Impact of climate change scenarios on Canadian agroclimatic indices

2013 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Budong Qian ◽  
Reinder De Jong ◽  
Sam Gameda ◽  
Ted Huffman ◽  
Denise Neilsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Heat Accumulation ◽  
Cool Season

Qian, B., De Jong, R., Gameda, S., Huffman, T., Neilsen, D., Desjardins, R., Wang, H. and McConkey, B. 2013. Impact of climate change scenarios on Canadian agroclimatic indices. Can. J. Soil Sci. 93: 243–259. The Canadian agricultural sector is facing the impacts of climate change. Future scenarios of agroclimatic change provide information for assessing climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies. The goal of this study was to derive and compare agroclimatic indices based on current and projected future climate scenarios and to discuss the potential implications of climate change impacts on agricultural production and adaptation strategies in Canada. Downscaled daily climate scenarios, including maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for a future time period, 2040–2069, were generated using the stochastic weather generator AAFC-WG for Canadian agricultural regions on a 0.5°×0.5° grid. Multiple climate scenarios were developed, based on the results of climate change simulations conducted using two global climate models – CGCM3 and HadGEM1 – forced by IPCC SRES greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, as well as two regional climate models forced by the A2 emission scenario. The agroclimatic indices that estimate growing season start, end and length, as well as heat accumulations and moisture conditions during the growing season for three types of field crops, cool season, warm season and over-wintering crops, were used to represent agroclimatic conditions. Compared with the baseline period 1961–1990, growing seasons were projected to start earlier, on average 13 d earlier for cool season and over-wintering crops and 11 d earlier for warm season crops. The end of the growing season was projected on average to be 10 and 13 d later for over-wintering and warm season crops, respectively, but 11 d earlier for cool season crops because of the projected high summer temperatures. Two indices quantifying the heat accumulation during the growing season, effective growing degree days (EGDD) and crop heat units (CHU) indicated a notable increase in heat accumulation: on average, EGDD increased by 15, 55 and 34% for cool season, warm season and over-wintering crops, respectively. The magnitudes of the projected changes were highly dependent on the climate models, as well as on the GHG emission scenarios. Some contradictory projections were observed for moisture conditions based on precipitation deficit accumulated over the growing season. This confirmed that the uncertainties in climate projections were large, especially those related to precipitation, and such uncertainties should be taken into account in decision making when adaptation strategies are developed. Nevertheless, the projected changes in indices related to temperature were fairly consistent.

scholarly journals A Projection of Extreme Precipitation Based on a Selection of CMIP5 GCMs over North Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jang Sung ◽  
Minsung Kwon ◽  
Jong-June Jeon ◽  
Seung Seo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Gcms ◽  
Selection Of

The numerous choices between climate change scenarios makes decision-making difficult for the assessment of climate change impacts. Previous studies have used climate models to compare performance in terms of simulating observed climates or preserving model variability among scenarios. In this study, the Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang algorithm was applied to select representative climate change scenarios (RCCS) that preserve the variability among all climate change scenarios (CCS). The performance of multi-model ensemble of RCCS was evaluated for reference and future climates. It was found that RCCS was well suited for observations and multi model ensemble of all CCS. Using the RCCS under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, the future extreme precipitation was projected. As a result, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation increased towards the farther future. Especially, extreme precipitation (daily maximum precipitation of 20-year return-period) during 2070-2099, was projected to occur once every 8.3-year. The RCCS employed in this study is able to successfully represent the performance of all CCS, therefore, this approach can give opportunities managing water resources efficiently for assessment of climate change impacts.

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT

2003 ◽  
Vol 84 (12) ◽  
pp. 1711-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. MacCracken ◽  
Eric J. Barron ◽  
David R. Easterling ◽  
Benjamin S. Felzer ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
National Assessment ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The U.S

