scholarly journals A proposal of regionalization for the application of the CN earthquake prediction algorithm to the Italian territory

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Peresan ◽  
G. Costa ◽  
G. F. Panza
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Kinematic Model ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Tool Selection ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Cn Algorithm ◽  
Italian Territory

A regionalization of the Italian territory, strictly based on seismotectonic zoning and the main geodynamic features of the Italian area, is proposed for intermediate-term earthquake prediction with CN algorithm. Three regions, composed of adjacent zones with the same seismogenic behaviour or with transitional properties, are selected for the north, centre and south of Italy, compatibly with the kinematic model. This regionalization allows us an average reduction of the spatial uncertainty of about 35% for the northern and central regions, and of about 70% for the southern region in comparison with previous studies. A general reduction of the percentage of total TIPs, with respect to the results obtained neglecting the seismotectonic zoning, has been observed as well. Therefore, it seems that the seismotectonic model is a useful tool selection of the fault systems involved in the preparation of strong earthquakes. The successful attempt of catalogue upgrading, accomplished using the NEIC Preliminary Determinations of Epicentres, appears to substantiate the robustness of the algorithm against changes in the catalogue.

scholarly journals Assessing ‘alarm-based CN’ earthquake predictions in Italy

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Taroni ◽  
Warner Marzocchi ◽  
Pamela Roselli
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
News Media ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Earthquake Predictions ◽  
Cn Algorithm ◽  
Italian Territory

<p>The quantitative assessment of the performance of earthquake prediction and/or forecast models is essential for evaluating their applicability for risk reduction purposes. Here we assess the earthquake prediction performance of the CN model applied to the Italian territory. This model has been widely publicized in Italian news media, but a careful assessment of its prediction performance is still lacking. In this paper we evaluate the results obtained so far from the CN algorithm applied to the Italian territory, by adopting widely used testing procedures and under development in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) network. Our results show that the CN prediction performance is comparable to the prediction performance of the stationary Poisson model, that is, CN predictions do not add more to what may be expected from random chance.</p>

A review of the tectonics of the northern Middle East region

1984 ◽  
Vol 121 (6) ◽  
pp. 577-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. E. R. Lovelock
Keyword(s):  
Late Cretaceous ◽  
Kinematic Model ◽  
Continental Collision ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Plate Motion ◽  
Arabian Plate ◽  
Southern Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
The Dead ◽  
Two Stages

AbstractThe structure of the northern part of the Arabian platform is reviewed in the light of hitherto unpublished exploration data and the presently accepted kinematic model of plate motion in the region. The Palmyra and Sinjar zones share a common history of development involving two stages of rifting, one in the Triassic–Jurassic and the other during late Cretaceous to early Tertiary times. Deformation of the Palmyra zone during the Mio-Pliocene is attributed to north–south compression on the eastern block of the Dead Sea transcurrent system which occurred after continental collision in the north in southeast Turkey. The asymmetry of the Palmyra zone is believed to result from northward underthrusting along the southern boundary facilitated by the presence of shallow Triassic evaporites. An important NW-SE cross-plate shear zone has been identified, which can be traced for 600 km and which controls the course of the River Euphrates over long distances in Syria and Iraq. Transcurrent motion along this zone resulted in the formation of narrow grabens during the late Cretaceous which were compressed during the Mio-Pliocene. To a large extent, present day structures in the region result from compressional reactivation of old lineaments within the Arabian plate by the transcurrent motion of the Dead Sea fault zone and subsequent continental collision.

SPATIAL LAYOUT OF THE SOVIET UNION TIMBER PROCESSING COMPLEX: THE IDEA BEHIND THE FIRST FIVE-YEAR PLAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-154
Author(s):  
Ivan V. ZYKIN
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Far East ◽  
Spatial Layout ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Central Regions

