Appendix E Examples of Demographic Influences on Crude Birth Rates and Population Growth

1971 ◽  
pp. 366-368
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Birth Rates

The Demography of Two West African (Gambian) Villages, 1951–75

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Z. Billewicz ◽  
I. A. McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
West African ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Live Births ◽  
First Child ◽  
Specific Mortality

SummaryFrom a longitudinal study over 25 years (1951–75) of two adjacent Gambian villages, the data allow estimates of population growth, birth rates, age-specific mortality, female fertility, and infertility rates in the two sexes. Such intensive but small scale local inquiries provide valuable information on topics not covered in official published statistics, and also data from which the reliability of some census details can be estimated. There are many similarities but also differences between the two villages. Population growth rate was 1·1% per annum for Keneba and 2·2% for Manduar. Crude death rates averaged 36·7 per thousand for Keneba and 24·7 for Manduar and showed little difference between the sexes. For Keneba and Manduar respectively stillbirth rates were 63·9 and 88·6, first week mortality 49·2 and 44·9 and neonatal mortality 85·2 and 49·6 per thousand live births. In Keneba, where survival to age 5 years averaged 50%, young child mortality was significantly higher than in Manduar but mortality at older ages was not. Season profoundly affected child mortality: about 45% of all deaths under 15 years occurred in the late wet season, August–October. Maternal mortality in Keneba was 10·5 and in Manduar 9·5 per thousand. Crude birth rates averaged 58·4 per thousand for Keneba and 49·0 for Manduar, rates per thousand women aged 15·44 years averaging 248·5 and 215·3 respectively.In both villages mean birth interval increased progressively with the survival of the preceding child. In Keneba the interval increased from about 16 months when the first of the two children was stillborn to nearly 37 months when the first child survived to 2 years. In Manduar the corresponding values were 19 and 36 months. Analyses of obstetric histories indicated that total fertility was of the order of 7·5 live births per woman in Keneba and 6·4 in Manduar. Estimates of primary infertility for females were 3·6% in Keneba and 5·6% in Manduar, and for males 3·1% and 1·9%. Estimates of secondary infertility in females were 13% in Keneba and 19% in Manduar.

scholarly journals Determinants of human population growth

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1425) ◽  
pp. 1197-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
Ren Qiang
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Human Population Growth ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Human Birth

The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic transition and the preconditions for a lasting secular fertility decline. Recent fertility declines in all parts of the world now make it likely that human population growth will come to an end over the course of this century, but in parts of the developing world significant population growth is still to be expected over the coming decades. The slowing of population growth through declining birth rates, together with still increasing life expectancy, will result in a strong ageing of population age structure. Finally, this paper presents a global level systematic analysis of the relationship between population density on the one hand, and growth and fertility rates on the other. This analysis indicates that in addition to the well–studied social and economic determinants, population density also presents a significant factor for the levels and trends of human birth rates.

scholarly journals Prediksi Angka Kelahiran Bayi Pada Desa Tridaya Sakti Dengan Menggunakan Algoritma Naive Bayes

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-88
Author(s):  
Nur Isnaini Parihah ◽  
Sari Hartini ◽  
Juarni Siregar
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Naive Bayes ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Naïve Bayes ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Testing Data ◽  
Bayes Algorithm ◽  
Infant Birth

The birth rate is something that can affect the increase in population growth. Large population is a burden for development. According to Malthus's Theory which states that a large population growth is not the welfare that is obtained but rather poverty will be encountered if the population is not well controlled. The number of baby births in Tridaya Sakti Village is increasing every year. Therefore Data Mining using the Naive Bayes algorithm can help in the calculation of predicting infant birth rates in Tridaya Sakti Village. Data Mining in predicting the number of infant birth rates aims to determine the number of infant birth rates for the coming year using the Naive Bayes algorithm. By looking at the prediction patterns of each variable and testing training data on testing data. It is hoped that the Naive Bayes algorithm can solve the problem in Tridaya Sakti Village in handling and overcoming the calculation of infant birth rates and can help the Tridaya Sakti Village in regulating population growth in the coming years. The results obtained from the data that have been taken and calculated by Data Mining using the Naive Bayes algorithm produce an information that can be used as a reference to find out the number of births. Performance and time in data processing are more effective and efficient as well as more accurate and accurate predictions of the number of baby births.   Keywords: Naive Bayes, Birth of a Baby, Prediction   Abstrak   Angka kelahiran merupakan suatu hal yang dapat mempengaruhi peningkatan pertumbuhan penduduk. Jumlah penduduk yang besar merupakan beban bagi pembangunan. Menurut Teori Malthus yang menyatakan bahwa pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk yang besar bukanlah kesejahteraan yang didapat tapi justru kemelaratan akan ditemui bilamana jumlah penduduk tidak dikendalikan dengan baik. Jumlah angka kelahiran bayi di Desa Tridaya Sakti setiap tahunnya semakin bertambah. Maka dari itu Data Mining dengan menggunakan algoritman Naive Bayes dapat membantu dalam perhitungan memprediksi angka kelahiran bayi di Desa Tridaya Sakti. Data Mining dalam memprediksi jumlah angka kelahiran bayi bertujuan untuk mengetahui jumlah angka kelahiran bayi tahun yang akan mendatang mengunakan algoritma Naive Bayes. Dengan melihat pola prediksi dari setiap variabel dan melakukan pengujian data training terhadap data testing. Diharapkan algoritma Naive Bayes ini dapat menyelesaikan permasalahan di Desa Tridaya Sakti dalam menangani dan mengatasi perhitungan angka kelahiran bayi dan dapat membantu pihak Desa Tridaya Sakti dalam mengatur pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk tahun yang akan mendatang. Hasil yang diperoleh dari data yang sudah diambil dan dihitung dengan Data Mining mengunakan algoritam Naive Bayes menghasilkan sebuah informasi yang dapat digunakan sebagai acuan untuk mengetahui jumlah angka kelahiran bayi. Kinerja dan waktu dalam proses pengolahan data lebih efektif dan efesien serta dari prediksi jumlah kelahiran bayi lebih tepat dan akurat. Kata Kunci: Naive Bayes, Kelahiran Bayi, Prediks  

scholarly journals Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Dumont
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Surface Area ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Agricultural Efficiency ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wilderness Areas ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

scholarly journals Vasectomies of male African elephants as a population management tool: A case study

