior of these features on others in the event of shock was undertaken. A comparative study, using a parametric model, was conducted among Vector Autoregression (VAR), the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for determining the change in water level and water flow of water bodies. Besides, orthogonalized impulse responses (OIR) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) explaining the evolution of water levels and flow rates, the study shows the significance of VAR/VECM models over LSTM. It was found that on some water bodies, the VAR model gave reliable results. In contrast, water bodies such as water springs gave mixed results of VAR/VECM.

scholarly journals Oil Prices and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Moayad H. Al Rasasi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Positive Shock

This paper analyzes how changes in global oil prices affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate based on the monetary model of exchange rate. We find evidence indicating a negative relationship between oil prices and the USD exchange rate against 12 currencies. Specifically, the analysis of the impulse response function shows that the depreciation rate of the USD exchange rate ranges between 0.002 and 0.018 percentage points as a result of a one-standard deviation positive shock to the real price of crude oil. In the same vein, the forecast error variance decomposition analysis reveals that variation in the USD exchange rate is largely attributable to changes in the price of oil rather than monetary fundamentals. In last, the out-of-sample forecast exercise indicates that oil prices enhance the predictability power of the monetary model of exchange rate.

scholarly journals KAJIAN AKTIVITAS EKONOMI LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA PERIODE 1998-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Ryan Hawari ◽  
Fitri Kartiasih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Forecast Error Variance

Indonesia is a developing country which adopts an “open economic”. That caused Indonesia economic is strongly influenced by factors that come from outside of Indonesia. External factors in this research is referred to foreign debt, foreign direct investment, trade openness and exchange rate of rupiah with USD. The analytical method in this research used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which will focused on Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Based on result of IRF, exchange rate had a positive effect to economic growth, while foreign debt, foreign direct investment and trade openness had a negative effect to economic growth. Based on result of FEVD, shock on economic growth in Indonesia affected by economic growth itself (43.21%), followed by foreign debt (26.30%), trade openness (14.16%), foreign direct investment (8.29%) and exchange rate (8.04%) Keywords: economic growth, trade openness, VECM, IRF, FEVD

THE PRICE OF COCAINE AND THE COLOMBIAN PESO: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
ALEXI THOMPSON ◽  
YAYA SISSOKO
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
National Drug ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
National Drug Control Policy

While the underground economy is not explicitly included in the measure of (GDP), the cocaine trade has been a major source of revenue for Colombia. Using quarterly cocaine prices from 1982 to 2007 published by the Office of National Drug Control Policy, this paper uses vector error correction and forecast error variance decomposition methods to look at the relationship between cocaine prices and the peso/$ nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate cocaine prices affect the value of the Colombian peso, which leads to some interesting policy implications.

scholarly journals Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. McKenzie ◽  
Harold L. Goodwin ◽  
Rita I. Carreira
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decompositions

Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician's model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document