scholarly journals Testing the forecast of aftershocks: a simple method with an example of application

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Changsheng Jiang ◽  
Zhongliang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Test Scheme ◽  
Response Ratio ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Error Diagram

Tests of aftershock forecast have to consider the temporal distribution of aftershocks, which differ from mainshocks. This paper uses as an example the 2008 Wenchuan aftershock sequence and the load-unload response ratio forecast of aftershocks. We discuss a simplified test scheme using the Ogata-transformed time to make the transformed aftershock sequence homogenously random. While an example was taken using the Molchan error diagram, other testing schemes are also valid for the transformed aftershock sequence.

The influence of fluids in the unusually high-rate seismicity in the Ometepec segment of the Mexican subduction zone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Legrand ◽  
A Iglesias ◽  
S K Singh ◽  
V Cruz-Atienza ◽  
C Yoon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Earth Tides ◽  
P Value ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Flow Measurements ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Mexican Subduction Zone

Summary The rate of earthquakes with magnitudes Mw ≤ 7.5 in the Ometepec segment of the Mexican subduction zone is relatively high as compared to the neighboring regions of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Although the reason is not well understood, it has been reported that these earthquakes give rise to a large number of aftershocks. Our study of the aftershock sequence of the 2012 Mw7.4 Ometepec thrust earthquake suggests that it is most likely due to two dominant factors: (1) The presence of an anomalously high quantity of over-pressured fluids near the plate interface, and (2) the roughness of the plate interface. More than 5,400 aftershocks were manually detected during the first ten days following the 2012 earthquake. Locations were obtained for 2,419 events (with duration magnitudes Md ≥ 1.5). This is clearly an unusually high number of aftershocks for an earthquake of this magnitude. Furthermore, we generated a more complete catalog, using an unsupervised fingerprint technique, to detect more smaller events (15,593 within one month following the mainshock). For this catalog, a high b-value of 1.50 ± 0.10 suggests the presence of fluid release during the aftershock sequence. A low p-value (0.37 ± 0.12) of the Omori law reveals a slow decaying aftershock sequence. The temporal-distribution of aftershocks shows peaks of activity with two dominant periods of 12h and 24h that correlate with the Earth tides. To explain these observations, we suggest that the 2012 aftershock sequence is associated with the presence of over-pressured fluids and/or a heterogeneous and irregular plate interface related to the subduction of the neighboring seamounts. High fluid content has independently been inferred by magneto-telluric surveys and deduced from heat flow measurements in the region. The presence of fluids in the region has also been proposed to explain the occurrence of slow slip events, low frequency earthquakes, and tectonic tremors.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of the 2011 Earthquakes in Lake Van Area and Rupture Complexity of the Aftershock Sequence in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Toker
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Focal Depth ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽  
Upper Crust ◽  
Lake Van ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Central Cluster ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

This study presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the two large destructive earthquakes that occurred in Lake Van area on October 23, and November 9, 2011, together with the azimuth-dependent distribution of the seismic activity and microseismicity clusters after the mainshocks, associated with the complex rupture processes of their aftershock sequence. The sequence began with the magnitude Mw 7.1 earthquake of 23 October and a second destructive earthquake of Mw 5.6. The aftershock sequences of the two mainshocks were linked to the local crustal faults beneath Lake Van area, followed successively and produced unusually intense activity and significant damage in the area. The main purposes of this study are to document the spatial and temporal distribution and evolution of the October 23, 2011 aftershock hypocenters and the azimuth-dependent distribution of seismic activity, and to understand the spatial and temporal character of the aftershock sequence using the distributional and evolutional patterns of the aftershock hypocenters. A total of 10,000 aftershocks were obtained from seismic data with a high signal-to-noise ratio over collected over three years from October 23, 2011 to March 2014. These aftershocks were plotted for the time periods from November 2011 through March 2012 to March 2014 and ≈ 5000 aftershocks were retained in the depth versus distance cross-sections to detect the clusters in the first step of study (November 2011–March 2012). The focal depth distribution of the aftershock clusters, the migration of hypocenter activity and microseismicity clusters were analyzed and the distributional patterns of the detected clusters were assessed using the geometric distribution of the aftershock hypocenters. The spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks reveal interesting key features of the deep rupture complexity of the Van earthquake: (1) most prominent aftershocks have been located in the upper crust at depths shallower than 10 km beneath ruptured area, indicating that the upper crust is brittle and seismogenic; (2) two spatial clusters have been detected at 8-10 km depths and the upward extrapolation of these clusters intersects with faults; the main cluster (60 km wide) bounded by inferred reverse faults (f3 and f4) and the central cluster (25–30 km wide) bounded by faults (f1 and f2); (3) these spatial clusters form the largest volumetric pattern of the conical-shaped cluster at depths of about 25–30 km of the azimuth-dependent rotational projections, suggesting azimuthal distributions of deep rupture characteristics; and (4) the strongest temporal cluster of microseismicity derived from temporal distribution of aftershocks has been detected within an area of about 2.5–3.0 km2 and it is spatially observed at 20 km depth within the central cluster, suggesting progressive failure of the adjacent patches of possible fault.

