scholarly journals Application of transform software for downscaling global climate model EdGCM results in north-eastern Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahmida Ishaque ◽  
Israt Jahan Ripa ◽  
Altaf Hossain ◽  
Abdur Rashid Sarker ◽  
Gazi Tamiz Uddin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
P Value ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Geostatistical Approach ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Fine Resolution

Downscaling is a state-of-the-art technique to generate fine-resolution climate change prediction and an obvious tool for forecasting future climate scenarios for many data-scarce areas like Bangladesh. The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) predicts numerically and its performance was not evaluated for Bangladesh earlier. Due to this reason, an attempt has been made to apply a new geostatistical approach with the help of transform software to downscale EdGCM for identifying the trend of surface air temperature at the Sylhet district. Both Doubled_CO<sup>2</sup> and Global_Warming_01 are simulated from EdGCM and maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. Downscaling is applied to the outputs from Doubled_CO<sup>2</sup> scenario. Percent of bias (PBIAS), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the ratio of root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) values are satisfactory and acceptable. The trend analysis was performed using the Mann-Kendall Trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Temperature changes are significant for both downscaled and observed results of p-value which is less than alpha = 0.05. Mann-Kendall Z tests for annual downscaled and IPCC during (2006-2020) show a positive trend. Downscaled predicted annual average temperature (simulations by Doubled_CO<sup>2</sup>) for 2020 is 21.67˚C for the Sylhet district.

An Intraseasonal Mode Linking Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over Arctic and Eurasian Continent

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract Key processes associated with the leading intraseasonal variability mode of wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and the Arctic region are investigated in this study. Characterized by a dipole distribution in SAT anomalies centered over north Eurasia and the Arctic, respectively, and coherent temperature anomalies vertically extending from the surface to 300hPa, this leading intraseasonal SAT mode and associated circulation have pronounced influences on global surface temperature anomalies including the East Asian winter monsoon region. By taking advantage of realistic simulations of the intraseasonal SAT mode in a global climate model, it is illustrated that temperature anomalies in the troposphere associated with the leading SAT mode are mainly due to dynamic processes, especially via the horizontal advection of winter mean temperature by intraseasonal circulation. While the cloud-radiative feedback is not critical in sustaining the temperature variability in the troposphere, it is found to play a crucial role in coupling temperature anomalies at the surface and in the free-atmosphere through anomalous surface downward longwave radiation. The variability in clouds associated with the intraseasonal SAT mode is closely linked to moisture anomalies generated by similar advective processes as for temperature anomalies. Model experiments suggest that this leading intraseasonal SAT mode can be sustained by internal atmospheric processes in the troposphere over the mid-to-high latitudes by excluding forcings from Arctic sea ice variability, tropical convective variability, and the stratospheric processes.

scholarly journals Changes in Climate Extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Badrul Masud ◽  
Peeyush Soni ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Nitin K. Tripathi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
The Future ◽  
North Thailand ◽  
Extreme Indices

This study analyzes 24 climate extreme indices over North Thailand using observed data for daily maximum and minimum temperatures and total daily rainfall for the 1960–2010 period, and HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and PRECIS Regional Climate Model simulated data for the 1960–2100 period. A statistical downscaling tool is employed to downscale GCM outputs. Variations in and trends of historical and future climates are identified using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope. Temperature extreme indices showed a significant rising trend during the observed period and are expected to increase significantly with an increase in summer days and tropical nights in the future. A notable decline in the number of cool days and nights is also expected in the study area while the number of warm days and nights is expected to increase. There was an insignificant decrease in total annual rainfall, number of days with rainfall more than 10 and 20 mm. However, the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 9.65% in the future 2011–2099 period compared to the observed 1960–2010 period.

scholarly journals Simulation of black carbon in snow and its climate impact in the Canadian Global Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 18839-18882 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Namazi ◽  
K. von Salzen ◽  
J. N. S. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A new physically-based parameterization of black carbon (BC) in snow was developed and implemented in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Simulated BC snow mixing ratios and BC snow radiative forcings are in good agreement with measurements and results from other models. Simulations with the improved model yield considerable trends in regional BC concentrations in snow and BC snow radiative forcings during the time period from 1950–1959 to 2000–2009. Increases in radiative forcings for Asia and decreases for Europe and North America are found to be associated with changes in BC emissions. Additional sensitivity simulations were performed in order to study the impact of BC emission changes between 1950–1959 and 2000–2009 on surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface air temperature. Results from these simulations indicate that impacts of BC emission changes on snow albedos between these two decades are small and not significant. Overall, changes in BC concentrations in snow have much smaller impacts on the cryosphere than the net warming surface air temperatures during the second half of the 20th century.

scholarly journals EC-Earth3-AerChem, a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Twan van Noije ◽  
Tommi Bergman ◽  
Philippe Le Sager ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
Risto Makkonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and what the new features are compared to the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under pre-industrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The mean energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the pre-industrial control simulation is −0.10 ± 0.25 W m−2 and shows no significant drift. The corresponding mean global surface air temperature is 14.05 ± 0.16 °C, with a small drift of −0.075 ± 0.009 °C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 °C and its transient climate response at 2.1 °C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread among ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared to the ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ensemble mean surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.35 °C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.05 °C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant climate effects from the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 shared socio-economic pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 °C above the pre-industrial mean. A 0.5 °C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 °C.