During the years of Soviet power, principal changes took place in the country’s wood industry, including in spatial layout development. Having the large-scale crisis in the industry in the late 1980s — 2000s and the positive changes in its functioning in recent years and the development of an industry strategy, it becomes relevant to analyze the experience of planning the spatial layout of the wood industry during the period of Stalin’s modernization, particularly during the first five-year plan. The aim of the article is to analyze the reason behind spatial layout of the Soviet wood industry during the implementation of the first five-year plan. The study is based on the modernization concept. In our research we conducted mapping of the wood industry by region as well as of planned construction of the industry facilities. It was revealed that the discussion and development of an industrialization project by the Soviet Union party-state and planning agencies in the second half of the 1920s led to increased attention to the wood industry. The sector, which enterprises were concentrated mainly in the north-west, west and central regions of the country, was set the task of increasing the volume of harvesting, export of wood and production to meet the domestic needs and the export needs of wood resources and materials. Due to weak level of development of the wood industry, the scale of these tasks required restructuring of the branch, its inclusion to the centralized economic system, the direction of large capital investments to the development of new forest areas and the construction of enterprises. It was concluded that according to the first five-year plan, the priority principles for the spatial development of the wood industry were the approach of production to forests and seaports, intrasectoral and intersectoral combining. The framework of the industry was meant to strengthen and expand by including forests to the economic turnover and building new enterprises in the European North and the Urals, where the main capital investments were sent, as well as in the Vyatka region, Transcaucasia, Siberia and the Far East.

CN Algorithm in Italy: Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction and Seismotectonic Model Validation.

2020 ◽  
pp. 193-201
Author(s):  
Giovanni Costa ◽  
Antonella Peresan ◽  
Ivanka Orozova ◽  
Giuliano Francesco Panza ◽  
Irina M. Rotwain
Keyword(s):  
Model Validation ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Seismotectonic Model ◽  
Cn Algorithm

scholarly journals Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Z. Li ◽  
Z. Q. Bai ◽  
W. S. Chen ◽  
Y. Q. Xia ◽  
Y. R. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Frequency Range ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Innovative Methods ◽  
The World ◽  
Infrasonic Wave

Abstract. The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.

scholarly journals On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

1997 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Gorshkov ◽  
V. I. Keilis-Borok ◽  
I. M. Rotwain ◽  
A. A. Soloviev ◽  
I. A. Vorobieva
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Block Structure ◽  
Seismicity Patterns ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Structure Dynamics ◽  
Prediction Algorithms ◽  
The Media

The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones.

scholarly journals Monitoring potential ionospheric changes caused by Van earthquake (Mw 7.2)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samed Inyurt ◽  
Selcuk Peker ◽  
Cetin Mekik
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Local Time ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Statistical Test ◽  
Van Earthquake ◽  
The North ◽  
The Times ◽  
Geomagnetic Activities

Abstract. Many scientists from different disciplines have studied earthquakes for many years. As a result of these studies, it has been proposed that some changes take place in the ionosphere layer before, during or after earthquakes, and the ionosphere should be monitored in earthquake prediction studies. This study investigates the changes in the ionosphere created by the earthquake with magnitude of Mw=7.2 in the northwest of the Lake Erçek which is located to the north of the province of Van in Turkey on 23 October 2011 and at 1.41 pm local time (−3 UT) with the epicenter of 38.75° N, 43.36° E using the TEC values obtained by the Global Ionosphere Models (GIM) created by IONOLAB-TEC and CODE. In order to see whether the ionospheric changes obtained by the study in question were caused by the earthquake or not, the ionospheric conditions were studied by utilizing indices providing information on solar and geomagnetic activities (F10.7 cm, Kp, Dst). One of the results of the statistical test on the TEC values obtained from the both models, positive and negative anomalies were obtained for the times before, on the day of and after the earthquake, and the reasons for these anomalies are discussed in detail in the last section of the study. As the ionospheric conditions in the analyzed days were highly variable, it was thought that the anomalies were caused by geomagnetic effects, solar activity and the earthquake.

Economic Growth Potentials and Race/Ethnicity in Tennessee

2021 ◽  
pp. 1119-1142
Author(s):  
Madhuri Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Community Survey ◽  
Creative Class ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Racial Ethnic

This article establishes relationships between racial/ethnic diversity, segregation, and employment-by-industry-types in the counties of Tennessee. Using the American Community Survey and NAICS data, diversity scores, entropy indices, and location quotients for major-employment are computed for Tennessee's 95 counties. Cartographic analysis, followed by correlations, principal components and regression analyses help establish the above relationships. The north-east and west-central regions of Tennessee have concentration in primary-sectors of economy whereas counties with concentration in creative-class economy (e.g., Williamson, Davidson) have higher presence of Asians, and with greater human capital (education). Simultaneously, these are also the most segregated despite being diverse. Counties with higher diversity and higher share of African-Americans are segregated, despite having employment concentration in diverse set of industries. Enormous growth potentials exist in the sectors of education and health-care which can help Tennessee revitalize its economy.

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