scholarly journals SEISMICITY CHANGES DETECTION DURING THE SEISMIC SEQUENCES EVOLUTION AS EVIDENCE OF STRESS CHANGES

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 1994
Author(s):  
A.C. Astiopoulos ◽  
E. Papadimitriou ◽  
V. Karakostas ◽  
D. Gospodinov ◽  
G. Drakatos
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Seismic Sequences ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Lefkada Island ◽  
Seismicity Rate Changes

The statistical properties of the aftershock occurrence are among the main issues in investigating the earthquake generation process. Seismicity rate changes during a seismic sequence, which are detected by the application of statistical models, are proved to be precursors of strong events occurring during the seismic excitation. Application of these models provides a tool in assessing the imminent seismic hazard, oftentimes by the estimation of the expected occurrence rate and comparison of the predicted rate with the observed one. The aim of this study is to examine the temporal distribution and especially the occurrence rate variations of aftershocks for two seismic sequences that took place, the first one near Skyros island in 2001 and the second one near Lefkada island in 2003, in order to detect and determine rate changes in connection with the evolution of the seismic activity. Analysis is performed through space–time stochastic models which are developed, based upon both aftershocks clustering studies and specific assumptions. The models applied are the Modified Omori Formula (MOF), the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) and the Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS). The modelling of seismicity rate changes, during the evolution of the particular seismic sequences, is then attempted in association with and as evidence of static stress changes

scholarly journals A study of aftershocks of 20 October 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-444
Author(s):  
R S. DATTATRAYAM ◽  
V.P. KAMBLE
Keyword(s):  
Decay Constant ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Macroseismic Observations ◽  
Good Agreement

The Uttarkashi earthquake of 20 October 1991, which caused widespread damage in the Galhwal Himalayan region, was followed by a prominent aftershock. activity extending over a period of about two months. The aftershock activity was monitored using temporary networks established after the mainshock and the permanent stations in operation in the region. About 142 aftershocks could be located accurately using the data of these stations. The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter's relationship for the aftershock sequence works out to be 0.6. The temporal distribution of the aftershocks suggests a hyperbolic decay with a decay constant (p) of 1.17. Macroseismic observations derived from field surveys show good agreement with the instrumentally determined source parameters.  

scholarly journals Distributed mass-balance modelling on two neighbouring glaciers in Ortles-Cevedale, Italy, from 2004 to 2009

2012 ◽  
Vol 58 (209) ◽  
pp. 467-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Carturan ◽  
Federico Cazorzi ◽  
Giancarlo Dalla Fontana
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Temperature Index ◽  
Multiplicative Algorithm ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Simulation Errors

AbstractA 6 year application of an enhanced temperature-index mass-balance model to Careser and La Mare glaciers, Eastern Italian Alps, is presented. The two glaciers exhibit very different characteristics, and a comprehensive dataset of distributed mass-balance measurements was used to test the model performance. The model was run using meteorological data acquired outside the glaciers. The work was focused on two main aspects: (1) the development of a morphological redistribution procedure for snow, and (2) the comparison of three different melt algorithms proposed in the literature. The results show that the simple method proposed for snow redistribution can greatly improve simulation of winter balance, and further improvements would be achievable by collecting data on inaccessible and high-altitude areas. All three melt formulations displayed a good skill level and very similar results in modelling the mass-balance distribution over glacier areas, with slightly better results from a multiplicative algorithm in capturing the vertical balance gradient. The simulation errors are related to aspect and elevation, and tend to be spatially aggregated. Some assumptions concerning the spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature and incoming solar radiation, although reasonable and widely used in the literature, may be responsible for this aggregation. Hence, there is a need to further investigate the processes that regulate the distribution of melt energy, and that appear to control the current deglaciation phase in this area.