Temperature and precipitation in Svalbard 1912–2050: measurements and scenarios

Polar Record ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 38 (206) ◽  
pp. 225-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Hanssen-Bauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Empirical Downscaling ◽  
The 1960S

AbstractTemperature and precipitation series from Svalbard for the period 1912–2000 were analysed. There was a statistically significant warming from 1912 to the 1930s, a cooling from the 1930s to the 1960s and a warming from the 1960s to present. There was a positive trend in the annual mean temperature during the period 1912–2000, but it was not statistically significant. Spring was the only season when a statistically significant warming was found. For precipitation, statistically significant positive trends during the period 1912–2000 were found on an annual basis and in all seasons except winter. Empirical downscaling was applied on the results from a global climate model to produce scenarios for monthly temperature and precipitation in Svalbard. The 2 m temperature was applied as predictor for temperature. For precipitation, a combination of temperature and sea-level pressure was used. The temperature scenario indicates a warming of about 1°C per decade in winter, and 0.3°C per decade in summer from 1961 to 2050. The projected increase in annual mean temperature is about five times the average warming rate from 1912 to present, and highly significant. The precipitation scenario also indicates that precipitation will increase significantly until 2050. The maximum increase was projected in spring precipitation; however, the trends in seasonal precipitation are quite uncertain.

scholarly journals Simulation of black carbon in snow and its climate impact in the Canadian Global Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 10887-10904 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Namazi ◽  
K. von Salzen ◽  
J. N. S. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A new physically based parameterisation of black carbon (BC) in snow was developed and implemented in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Simulated BC snow mixing ratios and BC snow radiative forcings are in good agreement with measurements and results from other models. Simulations with the improved model yield considerable trends in regional BC concentrations in snow and BC snow radiative forcings during the time period from 1950–1959 to 2000–2009. Increases in radiative forcings for Asia and decreases for Europe and North America are found to be associated with changes in BC emissions. Additional sensitivity simulations were performed in order to study the impact of BC emission changes between 1950–1959 and 2000–2009 on surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface air temperature. Results from these simulations indicate that impacts of BC emission changes on snow albedos between these 2 decades are small and not significant. Overall, changes in BC concentrations in snow have much smaller impacts on the cryosphere than the net warming surface air temperatures during the second half of the 20th century.

scholarly journals Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies as important boundary forcing in driving the interannual Warm Arctic-Cold Continent pattern over the North American sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Weina Guan ◽  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Xuejuan Ren ◽  
Gang Chen ◽  
Qinghua Ding
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
The North

AbstractThe leading interannual mode of winter surface air temperature over the North American (NA) sector, characterized by a “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” (WACC) pattern, exerts pronounced influences on NA weather and climate, while its underlying mechanisms remain elusive. In this study, the relative roles of surface boundary forcing versus internal atmospheric processes for the formation of the WACC pattern are quantitatively investigated using a combined analysis of observations and large-ensemble atmospheric global climate model simulations. Internal atmospheric variability is found to play an important role in shaping the year-to-year WACC variability, contributing to about half of the total variance. An anomalous SST pattern resembling the North Pacific Mode is identified as a major surface boundary forcing pattern in driving the interannual WACC variability over the NA sector, with a minor contribution from sea ice variability over the Chukchi- Bering Seas. Findings from this study not only lead to improved understanding of underlying physics regulating the interannual WACC variability, but also provide important guidance for improved modeling and prediction of regional climate variability over NA and the Arctic region.

scholarly journals Quantifying Southern Annular Mode paleo-reconstruction skill in a model framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1819-1839
Author(s):  
Willem Huiskamp ◽  
Shayne McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Network Size ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Broad Region

Abstract. Past attempts to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using paleo-archives have resulted in records which can differ significantly from one another prior to the window over which the proxies are calibrated. This study attempts to quantify not only the skill with which we may expect to reconstruct the SAM but also to assess the contribution of regional bias in proxy selection and the impact of non-stationary proxy–SAM teleconnections on a resulting reconstruction. This is achieved using a pseudoproxy framework with output from the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model. Reconstructions derived from precipitation fields perform better, with 89 % of the reconstructions calibrated over a 61 year window able to reproduce at least 50 % of the inter-annual variance in the SAM, as opposed to just 25 % for surface air temperature (SAT)-derived reconstructions. Non-stationarity of proxy–SAM teleconnections, as defined here, plays a small role in reconstructions, but the range in reconstruction skill is not negligible. Reconstructions are most likely to be skilful when proxies are sourced from a geographically broad region with a network size of at least 70 proxies.

Tropical Cyclone Changes in the Western North Pacific in a Global Warming Scenario

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2378-2396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Stowasser ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Kevin Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Climate System Model

Abstract The influence of global warming on the climatology of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin is examined using the high-resolution International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) regional climate model forced by ocean temperatures and horizontal boundary fields taken from the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 2 (CCSM2) coupled global climate model. The regional model is first tested in 10 yr of simulation with boundary forcing taken from observations and is shown to produce a reasonably good representation of the observed statistics of tropical cyclone numbers and locations. The model was then run for 10 yr with forcing from a present-day control run of the CCSM2 and then for 10 yr with forcing fields taken from the end of a long run with 6 times the present-day atmospheric CO2 concentration. The global-mean surface air temperature warming in the perturbed run is 4.5 K, while the surface warming in the tropical western North Pacific is about 3 K. The results of these experiments reveal no statistically significant change in basinwide tropical cyclone numbers in the peak season from July to October in response to the CO2 increase. However, a pronounced and statistically significant increase in tropical cyclone occurrence in the South China Sea is found. While the basinwide total number of storms remains nearly unchanged in the warm climate, there is a statistically significant increase in the average strength of the cyclones and in the number of the storms in the strongest wind categories.

scholarly journals EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 5637-5668
Author(s):  
Twan van Noije ◽  
Tommi Bergman ◽  
Philippe Le Sager ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
Risto Makkonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average −0.09 W m−2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m−2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∘C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∘C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∘C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∘C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∘C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.05 ∘C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∘C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∘C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∘C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 ∘C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∘C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∘C.

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