scholarly journals Summer temperature and all-cause mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1474-1481
Author(s):  
Suresh K Rathi ◽  
Prahlad R Sodani
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
City Population ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Background: Studies have documented a significant association between temperature and all-cause mortality for various cities but such data are unavailable for Hyderabad City. Objective: The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad city population. Methods: We obtained the data on temperature and all-cause mortality for at least ten years for summer months. Descriptive and Bivariate analysis were conducted. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality for lag time effect. Results: A total of 122,117 deaths for 1,220 summer days (2006 to 2015) were analyzed with mean daily all-cause mortality was 100.1±21.5. There is an increase of 16% and 17% per day mean all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of ≥40oC and for extreme danger days (Heat Index >54oC) respectively. The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with maximum temperature (P < 0.001) and Heat Index from caution to extreme danger risk days (P < 0.0183). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at peak on same day of the maximum temperature (r = 0.273 at p<0.01). Conclusion: The study concludes that the impact of ambient heat in the rise of all-cause mortality is clearly evident (16% mean deaths/day). There was no lag effect from the effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality as the peak period was the same as the maximum temperature. Hence heat action plans are needed. However, extreme heat-related mortality merits further analysis. Keywords: Heat wave; all-cause mortality; urban; humidity; heat index; India.

scholarly journals Building Resilience to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India’s First Heat Action Plan on All-Cause Mortality

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy J. Hess ◽  
Sathish LM ◽  
Kim Knowlton ◽  
Shubhayu Saha ◽  
Priya Dutta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Rate Ratios ◽  
The Impact

Background. Ahmedabad implemented South Asia’s first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP’s impact on all-cause mortality in 2014–2015 relative to a 2007–2010 baseline. Methods. We analyzed daily maximum temperature (Tmax)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs. Results. The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98–2.76) at 47°C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02–1.53) estimated at 47°C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for Tmax over 40°C was 0.95 (0.73–1.22) and 0.73 (0.29–1.81) for Tmax over 45°C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162–2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period. Conclusion. Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad’s plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.

scholarly journals Spatio–temporal Assessment of Drought in Ethiopia and the Impact of Recent Intense Droughts

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 1828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuei-An Liou ◽  
Getachew Mehabie Mulualem
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Northwestern Part ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

The recent droughts that have occurred in different parts of Ethiopia are generally linked to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean circulations. Understanding these large-scale phenomena that play a crucial role in vegetation productivity in Ethiopia is important. In view of this, several techniques and datasets were analyzed to study the spatio–temporal variability of vegetation in response to a changing climate. In this study, 18 years (2001–2018) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroscopy (MODIS) Terra/Aqua, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) daily precipitation, and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) soil moisture datasets were processed. Pixel-based Mann–Kendall trend analysis and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were used to assess the drought patterns during the cropping season. Results indicate that the central highlands and northwestern part of Ethiopia, which have land cover dominated by cropland, had experienced decreasing precipitation and NDVI trends. About 52.8% of the pixels showed a decreasing precipitation trend, of which the significant decreasing trends focused on the central and low land areas. Also, 41.67% of the pixels showed a decreasing NDVI trend, especially in major parts of the northwestern region of Ethiopia. Based on the trend test and VCI analysis, significant countrywide droughts occurred during the El Niño 2009 and 2015 years. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis assures that the low NDVI was mainly attributed to the low precipitation and water availability in the soils. This study provides valuable information in identifying the locations with the potential concern of drought and planning for immediate action of relief measures. Furthermore, this paper presents the results of the first attempt to apply a recently developed index, the Normalized Difference Latent Heat Index (NDLI), to monitor drought conditions. The results show that the NDLI has a high correlation with NDVI (r = 0.96), precipitation (r = 0.81), soil moisture (r = 0.73), and LST (r = −0.67). NDLI successfully captures the historical droughts and shows a notable correlation with the climatic variables. The analysis shows that using the radiances of green, red, and short wave infrared (SWIR), a simplified crop monitoring model with satisfactory accuracy and easiness can be developed.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the impacts of climate variability on rainfed maize production over the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this study, the impact of inter-seasonal climate variability on rainfed maize (Zea mays) production over the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania is evaluated. Daily high-resolution climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment_Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs) are used to drive the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) to simulate maize yields. Climate simulations for the base period of 35 years (1971–2005) are used to drive DSSAT to simulate maize yields during the historical climate. On the other hand, climate projections for the period 2010–2039 (current), 2040–2069 (mid), and 2070–2099 centuries for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP45 and 85) emission scenarios are used to drive DSSAT to simulate maize yields in respective centuries. Statistical approaches based on Pearson correlation coefficient and the coefficients of determination are used in the analysis. Results show that rainfall, maximum temperature, and solar radiation are the most important climate variables that determine variation in rainfed maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania. They explain the variability in maize yields in historical climate condition (1971–2005), present century under RCP 4.5, and mid and end centuries under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

