scholarly journals Future climate change in the Mediterranean area: implications for water use and weed management

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella Lovelli ◽  
Michele Perniola ◽  
Emanuele Scalcione ◽  
Antonio Troccoli ◽  
Lewis H. Ziska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Weed Management ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Mediterranean

scholarly journals Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 4793-4813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungwoo Chang ◽  
Wendy Graham ◽  
Jeffrey Geurink ◽  
Nisai Wanakule ◽  
Tirusew Asefa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used to simulate current and future climate at the global scale. However, the development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems, ability to meet future water demand, and compliance with water resource regulations is more recent. In this study eight GCMs were bias-corrected and downscaled using the bias correction and stochastic analog (BCSA) downscaling method and then used, together with three ET0 methods and eight different water use scenarios, to drive an integrated hydrologic model previously developed for the Tampa Bay region in western central Florida. Variance-based sensitivity analysis showed that changes in projected streamflow were very sensitive to GCM selection, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method or water use scenario. Changes in projections of groundwater level were sensitive to both GCM and water use scenario, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method. Five of eight GCMs projected a decrease in streamflow and groundwater availability in the future regardless of water use scenario or ET method. For the business as usual water use scenario all eight GCMs indicated that, even with active water conservation programs, increases in public water demand projected for 2045 could not be met from ground and surface water supplies while achieving current groundwater level and surface water flow regulations. With adoption of 40 % wastewater reuse for public supply and active conservation four of the eight GCMs indicate that 2045 public water demand could be met while achieving current environmental regulations; however, drier climates would require a switch from groundwater to surface water use. These results indicate a high probability of a reduction in future freshwater supply in the Tampa Bay region if environmental regulations intended to protect current aquatic ecosystems do not adapt to the changing climate. Broad interpretation of the results of this study may be limited by the fact that all future water use scenarios assumed that increases in water demand would be the result of intensification of water use on existing agricultural, industrial, and urban lands. Future work should evaluate the impacts of a range of potential land use change scenarios, with associated water use change projections, over a larger number of GCMs.

scholarly journals Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1335-1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jarsjö ◽  
S. M. Asokan ◽  
C. Prieto ◽  
A. Bring ◽  
G. Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Loss ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Irrigation Practices

Abstract. This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3% of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Results show that errors in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) from single GCMs have large influence on projected change trends (for the period 2010–2039) of river runoff (R), even though the ASDB is spatially well resolved by current GCMs. By contrast, observed biases in GCM ensemble mean results have relatively small influence on projected R change trends. Ensemble mean results show that projected future climate change will considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future T change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices, which shows how climate change and water use change can interact in modifying ET (and R). With maintained irrigation practices, R is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50% higher T increase (of 2.3 °C instead of the projected 1.5 °C until 2010–2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

scholarly journals Evaluation of impact of climate change and anthropogenic change on regional hydrology

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungwoo Chang ◽  
Wendy Graham ◽  
Jeffrey Geurink ◽  
Nisai Wanakule ◽  
Tirusew Asefa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Levels

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used to simulate current and future climate at the global scale. However, the development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems and compliance with water resource regulations is more recent. It is important to predict potential impacts of future climate change on streamflows and groundwater levels to reduce risks and increase resilience in water resources management and planning. This study evaluated future streamflows and groundwater levels in the Tampa Bay region in west-central Florida using an ensemble of different GCMs, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) methods, and water use scenarios to drive an integrated hydrologic model (IHM). Eight GCMs were bias-corrected and downscaled using the Bias Correction and Stochastic Analog (BCSA) downscaling method and then used, together with three ET0 methods, to drive the IHM for eight different human water use scenarios. Results showed that changes in projected streamflow were most sensitive to GCM selection, however, projections of groundwater level change were sensitive to both GCM and water use scenario. Projected changes in streamflow and groundwater level were relatively insensitive to the ET0 methods evaluated in this study. Six of eight GCMs projected a decrease in streamflow and groundwater level in the future regardless of water use scenario or ET method. These results indicate a high probability of a reduction in future water supply in the Tampa Bay region if environmental regulations intended to protect current aquatic ecosystems do not adapt to the changing climate.

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