What Governs the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Aftershocks in Mining-Induced Seismicity: Insight into the Influence of Coseismic Static Stress Changes on Seismicity in Kiruna Mine, Sweden

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Kozłowska ◽  
Beata Orlecka-Sikora ◽  
Savka Dineva ◽  
Łukasz Rudziński ◽  
Mirjana Boskovic
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
State Model ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Good Tool ◽  
Coulomb Stress Changes ◽  
Mining Induced Seismicity ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Natural Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Strong mining-induced earthquakes are often followed by aftershocks, similar to natural earthquakes. Although the magnitudes of such in-mine aftershocks are not high, they may pose a threat to mining infrastructure, production, and primarily, people working underground. The existing post-earthquake mining procedures usually do not consider any aspects of the physics of the mainshock. This work aims to estimate the rate and distribution of aftershocks following mining-induced seismic events by applying the rate-and-state model of fault friction, which is commonly used in natural earthquake studies. It was found that both the pre-mainshock level of seismicity and the coseismic stress change following the mainshock rupture have strong effects on the aftershock sequence. For mining-induced seismicity, however, we need to additionally account for the constantly changing stress state caused by the ongoing exploitation. Here, we attempt to model the aftershock sequence, its rate, and distribution of two M≈2 events in iron ore Kiruna mine, Sweden. We could appropriately estimate the aftershock sequence for one of the events because both the modeled rate and distribution of aftershocks matched the observed activity; however, the model underestimated the rate of aftershocks for the other event. The results of modeling showed that aftershocks following mining events occur in the areas of pre-mainshock activity influenced by the positive coulomb stress changes, according to the model’s assumptions. However, we also noted that some additional process not incorporated in the rate-and-state model may influence the aftershock sequence. Nevertheless, this type of modeling is a good tool for evaluating the risk areas in mines following a strong seismic event.

scholarly journals Temporal characteristics of some aftershock sequences in Bulgaria

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Simeonova ◽  
D. Solakov
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Secondary Aftershock ◽  
Foreshock Activity

We apply statistical analysis to study the temporal distribution of aftershocks in aftershock sequences of five earthquakes which occurred in Bulgaria. We use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the modified Omori formula for aftershock sequences which is directly based on a time series. We find that: the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameter p show a regional variation, with lower values of the decay rate in North Bulgaria; the modified Omori formula provides an appropriate representation of temporal variation of the aftershock activity in North Bulgaria; the aftershock sequences in South Bulgaria are best modeled by the combination of an ordinary aftershock sequence with secondary aftershock activity. A plot of the cumulative number of events versus the frequency-linearized time t clearly demonstrates a transition from aftershock to foreshock activity prior to the second 1986 Strazhitsa (North Bulgaria) earthquake.

A simple way for producing holographic filters suitable for image improvement

1978 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 226-227
Author(s):  
K.-H. Herrmann ◽  
E. Reuber ◽  
P. Schiske
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Diffraction Order ◽  
Lateral Position ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Spatial Frequencies ◽  
Resolution Electron ◽  
Wiener Filters ◽  
Image Improvement ◽  
Optical Reconstruction ◽  
Set Up

Aposteriori deblurring of high resolution electron micrographs of weak phase objects can be performed by holographic filters [1,2] which are arranged in the Fourier domain of a light-optical reconstruction set-up. According to the diffraction efficiency and the lateral position of the grating structure, the filters permit adjustment of the amplitudes and phases of the spatial frequencies in the image which is obtained in the first diffraction order.In the case of bright field imaging with axial illumination, the Contrast Transfer Functions (CTF) are oscillating, but real. For different imageforming conditions and several signal-to-noise ratios an extensive set of Wiener-filters should be available. A simple method of producing such filters by only photographic and mechanical means will be described here.A transparent master grating with 6.25 lines/mm and 160 mm diameter was produced by a high precision computer plotter. It is photographed through a rotating mask, plotted by a standard plotter.

Rotary Beveling for In Situ Thin-Section Microscopy of Cell Cultures

1981 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 550-551
Author(s):  
Dean A. Handley ◽  
Jack T. Alexander ◽  
Shu Chien
Keyword(s):  
Cell Growth ◽  
Cell Cultures ◽  
Molecular Interactions ◽  
Convenient Method ◽  
Petri Dish ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Thin Section Microscopy ◽  
Thin Sectioning ◽  
Organic Fluids

In situ preparation of cell cultures for ultrastructural investigations is a convenient method by which fixation, dehydration and embedment are carried out in the culture petri dish. The in situ method offers the advantage of preserving the native orientation of cell-cell interactions, junctional regions and overlapping configurations. In order to section after embedment, the petri dish is usually separated from the polymerized resin by either differential cryo-contraction or solvation in organic fluids. The remaining resin block must be re-embedded before sectioning. Although removal of the petri dish may not disrupt the native cellular geometry, it does sacrifice what is now recognized as an important characteristic of cell growth: cell-substratum molecular interactions. To preserve the topographic cell-substratum relationship, we developed a simple method of tapered rotary beveling to reduce the petri dish thickness to a dimension suitable for direct thin sectioning.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document