A population-based case–control study of the association between weather-related extreme heat events and low birthweight

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Wayne R. Lawrence ◽  
Aida Soim ◽  
Wangjian Zhang ◽  
Ziqiang Lin ◽  
Yi Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Control Study ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Control Study

Abstract Although prenatal exposure to high ambient temperatures were reported to be associated with preterm birth, limited research assessed the impact of weather-related extreme heat events (EHE) on birthweight, particularly by trimester. We, therefore, investigated the impact of prenatal EHE on birthweight among term babies (tLBW) by trimester and birthweight percentile. We conducted a population-based case–control study on singleton live births at 38–42 gestational weeks in New York State (NYS) by linking weather data with NYS birth certificates. A total of 22,615 cases were identified as birthweight <2500 gram, and a random sample of 139,168 normal birthweight controls was included. EHE was defined as three consecutive days with the maximum temperatures of ≥32.2 °C/90 °F (EHE90) and two consecutive days of temperatures ≥97th percentile (EHE97) based on the distribution of the maximum temperature for the season and region. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with multivariable unconditional logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Overall exposure to EHE97 for 2 d was associated with tLBW (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02, 1.09); however, the strongest associations were only observed in the first trimester for both heat indicators, especially when exposure was ≥3 d (ORs ranged: 1.06–1.13). EHE in the first trimester was associated with significant reduction in mean birthweight from 26.78 gram (EHE90) to 36.25 gram (EHE97), which mainly affected the 40th and 60th birthweight percentiles. Findings revealed associations between multiple heat indicators and tLBW, where the impact was consistently strongest in the first trimester.

scholarly journals The Influence of Heat on Daily Police, Medical, and Fire Dispatches in Boston, Massachusetts: Relative Risk and Time-Series Analyses

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 662-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augusta A. Williams ◽  
Joseph G. Allen ◽  
Paul J. Catalano ◽  
Jonathan J. Buonocore ◽  
John D. Spengler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Emergency Medical ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

Objectives. To examine the impact of extreme heat on emergency services in Boston, MA. Methods. We conducted relative risk and time series analyses of 911 dispatches of the Boston Police Department (BPD), Boston Emergency Medical Services (BEMS), and Boston Fire Department (BFD) from November 2010 to April 2014 to assess the impact of extreme heat on emergency services. Results. During the warm season, there were 2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0%, 5%) more BPD dispatches, 9% (95% CI = 7%, 12%) more BEMS dispatches, and 10% (95% CI = 5%, 15%) more BFD dispatches on days when the maximum temperature was 90°F or higher, which remained consistent when we considered multiple days of heat. A 10°F increase in daily maximum temperature, from 80° to 90°F, resulted in 1.016, 1.017, and 1.002 times the expected number of daily BPD, BEMS, and BFD dispatch calls, on average, after adjustment for other predictors. Conclusions. The burden of extreme heat on local emergency medical and police services may be agency-wide, and impacts on fire departments have not been previously documented. Public Health Implications. It is important to account for the societal burden of extreme heat impacts to most effectively inform climate change adaptation strategies and planning.

scholarly journals Vegetation Change and Its Response to Climate Change in Yunnan Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Huaizhang Sun ◽  
Jiyan Wang ◽  
Junnan Xiong ◽  
Jinhu Bian ◽  
Huaan Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
The Impact