In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes projected for the twenty-first century. Since publication of the results of the assessment at the end of 2000, the National Research Council's report Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, and the U.S. government's U.S. Climate Action Report—2002 have both relied on the assessment's findings. Because of the importance of these findings, it is important to directly address questions regarding the representativeness and usefulness of the model-based projections on which the findings were based. In particular, criticisms have focused on whether the climate models that were relied upon adequately represented twentieth-century conditions and whether their projections of conditions for the twenty-first century were outliers. Reexamination of the approach used in developing and evaluating the climate scenarios indicates that the results from the two primary climate modeling groups that were relied upon allowed the generation of climate scenarios that span much of the range of possible future climatic conditions projected by the larger set of model simulations, which was compiled for the IPCCs Third Assessment Report. With the set of models showing increasing agreement in their simulations of twentieth-century trends in climate and of projected changes in climate on subcontinental to continental scales, the climate scenarios that were generated seem likely to provide a plausible representation of the types of climatic conditions that could be experienced during the twenty-first century. Warming, reduced snow cover, and more intense heavy precipitation events were projected by all models, suggesting such changes are quite likely. However, significant differences remain in the projection of changes in precipitation and of the regional departures in climate from the larger-scale patterns. For this reason, evaluating potential impacts using climate scenarios based on models exhibiting different regional responses is a necessary step to ensuring a representative analysis. Utilizing an even more encompassing set of scenarios in the future could help move from mainly qualitative toward more certain and quantitative conclusions.

Partnerships to Visualize Climate Change Futures in Tampa Bay, Florida

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Rebecca K. Zarger ◽  
Gina Larsen ◽  
Alexis Winter ◽  
Libby Carnahan ◽  
Ramona Madhosingh-Hector ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extension Agents ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Public

Abstract Our project investigates public perceptions of climate change risk and vulnerability in the Tampa Bay, Florida, region, specifically focused on how climate change is likely to impact water infrastructure in the area. As part of the project, our research team of anthropologists and environmentally-focused state extension agents collaboratively developed public workshops to promote more dialogue on local climate change impacts. The anthropologists developed localized climate change scenarios based on global climate models, Florida-centric models, and input from key informants. Extension agents brought expertise in climate and sustainability science and facilitating educational programming and dialogue. We documented residents' concerns and views on climate change, how local scenarios are received by the public, and how scenarios can be communicated to the public through narrative and visual formats. We consider the roles of anthropologist-extension agent partnerships in creating new spaces for dialogue on climate change futures.

scholarly journals Aptidão climática da mangueira frente ao clima atual e aos cenários futuros (Climatic aptitude for mango crop under actual and future climate scenarios)

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magna Soelma Beserra de Moura ◽  
Leide Dayane da Silva Oliveira ◽  
Sílvio Roberto Medeiros Evangelista ◽  
Maria Aparecida do Carmo Mouco ◽  
Luciana Sandra Bastos de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mangifera Indica ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a aptidão climática para a cultura da manga para o clima atual e cenários futuros do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas) no Brasil. As condições climáticas ideais para a cultura da manga utilizados neste estudo foram padronizadas para o Brasil de acordo com documentos Zoneamento de Riscos Climáticos Agrícola. Para o zoneamento futuro da manga foram utilizados os dados de temperatura do ar e precipitação gerar por PRECIS e modelos ETA-CPTEC para os cenários de altas e baixas emissões de dióxido de carbono do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas), para as condições atuais (de base), 2025 e 2055. Foi utilizado sistema de informação geográfica para elaborar os mapas e tabelas. Os resultados indicam que pode haver reduções nas áreas apropriadas para o cultivo de manga no Brasil, considerando-se os modelos climáticos gerados pelo ETA e PRECIS. Assim, o manejo da cultura da manga deve ser adaptado para tornar possível obter produção satisfatória em cenários de baixa disponibilidade hídrica e aumento da temperatura. This work aimed to analyze the climatic aptitude for mango crop to the current climate and future IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in Brazil. The optimal climatic conditions for mango crop used in this study were standardized for Brazil according to Agricultural Zoning Climate Risk documents. For the future mango zoning was used the data of air temperature and precipitation generate by PRECIS and ETA-CPTEC models in concern to scenarios of high and low emissions of carbon dioxide of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), for current conditions (Baseline), 2025 and 2055. It was used geographic information systems to elaborate the maps and tables. The results indicate that there may be reductions in the areas suitable for the cultivation of mango in Brazil, considering the climate models generated by ETA and PRECIS. Thus, the mango crop management should be adapted to make possible obtain satisfactory production under scenarios of lower water availability and increased temperature. Keywords: Mangifera indica L., climate change, agroclimatic zoning.   

scholarly journals A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 3533-3572 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Heinke ◽  
S. Ostberg ◽  
S. Schaphoff ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
C. Müller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

scholarly journals Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1207-1226 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Hingray ◽  
N. Mouhous ◽  
A. Mezghani ◽  
K. Bogner ◽  
B. Schaefli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Potential Climate Change

