scholarly journals Potential Range Expansion of the Invasive Red Shiner, <i>Cyprinella lutrensis</i> (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under Future Climatic Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 04 (09) ◽  
pp. 554-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M. Poulos ◽  
Barry Chernoff
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Cyprinella Lutrensis ◽  
Future Climatic Change ◽  
Red Shiner

scholarly journals Potential range expansion of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under future climatic change

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M Poulos ◽  
Barry Chernoff
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Cyprinella Lutrensis ◽  
Future Climatic Change ◽  
Red Shiner

We built climate envelope models under contemporary and future climates to explore potential range shifts of the invasive Red Shiner-Cyprinella lutrensis. Our objective was to estimate aquatic habitat vulnerability to Red Shiner invasion in North America under future climatic change. We used presence records from within the species’ native and invaded distributions, a suite of bioclimatic predictor variables from three climate models (CCCma, CSIRO, and HadCM3), and maximum entropy modeling to generate potential distribution maps for the year 2080. Our model predicted major range expansion by Red Shiner under both low and high carbon emissions scenarios. The models exceeded average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve values of 0.92, indicating good overall model performance. The model predictions fell largely outside of areas of climatic extrapolation (i.e. regions predicted into environments different from training region) indicating good model performance. The results from this study highlight the large potential range expansion across North America of Red Shiner under future warmer climates.

scholarly journals Potential range expansion of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under future climatic change

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M Poulos ◽  
Barry Chernoff
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Cyprinella Lutrensis ◽  
Future Climatic Change ◽  
Red Shiner

We built climate envelope models under contemporary and future climates to explore potential range shifts of the invasive Red Shiner-Cyprinella lutrensis. Our objective was to estimate aquatic habitat vulnerability to Red Shiner invasion in North America under future climatic change. We used presence records from within the species’ native and invaded distributions, a suite of bioclimatic predictor variables from three climate models (CCCma, CSIRO, and HadCM3), and maximum entropy modeling to generate potential distribution maps for the year 2080. Our model predicted major range expansion by Red Shiner under both low and high carbon emissions scenarios. The models exceeded average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve values of 0.92, indicating good overall model performance. The model predictions fell largely outside of areas of climatic extrapolation (i.e. regions predicted into environments different from training region) indicating good model performance. The results from this study highlight the large potential range expansion across North America of Red Shiner under future warmer climates.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 831
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte ◽  
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger ◽  
Uemmerson Silva da Cunha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

Modeling Potential Range Expansion of the Invasive Shrub Leucaena leucocephala in the Hengchun Peninsula, Taiwan

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 492-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chyi-Rong Chiou ◽  
Hsiao-Hsuan Wang ◽  
Yen-Jui Chen ◽  
William E. Grant ◽  
Ming-Lun Lu
Keyword(s):  
Range Expansion ◽  
Leucaena Leucocephala ◽  
Forest Edge ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Invasive Shrub ◽  
Agriculture Land ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Presence And Absence

AbstractPrediction of invasive species distributions from survey data is widely recognized as a significant component of forest management and conservation planning. Leucaena leucocephala is the most aggressive invasive shrub and tree in the Hengchun peninsula in southern Taiwan. We analyzed geo-referenced data to identify potential variables of invasion and to predict likelihood of further invasion using boosted regression trees. Our results, which classified 92% of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion is correlated with climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation), landscape features (altitude; slope ratio and aspect; percentages of natural or secondary forest, agriculture land, developed area, and water bodies; and distances to the nearest forest edge and river), and anthropogenic factors (length of forest edge, and distances to the nearest road and agriculture land). The most influential variables are average annual temperature, altitude, precipitation, and slope. Continued range expansion by L. leucocephala is most likely to proceed (1) from the eastern and western portions toward the central portion of Hengchun township and (2) throughout the southern and toward the eastern portions of Manjhou township. Our model should provide useful information to aid forest managers in the development of long term monitoring and control strategies for L. leucocephala, in the early detection and eradication of newly established invasions, and also a framework for the integration and analysis of new presence and absence field data as they become available.

scholarly journals Potential Range Expansion of Japanese Honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica Thunb.) in Southern U.S. Forestlands

Forests ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 573-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Hsuan Wang ◽  
Carissa L. Wonkka ◽  
William E. Grant ◽  
William E. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Range Expansion ◽  
Lonicera Japonica ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Japanese Honeysuckle
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