The impact of global climate change on vegetation has become increasingly prominent over the past several decades. Understanding vegetation change and its response to climate can provide fundamental information for environmental resource management. In recent years, the arid climate and fragile ecosystem have led to great changes in vegetation in Yunnan Province, so it is very important to further study the relationship between vegetation and climate. In this study, we explored the temporal changes of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in different seasons based on MOD13Q1 NDVI by the maximum value composite and then analyzed spatial distribution characteristics of vegetation using Sen’s tendency estimation, Mann–Kendall significance test, and coefficient of variation model (CV) combined with terrain factors. Finally, the concurrent and lagged effects of NDVI on climate factors in different seasons and months were discussed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The results indicate that (1) the temporal variation of the NDVI showed that the NDVI values of different vegetation types increased at different rates, especially in growing season, spring, and autumn; (2) for spatial patterns, the NDVI, CV, and NDVI trends had strong spatial heterogeneity owning to the influence of altitudes, slopes, and aspects; and (3) the concurrent effect of vegetation on climate change indicates that the positive effect of temperature on NDVI was mainly in growing season and autumn, whereas spring NDVI was mainly influenced by precipitation. In addition, the lag effect analysis results revealed that spring precipitation has a definite inhibition effect on summer and autumn vegetation, but spring and summer temperature can promote the growth of vegetation. Meanwhile, the precipitation in the late growing season has a lag effect of 1-2 months on vegetation growth, and air temperature has a lag effect of 1 month in the middle of the growing season. Based on the above results, this study provided valuable information for ecosystem degradation and ecological environment protection in the Yunnan Province.

Summer Temperature and All-cause Mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Smart City Jaipur, India

2021 ◽  
pp. 097206342110116
Author(s):  
Suresh K. Rathi ◽  
P. R. Sodani ◽  
Suresh Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Mean

A considerable association between temperature and all-cause mortality has been documented in various studies. Further insights can be obtained from studying the impact of temperature and heat index (HI) for Jaipur city’s all-cause mortality. The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat (daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily mean temperature, relative humidity and HI) and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for urban population of Jaipur. For summer months, we collected the data on various temperature and all-cause mortality parameters for at least 10 years. The student’s t-test and ANOVA were used to analyse variations in mean temperature, maximum temperature and HI. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between ambient heat and lag time effect all-cause mortality. A total of 75,571 deaths (all-cause mortality) for 1,203 summer days (2006–2015) were analysed in relation to temperature and relative humidity. The mean daily all-cause mortality has been estimated at 62.8 ± 15.2 for the study period. There is a significant increase of 39% per day all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of 45 °C and above. However only 10% rise per day all-cause mortality for extreme danger days (HI > 54 °C). The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with daily maximum temperature ( F = 34.6, P < .0001) and HI (discomfort index) from caution to extreme danger risk days ( F = 5.0, P < .0019). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at a peak period on the same day of the maximum temperature ( r = 0.245 at P < .01) but continues up to four days. The study concludes that the effect of ambient heat on all-cause mortality increase is clearly evident (rise of 39% deaths/day). Accordingly, focus should be put on developing adaptation measures against ambient heat. This analysis may satisfy policy makers’ needs. Extreme heat-related mortality needs further study to reduce adverse effects on health among Jaipur’s urban population.

scholarly journals Effects of heat extremes on wheat yields in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 314
Author(s):  
Ben Hague ◽  
Karl Braganza ◽  
David Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Many agricultural studies have identified that wheat yield is sensitive to seasonal rainfall and extreme high temperatures. We investigate the impact of extreme heat events, in particular on wheat yields in South-East Australia (SEA) and South-West Western Australia (SWWA).We define a &apos;heat-day&apos; as a day where the daily maximum temperature exceeds the 1911–2013 90th percentile for the respective calendar month. We find that the number of heat-days has experienced statistically significant increases across most months across much of Australia, particularly in South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. The trends are especially marked in winter, including in key wheat-growing regions. The temperatures recorded on these hottest days have also shown a statistically significant increase over the last 100 years.We find that, while wheat yields are more strongly correlated with rainfall than with the number of heat-days, there is substantial evidence to suggest that during drought conditions wheat yields are sensitive to the number of heat-days recorded in August and September in SEA and September and October in SWWA. Extreme heat and rainfall have a stronger association with below-average yields than above-average yields.Extreme temperatures and rainfall in these regions are related to major Australian climate drivers which form the basis of seasonal prediction models and are important for natural variability and long-term climate change. Here we assess the degree to which wheat yields in both regions can be related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We find that positive IOD events and El Niño events are both associated with reductions in wheat yields in SEA, but that the co-incidence of these events have no additional wheat yield reductions than would be expected if either a positive IOD or El Niño event occurs. The average annual wheat yield loss associated with El Niño state and/or positive IOD state in SEA is estimated to around sixteen to twenty one per cent.This paper provides insights into the historical relationships between wheat yields, extreme heat and climatic modes of variability in Australia, and discusses the possibilities for changes in wheat yields under a future climate change scenario.

