scholarly journals Assessment of the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events in October 2019 over the East Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 319-338
Author(s):  
Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a ◽  
Agnes Lawrence Kijazi ◽  
Kantamla Biseke Mafuru ◽  
Alfred Lawrence Kondowe ◽  
Sarah Emirald Osima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Understanding the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of the Extreme Rainfall Events in March-May 2017 to 2020 in East Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 553-572
Author(s):  
Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a ◽  
Agnes Lawrence Kijazi ◽  
Kantamla Biseke Mafuru ◽  
Patricia Achieng Nying’uro ◽  
Musa Ssemujju ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events

scholarly journals On the Epochal Strengthening in the Relationship between Rainfall of East Africa and IOD

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 5655-5673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Desmond Manatsa ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre

Abstract Variability of the equatorial East Africa “short rains” (EASR) has intensified significantly since the turn of the twentieth century. This increase toward more extreme rainfall events has not been gradual but is strongly characterized by epochs. The rain gauge–based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly precipitation dataset for the period 1901–2009 is used to demonstrate that the epochal changes were dictated by shifts in the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. These shifts occurred during 1961 and 1997. In the pre-1961 period, there was virtually no significant linear link between the IOD and the EASR. But a relatively strong coupling between the two occurred abruptly in 1961 and was generally maintained at that level until 1997, when another sudden shift to even a greater level occurred. The first principal component (PC1) extracted from the EASR spatial domain initially merely explained about 50% of the rainfall variability before 1961, and then catapulted to about 73% for the period from 1961 to 1997, before eventually shifting to exceed 82% after 1997. The PC1 for each successive epoch also displayed loadings with notably improved spatial coherence. This systematic pattern of increase was accompanied by both a sharp increase in the frequency of rainfall extremes and spatial coherence of the rainfall events over the region. Therefore, it is most likely that the 1961 and 1997 IOD shifts are responsible for the epochal modulation of the EASR in both the spatial and temporal domain.

The Influence of Geographical Factors on Extreme Rainfalls in Lampung Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
M Welly
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Ungauged Basin ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Geographical Factors

Many people in Indonesia calculate design rainfall before calculating the design flooddischarge. The design rainfall with a certain return period will eventually be convertedinto a design flood discharge by combining it with the characteristics of the watershed.However, the lack of a network of rainfall recording stations makes many areas that arenot hydrologically measured (ungauged basin), so it is quite difficult to know thecharacteristics of rain in the area concerned. This study aims to analyze thecharacteristics of design rainfall in Lampung Province. The focus of the analysis is toinvestigate whether geographical factors influence the design rainfall that occurs in theparticular area. The data used in this study is daily rainfall data from 15 rainfallrecording stations spread in Lampung Province. The method of frequency analysis usedin this study is the Gumbel method. The research shows that the geographical location ofan area does not have significant effect on extreme rainfall events. The effect of risingearth temperatures due to natural exploitation by humans tends to be stronger as a causeof extreme events such as extreme rainfall.Keywords: Influence, geographical, factors, extreme, rainfall.

CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL: PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 413 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Becker Nunes ◽  
Gilson Carlos Da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
History Of ◽  
Santa Catarina State

ABSTRACT. The eastern region of Santa Catarina State (Brazil) has an important history of natural disasters due to extreme rainfall events. Floods and landslides are enhancedby local features such as orography and urbanization: the replacement of natural surface coverage causing more surface runoff and, hence, flooding. Thus, studies of this type of events – which directly influence life in the towns – take on increasing importance. This work makes a quantitative analysis of occurrences of extreme rainfall events in the eastern and northern regions of Santa Catarina State in the last 60 years, through individual analysis, considering the history of floods ineach selected town, as well as an estimate through to the end of century following regional climate modeling. A positive linear trend, in most of the towns studied, was observed in the results, indicating greater frequency of these events in recent decades, and the HadRM3P climate model shows a heterogeneous increase of events for all towns in the period from 2071 to 2100.Keywords: floods, climate modeling, linear trend. RESUMO. A região leste do Estado de Santa Catarina tem um importante histórico de desastres naturais ocasionados por eventos extremos de precipitação. Inundações e deslizamentos de terra são potencializados pelo relevo acidentado e pela urbanização das cidades da região: a vegetação nativa vem sendo removida acarretando um maior escoamento superficial e, consequentemente, em inundações. Desta forma, torna-se de suma importância os estudos acerca deste tipo de evento que influencia diretamente a sociedade em geral. Neste trabalho é realizada uma análise quantitativa do número de eventos severos de precipitação ocorridos nas regiões leste e norte de Santa Catarina dos últimos 60 anos, por meio de uma análise pontual, considerandoo histórico de inundações de cada cidade selecionada, além de uma projeção para o fim do século de acordo com modelagem climática regional. Na análise dos resultados observou-se uma tendência linear positiva na maioria das cidades, indicando uma maior frequência deste tipo de evento nas últimas décadas, e o modelo climático HadRM3P mostra um aumento heterogêneo no número de eventos para todas as cidades no período de 2071 a 2100.Palavras-chave: inundações, modelagem climática, tendência linear.

Comparing vulnerability and institutional capacities in three Latin American coastal localities in response to extreme rainfall events

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Ruiz-Luna ◽  
Claudia Martínez-Peralta ◽  
Patricia P. B. Eichler ◽  
Leonardo R. Teixeira ◽  
Montserrat Acosta-Morel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Deo ◽  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Hamish Ramsay ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook ◽  
Simon McGree ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Inactive Phase ◽  
Pacific Island Nations

AbstractSouthwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

scholarly journals Trends in the Frequency of Intense Precipitation Events in Southern and Southeastern Brazil during 1960–2004

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1913-1921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus da Silva Teixeira ◽  
Prakki Satyamurty
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract A new approach to define heavy and extreme rainfall events based on cluster analysis and area-average rainfall series is presented. The annual frequency of the heavy and extreme rainfall events is obtained for the southeastern and southern Brazil regions. In the 1960–2004 period, 510 (98) and 466 (77) heavy (extreme) rainfall events are identified in the two regions. Monthly distributions of the events closely follow the monthly climatological rainfall in the two regions. In both regions, annual heavy and extreme rainfall event frequencies present increasing trends in the 45-yr period. However, only in southern Brazil is the trend statistically significant. Although longer time series are necessary to ensure the existence of long-term trends, the positive trends are somewhat alarming since they indicate that climate changes, in terms of rainfall regimes, are possibly under way in Brazil.

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