scholarly journals Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla Dibari ◽  
Giovanni Argenti ◽  
Francesco Catolfi ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Nicolina Staglianò ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Land Cover Map ◽  
Gis Environment ◽  
Sres Scenarios

This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080) under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month) and response variables (presence/absence of pastures) to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%). Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46%) and B2 (–41%) along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively) and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios) by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the traditional grazing practices, will likely threat grassland biodiversity as well as pastoral potential distribution currently dominating the Apennines chain.

Reevaluation of Design Waves Off the Western Indian Coast Considering Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pentapati Satyavathi ◽  
Makarand C. Deo ◽  
Jyoti Kerkar ◽  
Ponnumony Vethamony
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wave Data

AbstractKnowledge of design waves with long return periods forms an essential input to many engineering applications, including structural design and analysis. Such extreme or long-term waves are conventionally evaluated using observed or hindcast historical wave data. Globally, waves are expected to undergo future changes in magnitude and behavior as a result of climate change induced by global warming. Considering future climate change, this study attempts to reevaluate significant wave height (Hs) as well as average spectral wave period (Tz) with a return period of 100 years for a series of locations along the western Indian coastline. Historical waves are simulated using a numerical wave model forced by wind data extracted from the archives of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, while future wave data are generated by a state-of-the-art Canadian general circulation model. A statistical extreme value analysis of past and projected wave data carried out with the help of the generalized Pareto distribution showed an increase in 100-year Hs and Tz along the Indian coastline, pointing out the necessity to reconsider the safety of offshore structures in the light of global warming.

scholarly journals Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%–18% and 7.0%–22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 °C–3.3 °C and 4.2 °C–5.5 °C and the streamflow will change by −26% to 3.4% and −38% to −7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1–2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).

Linkage between Biodiversity, Land Use Informatics and Climate Change

2011 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Yongyut Trisurat ◽  
Rajendra P. Shrestha ◽  
Rob Alkemade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Living Organisms

Biodiversity is the variety and variability among living organisms and ecological complexes in which they occur, and it can be divided into three levels – gene, species and ecosystems. Biodiversity is an essential component of human development and security in terms of proving ecosystem services, but also it is important for its own right to exist in the globe. Failure to conserve and use biological diversity in a sustainable manner would result in degrading environments, new and more rampant illnesses, deepening poverty and a continued pattern of inequitable and untenable growth. This chapter provides a coherent presentation of the essential concepts, key terminology, historical background of biodiversity, and drivers to biodiversity loss, especially land use/land cover and climate change. A number of land use change models and a general circulation model for prediction of future climate change and its effects on individuals, populations, species, and ecosystems are briefly described. The chapter also introduces the structure of the book including summaries of each chapter.

scholarly journals Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Rouhani ◽  
Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Scale

Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.

Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for maize cultivation in the Himalayan foothills of India

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 596-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem ◽  
Mukand S. Babel ◽  
Sang Thi Chu ◽  
Biplab Chakma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
The Future

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize (Zea mays) yield and evaluates different agro-adaptation measures to counteract its negative impacts at Sikkim, a Himalayan state of India. Future climate scenarios for the 10 years centered on 2025, 2055 and 2085 were obtained by downscaling the outputs of the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) under for A2 and B2 emission scenarios. HadCM3 was chosen after assessing the performance analysis of six GCMs for the study region. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise in the future and precipitation is projected to decrease (by 1.7 to 22.6% relative to the 1991–2000 baseline) depending on the time period and scenarios considered. The crop simulation model CERES-Maize was then used to simulate maize yield under future climate change for the future time windows. Simulation results show that climate change could reduce maize productivity by 10.7–18.2%, compared to baseline yield, under A2 and 6.4–12.4% under B2 scenarios. However, the results also indicate that the projected decline in maize yield could be offset by early planting of seeds, lowering the farm yard manure application rate, introducing supplementary irrigation and shifting to heat tolerant varieties of maize.

The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future

2008 ◽  
Vol 367 (1886) ◽  
pp. 49-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J Lunt ◽  
Alan M Haywood ◽  
Gavin L Foster ◽  
Emma J Stone
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future

The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pliocene climate. Here, using a general circulation model and ice-sheet model, we determine the relative contribution of vegetation and soils, orography and ice, and CO 2 to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate and cryosphere. Compared with pre-industrial, we find that increased Mid-Pliocene CO 2 contributes 35 per cent, lower orography and ice-sheet feedbacks contribute 42 per cent, and vegetation changes contribute 23 per cent of Arctic temperature change. The simulated Mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheet is substantially smaller than that of modern, mostly due to the higher CO 2 . However, our simulations of future climate change indicate that the same increase in CO 2 is not sufficient to melt the modern ice sheet substantially. We conclude that, although the Mid-Pliocene resembles the future in some respects, care must be taken when interpreting it as an exact analogue due to vegetation and ice-sheet feedbacks. These act to intensify Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate change, and act on a longer time scale than the century scale usually addressed in future climate prediction.

scholarly journals Interannual variation, decadal trend, and future change in ozone outflow from East Asia