scholarly journals P064: Hot days make for long stays: the impact of extreme heat events on emergency department lengths of stay and volumes in two Canadian community hospitals

CJEM ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (S1) ◽  
pp. S87-S87
Author(s):  
F. Kegel ◽  
O. Luo ◽  
S. Richer
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Services ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Community Hospitals ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heat Events

Introduction: The average temperature in Canada has risen 1.7°C between 1948-2016, increasing the frequency, severity and duration of extreme heat events. These events can exacerbate underlying health conditions, bringing patients to emergency departments (EDs). There is limited data associating sustained heat events to Canadian ED volumes and performance. This retrospective analysis assessed the impact of humidex and temperature on ED volume and length of stay (LOS). Methods: LOS is an indicator of ED overcrowding and system performance. The authors compared median and maximum LOS (hours) and patient volumes in both ambulatory and stretcher ED sections of two community hospitals (NDH, VH) in Montreal, QC to humidex and temperature during the summers of 2016-2018. Data were analyzed with one-way ANOVA and post hoc means analysis with Fisher LSD tests of a priori determined thresholds of mean three-day maximum humidex and temperature preceding ED presentation. Results: The mean maximum humidex and temperature values for the 2016-2018 summers in Montreal, QC were 30.4 and 26.1°C, respectively (n = 276 days). Elevated mean three-day maximum humidex was associated with increased ED volumes (F[3,88] = 4.2,p = 0.008) and median LOS (F[3,88] = 7.7,p = 0.0001) in the NDH. Mean three-day maximum humidex was associated with ED volumes (F[3,272) = 2.9,p = 0.03) but not with median and maximum LOS (p > 0.05) in the VH. Parallel comparisons with mean three-day maximum temperature similarly showed an association with increased ED volumes (F[3,88] = 5.0,p = 0.003) and increased duration of median LOS (F[3,88] = 3.5,p = 0.02) in the NDH. Mean three-day maximum temperature was associated with increased ED volumes (F[3,272] = 3.3,p = 0.02) but not with median and maximum LOS (p > 0.05) in the VH. Conclusion: Warming climates are associated with an increased number of ED presentations and longer median ED LOS. As heat events disproportionately impacted NDH, future investigations need to determine why these two hospitals were affected differently. This study provides local evidence that climate change can disrupt emergency services by increasing the demand for and delaying timely care. This is the first study that the authors are aware of that demonstrates these findings. Hospitals need to be climate ready. Heat waves often happen during times when summer bed closures and vacations already impact system capacity. EDs should dynamically adapt to meet community needs during periods of extreme heat.

Characteristics of Physician Relocation Following Hurricane Katrina

2009 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Kusuma Madamala ◽  
Claudia R. Campbell ◽  
Edbert B. Hsu ◽  
Yu-Hsiang Hsieh ◽  
James James
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
General Medicine ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Fisher Exact Test ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Introduction: On Aug. 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States, resulting in the evacuation of more than 1.5 million people, including nearly 6000 physicians. This article examines the relocation patterns of physicians following the storm, determines the impact that the disaster had on their lives and practices, and identifies lessons learned. Methods: An Internet-based survey was conducted among licensed physicians reporting addresses within Federal Emergency Management Agency-designated disaster zones in Louisiana and Mississippi. Descriptive data analysis was used to describe respondent characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the factors associated with physician nonreturn to original practice. For those remaining relocated out of state, bivariate analysis with x2 or Fisher exact test was used to determine factors associated with plans to return to original practice. Results: A total of 312 eligible responses were collected. Among disaster zone respondents, 85.6 percent lived in Louisiana and 14.4 percent resided in Mississippi before the hurricane struck. By spring 2006, 75.6 percent (n = 236) of the respondents had returned to their original homes, whereas 24.4 percent (n = 76) remained displaced. Factors associated with nonreturn to original employment included family or general medicine practice (OR 0.42, 95 percent CI 0.17–1.04; P = .059) and severe or complete damage to the workplace (OR 0.24, 95 percent CI 0.13–0.42; P &lt; .001). Conclusions: A sizeable proportion of physicians remain displaced after Hurricane Katrina, along with a lasting decrease in the number of physicians serving in the areas affected by the disaster. Programs designed to address identified physician needs in the aftermath of the storm may give confidence to displaced physicians to return.

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