Bothalia ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heike R. Zitzer ◽  
Victoria L. Boult
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Hormonal Contraceptives ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Lethal Control ◽  
Elephant Population

Elephant populations in South Africa are largely confined to fenced reserves and therefore require continued management to prevent high elephant densities that may cause habitat degradation. Growing human populations surrounding these reserves limit the possibility for wildlife range expansion, adding socio-economic considerations to the growing list of challenges reserve managers must contend with. Often, reserves have therefore opted to manage elephant population growth using various contraceptive methods to reduce birth rates, with lethal control acting as a last resort.Reserve owners at the Pongola Game Reserve South in northern KwaZulu-Natal opted to vasectomise the oldest male elephants to limit elephant population growth. Besides the reduction in birth rates, vasectomies were anticipated to have minimal impacts on behaviour. This study aimed to examine behavioural implications of treatment by monitoring musth, dominance and social behaviours of vasectomised males.Physical and behavioural observations of vasectomised males were recorded using instantaneous scan sampling and continuous focal samples of study individuals between 2011 and 2016. These data were also collected for non-treated adolescent males, with which to substantiate potential impacts of vasectomies.This case study has revealed that the behaviour of the vasectomised males was not influenced by vasectomies: musth was displayed as anticipated in the oldest males; a linear dominance hierarchy was maintained, headed by the oldest individual, and association patterns with female groups remained intact. Further, the younger non-treated males fell in line with the overall dominance hierarchy.This unique post-treatment study supports the use of vasectomies as a relatively cost-effective (one-off treatment), low-risk and successful tool for the management of elephant population growth, and an option which is preferable to both lethal control and hormonal contraceptives. Further research to establish the impacts of vasectomies on female behaviour and population dynamics is recommended.

scholarly journals Least developed countries – comparison

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (No. 3) ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
V. Jeníček ◽  
Š. Grófová
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Limited Access

The inter-related causes of food insecurity in these countries are mainly the long lasting civil wars, a limited access to land, environmental degradation, climatic shocks and the rapid population growth resulting from the high birth rates and the return of refugees.    

scholarly journals Introduction and overview

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Original Formulation ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Closed Populations

Since its original formulation in the 1940s (Davis 1945; Notestein 1945), the phenomenon known as ‘the global demographic transition’ has been used to understand the trend of structural population ageing, and with it, the slowing and ultimately the ending of population growth – now anticipated globally around the end of the present century (Lutz, Sanderson & Sherbov 2004). However as originally conceptualised, the theory pertained to ‘closed’ populations, in which the only dynamics were births and deaths. Falling death rates cause populations to first become younger and to grow in size, while falling birth rates eventually cause them to become older, and growth to slow – the increased numbers of survivors at older ages becoming an increased proportion of the population (Coale 1972; Chesnais 1990).

Demography

1949 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
pp. 121-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elfryn Jones
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Range Of Variation ◽  
Considerable Complexity ◽  
Methods Of Measurement ◽  
Future Population

The study of methods of measurement of the rate of population growth is one of the most fundamental aspects of demographic science and one which, from its nature, should be of particular interest to the actuarial profession. It is therefore fitting that this paper should be devoted to a discussion of this side of the subject, particularly in view of the importance which the analysis of population trends has assumed in modern times as the result of the decline in birth-rates experienced by this country in common with most of the leading civilized nations.Leaving out of account losses and gains by migration, the future development of a given population is determined by the numbers of children that people have, the proportions of these who survive and the sizes of the families which they have in their turn, the cycle continuing indefinitely. Whilst the consequences of changes in mortality must not be underestimated it is clearly the wide possible range of variation in birth-rates which plays by far the more important part in shaping future population trends. The measurement of population growth therefore rests largely on the analysis of fertility, a subject of considerable complexity.

The Birth Rate Decline in Developing Countries

1993 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryant Robey
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
World Population ◽  
Childbearing Age ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
The Look

Birth rates are falling in much of the developing world. In the mid-1960s women in Asia, Africa and Latin America gave birth to an average of six children. Today, the average is about four—a drop of one-third. In some regions and countries the average is substantially lower, approaching levels in the developed world. This remarkable decline in birth rates is no cause for complacency about rapid population growth, however, as the Look at it this way article in this issue, by Catley-Carlson, rightly observes. Average family size is still well above the 2.1 ‘replacement level ’—the number of children per couple that over the long run leads to zero population growth because each couple has only enough children to replace itself in the population. Thus world population, already about 5.5 billion, continues to grow. Even as the average number of children born per woman falls, population will continue to grow rapidly for many years because the number of women of childbearing age is rising as a result of previous high birth rates—a phenomenon that demographers call ‘population momentum ’. That the world's population is growing larger in a hurry is not news. But it is something of a surprise to learn that birth rates have declined so rapidly in so many countries, including some that experts considered too poor and traditional for this to occur. In fact, birth rates have fallen much faster than experts expected. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and similar family planning surveys conducted in more than 40 developing countries since 1985 tell the story of this striking decline.

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