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Zhu ◽  
Hong Liao ◽  
Yuhao Mao ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Hui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Decadal Trend ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. We examine the past and future changes in O3 outflow from East Asia using a global three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. The simulations of Asian O3 outflow for 1986–2006 are driven by the assimilated GEOS-4 meteorological fields, and those for 2000–2050 are driven by the meteorological fields archived from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) 3 under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Sensitivity studies are conducted to examine the respective impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on the variations in the outflow flux of O3. When both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions varied during 1986–2006, the simulated Asian O3 outflow fluxes exhibited a small and statistically insignificant decadal trend of −2.2 % decade−1, but large interannual variations (IAVs) with seasonal absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) values of 4–9 % and annual APDM value of 3.3 %. Sensitivity simulations indicated that the large IAVs of O3 outflow fluxes were mainly caused by the variations in meteorological conditions. The simulations of the 2000–2050 changes show that the annual outflow flux of O3 will increase by 2.0 %, 7.9 %, and 12.2 %, respectively, owing to climate change alone, emissions change alone, and changes in both climate and emissions. Therefore, climate change will aggravate the effects of the increases in anthropogenic emissions on future changes in the Asian O3 outflow. Future climate change is predicted to greatly increase Asian O3 outflow in the spring and summer seasons as a result of the projected increases in zonal winds. Findings from the present study help to understand the variations in tropospheric O3 in the downwind regions of East Asia on different timescales, and have important implications for long-term air quality planning.

scholarly journals Incorporation of Long Term Climate Changes in Hydrological Modelling

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 4521-4526
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Statistical Relationships

One of climate change's most important concerns at the moment is its impact on hydrology as it has direct links with agriculture, vegetation, and livelihood. This study tries to analyze potential future climate change in the Kumaradhara river basin. This study involved three steps: (1) acquiring and using general circulation model (GCM) to project future global climate scenarios; (2) establishing statistical relationships between GCM data and observed data using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM); (3) downscaling the second generation Canadian Earth system Model (CanESM2)GCM output based on the established statistical relationship. The statistical downscaling is carried out for three scenarios used in the fifth evaluation report of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) viz., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The statistical downscaling Model (SDSM) results showed that the mean annual daily precipitation is altered in the basin under all the scenarios but it will be different in different time periods depending on scenarios and the basin will experience the reduced precipitation levels in summer. Also the precipitation will marginally rise in all the time slices with reference to baseline data. We can conclude from the results that this region's climate will affect future farming as the availability of water is bound to change. This study should, however, be followed up by a larger study incorporating multiple CMIP5 models such that changes in hydrological-regimes can be examined appropriately.

QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND YIELD IN THE CENTRAL REGION OF INDIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 83-89
Author(s):  
A. BALVANSHI ◽  
◽  
H. L. TIWARI ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Crop Evapotranspiration ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The present work focuses on estimation of future evapotranspiration of paddy, maize, soybean and assessment of yields of these crops under RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for years 1997-2099 using FAO Cropwat and AquaCrop yield simulating models for the Sehore district, in central state of India. Statistically downscaled General Circulation Model CanESM2 data were used as input to Cropwat and AquaCrop tools for generation of future crop evapotranspiration and crop yield data. The AquaCrop yield model was first checked for its suitability and accuracy in prediction of yield for years 1997-2010. The future scenario RCP 8.5 shows the highest reduction in the yield of paddy (-8.5%), maize (-4.52%), and soybean (-3.93%) during the future period. It was concluded that the FAO AquaCrop model can be applied to many other crops as well as in the other regions to formulate proper cropping strategies that will help to decrease the risks due to future climate change.

Recent climate variability and future climate change scenarios for

1998 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
D. Conway
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Sulphate Aerosols ◽  
Recent Climate

This article reviews recent climatically extreme periods in Great Britain and presents results from the latest general circulation model (GCM) experiments showing the possible spatial patterns and magnitude of future climate change for this region. During the last decade the British Isles has seen record-breaking periods of above-average temperatures, alongside periods with above and below-average precipitation, combined with an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation. The impacts of these anomalies, coupled with the possibility that future climate change may increase their frequency and/or severity, have prompted the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and Regions and other organizations involved in environmental management, such as the Environment Agency, to commission a number of studies into their impacts. These have highlighted wide-ranging impacts on the natural environment of Great Britain and on human ativities to the extent of affecting the national economy. The use of GCMs for the development of future climate change scenarios is reviewed. Results from recent ensemble GCM experiments with and without the effects of sulphate aerosols are presented. These show broadly similar changes in temperature and precipitation to previous climate change scenarios prepared for Great Britain. In summary, the scenarios suggest the following: a warming of about 3 8C (3.5 8C) over the region by 2100 with (without) the effects of sulphate aerosols; slight increases in annual precipitation over northern England and Scotland, more pronounced increases over the whole of the region in winter; and slight decreases in precipitation over Wales and central England in summer. These changes are synchronous with decreases in the number of wet-days and increases in the intensity of precipitation on wet-days. The high level of uncertainty associated with regional scenarios of temperature and precipitation is discussed and emphasized

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