Abstract. A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of several key meteorological variables obtained from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections drawn in a probability distribution of future global-mean warming. The resulting climate change scenarios are used to drive a hydrological and a water management model to analyse the potential climate change impacts on a water resources system. This methodology enables a joint quantification of the climate change impact uncertainty induced by the global-mean warming scenarios and the regional climate response. It is applied to a case study in Switzerland, a water resources system formed by three interconnected lakes located in the Jura Mountains. The system behaviour is simulated for a control period (1961–1990) and a future period (2070–2099). The potential climate change impacts are assessed through a set of impact indices related to different fields of interest (hydrology, agriculture and ecology). The results obtained show that future climate conditions will have a significant influence on the performance of the system and that the uncertainty induced by the inter-RCM variability will contribute to much of the uncertainty of the prediction of the total impact. These CSRs cover the area considered in the 2001–2004 EU funded project SWURVE.

scholarly journals Climate change and hydrological extremes in Belgian catchments

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5033-5078 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Baguis ◽  
E. Roulin ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
V. Ntegeka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Current Century

Abstract. In this study we focus our attention on the climate change impacts on the hydrological balance in Belgium. There are two main rivers in the country, the Scheldt and the Meuse, supplied with water almost exclusively by precipitation. With the climate change projected by climate models for the end of the current century, one would expect that the hydrological regime of the rivers may be affected mainly through the changes in precipitation patterns and the increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to increased temperature throughout the year. We examine the hydrology of two important tributaries of the rivers Scheldt and Meuse, the Gete and the Ourthe, respectively. Our analysis is based on simulations with the SCHEME hydrological model and on climate change data from the European PRUDENCE project. Two emission scenarios are considered, the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, and the perturbation (or delta) method is used in order to assess the climate change signal at monthly time scale and provide appropriate input time series for the hydrological simulations. The ensemble of climate change scenarios used allows us to estimate the combined model and scenario uncertainty in the streamflow calculations, inherent to this kind of analysis. In this context, we also analyze extreme river flows using two probability distribution families, allowing us to quantify the shift of the extremes under climate change conditions.

A Weather Generator-Based Statistical Downscaling Tool for Site-Specific Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 977-993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Chen ◽  
Xunchang John Zhang ◽  
Xiangquan Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Widespread Application ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Downscaling Method

Abstract. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge the gap between climate model outputs and data requirements of impact models such as crop and soil erosion models. This study synthesizes, integrates, and standardizes a statistical downscaling method that was initially developed in 2005 and subsequently evaluated and improved during the last decade. A new downscaling software program, Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC), has been developed to automate and visualize the method to assist end users with detailed technical and user documentation. GPCC readily generates daily time series of climate change scenarios for local and site-specific climate change impact studies using monthly projections from global climate models or regional climate models. The downscaled variables include precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures. This software provides a simple but effective climate downscaling tool for assessing the impacts of climate change on crop production, soil hydrology, and soil erosion at a field scale. The tool can also provide an alternative downscaling method to facilitate the international collaborative efforts of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for simulation of world food production and food security assessment. The detailed downscaling methods, their scientific bases, and the advantages of GPCC over other commonly used downscaling methods are presented. GPCC is written in the Matlab language, and a standalone version can be run on Windows XP or above without Matlab software. The tool has a graphical user interface that is simple and easy to generate downscaled climates as well as to visualize downscaled outputs. Each interface tab and key button and their functions are described to facilitate its widespread application. Keywords: Agricultural system models, Climate change impacts, Generator for point climate change, Interface, Statistical downscaling, Stochastic weather generator.

scholarly journals MODELLING SHORELINE EVOLUTION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Anna Zacharioudaki ◽  
Dominic E Reeve
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Shoreline Evolution ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Site

In this paper we examine the evidence for detectable climate change impacts on shoreline evolution. In a sequentially linked set of models, climate change scenarios are taken from atmospheric climate models and used to generate time slices of deepwater wave climate, nearshore wave climate and shoreline evolution. The models used are simple, containing the key physical processes only. Results are based on a hypothetical case which has some similarities to a site on the south coast of the UK. Output from the model is analysed using a robust statistical methodology to determine the evidence for statistically significant differences between beach behaviour under current conditions and several future scenarios. Statistically significant differences vary with season and also with the combination of climate model outputs used for input. Summers are the only season for which all models showed significant changes, corresponding to an increase in the net eastward littoral transport.

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