scholarly journals The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuchun Cao ◽  
Sake J. De Vlas ◽  
Jan H. Richardus
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Political Commitment ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR) of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteo­necrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nation-wide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

scholarly journals Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6500) ◽  
pp. 208-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Salje ◽  
Cécile Tran Kiem ◽  
Noémie Lefrancq ◽  
Noémie Courtejoie ◽  
Paolo Bosetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Death Data

France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

scholarly journals Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (15) ◽  
pp. 2799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Danish Khan ◽  
Hong Ha Thi Vu ◽  
Quang Tuan Lai ◽  
Ji Whan Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector’s growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

scholarly journals Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunxiang Cao ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Sheng Zheng ◽  
Jian Zhao ◽  
Jinfeng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Bayesian Maximum Entropy ◽  
Covariance Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Spatiotemporal Transmission

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

scholarly journals The impact of contact structure on infectious disease control: influenza and antiviral agents

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (7) ◽  
pp. 1124-1132 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-P. DUERR ◽  
M. SCHWEHM ◽  
C. C. LEARY ◽  
S. J. De Vlas ◽  
M. EICHNER
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Antiviral Agents ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Variable Degree ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYPlanning adequate public health responses against emerging infectious diseases requires predictive tools to evaluate the impact of candidate intervention strategies. With current interest in pandemic influenza very high, modelling approaches have suggested antiviral treatment combined with targeted prophylaxis as an effective first-line intervention against an emerging influenza pandemic. To investigate how the effectiveness of such interventions depends on contact structure, we simulate the effects in networks with variable degree distributions. The infection attack rate can increase if the number of contacts per person is heterogeneous, implying the existence of high-degree individuals who are potential super-spreaders. The effectiveness of a socially targeted intervention suffers from heterogeneous contact patterns and depends on whether infection is predominantly transmitted to close or casual contacts. Our findings imply that the various contact networks' degree distributions as well as the allocation of contagiousness between close and casual contacts should be examined to identify appropriate strategies of disease control measures.

scholarly journals Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheikh Taslim Ali ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Xiao-Ke Xu ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.

scholarly journals Measles in developing countries. Part II. The predicted impact of mass vaccination

1988 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 419-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Mclean ◽  
R. M. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Measles Virus ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
The Impact

SummaryA mathematical model is developed to mimic the transmission dynamics of the measles virus in communities in the developing world with high population growth rates and high case fatality rates. The model is used to compare the impacts of different mass vaccination programmes upon morbidity and mortality arising from infection by measles virus. Analyses identify three conclusions of practical significance to the design of optimal vaccination programmes. First, there is no single optimum age at which to vaccinate children for all urban and rural communities in developing countries. For a given community the best age at which to vaccinate depends critically on the age distribution of cases of infection prior to the introduction of control measures. Second, numerical studies predict that the introduction of mass vaccination will induce a temporary phase of very low incidence of infection before the system settles to a new pattern of recurrent epidemics. Mass vaccination acts to lengthen the inter-epidemic period in the postvaccination period when compared with that prevailing prior to control. Third, numerical simulations suggest that two-phase and two-stage vaccination programmes are of less benefit than one-stage programmes (achieving comparable coverage) aimed at young children. The paper ends with a discussion of the needs for: improved programmes of data collection; monitoring of the impact of current vaccination programmes; and the development of models that take account of viral transmission dynamics, host demography and economic factors.

scholarly journals Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (13) ◽  
pp. 7504-7509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad R. Wells ◽  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Seyed M. Moghadas ◽  
Abhishek Pandey ◽  
Affan Shoukat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Border Control ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.

scholarly journals Suboptimal personal protective equipment and SARS-CoV2 infection in Nephrologists: a Spanish national survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borja Quiroga ◽  
Emilio Sánchez-Álvarez ◽  
Alberto Ortiz ◽  
Patricia de Sequera
Keyword(s):  
National Survey ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Serological Tests ◽  
Female Age ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Healthcare workers have been overexposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the current pandemic, but there is little information on the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on nephrologists. The aim of this study was to assess SARS-CoV-2 infections in nephrologists in the first and second pandemic waves, describing risk factors and clinical features. Methods This national survey was sent to Spanish nephrologists. Epidemiological data, comorbidities and medications were collected and compared between infected and non-infected nephrologists. Symptoms, prescribed treatments and outcomes are described for infected nephrologists. Results Three hundred and twenty-seven nephrologists (66% female, age 46 ± 11 years) completed the survey. Of them, 62 (19%) were infected by SARS-CoV-2. Infection was detected by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction in the 37 symptomatic patients (62%) and by serological tests in 25 (38%) asymptomatic individuals. Five (8%) of the infected nephrologists were hospitalized. Contrary to the general population, most infections occurred during the first pandemic wave and, specifically, during the first month, when personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages were more severe. Factors associated with infection in univariate analysis were younger age (P = 0.004), work in non-nephrology departments (P = 0.045), higher exposure to coronavirus disease 2019 patients (P < 0.001), lack of appropriate PPE (P < 0.001) and non-O ABO blood group. In an adjusted multivariate model, only lack of appropriate PPE remained predictive of infection [hazard ratio 3.5 (95% confidence interval 1.9–6.8), P < 0.0001]. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 infection was frequent among nephrologists, was frequently diagnosed late and was associated with working conditions.

scholarly journals Visual Exploratory Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: One Year After the Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amril Nazir ◽  
Suleyman Ulusoy ◽  
Lujaini Lotfi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Control School ◽  
One Year ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spearman Test

Background Since the beginning of the year 2020, governments across the globe have taken different measures to handle the Covid-19 outbreak. Many different policies and restrictive measures were implemented to prevent transmission outspread, to reduce the impacts of the outbreak (i.e., individual, social, and economic), and to provide effective control measures. Although it has been more than one year already after the outbreak, very little studies have been done to examine the long-term effects and impact of the pandemic, and to examine the government intervention variables that are most effective and least effective. Such analysis is critical to determine the best practices in support of policy decisions. Methods Visual exploratory data analysis (V-EDA) is highly recommended to evaluate the impact of the pandemic since it offers a user's friendly data visualization model that allows one to observe visual patterns on trends. The V-EDA was conducted on one-year data for the COVID-19 Pandemic- one year after the outbreak between 1st January and 31 December 2020. The data were analyzed using the student's t-test to verify if there was a statistical difference between two independent groups and the Spearman test was used to analyze the correlation coefficient between two quantitative data, as well as their positive or negative inclination. Findings We found that high-testing countries had more cases per million than low-testing countries. However, for low-testing countries, there was a positive correlation between the testing level and the number of cases per million. This suggests that countries that had tested more, did it in a preventive manner while countries with fewer tests may have a higher number of cases than confirmed. In the poorest developing countries, the reduced new cases coincide with the reduction in conducted tests, which was not observed in the high-testing countries. Among the restrictive measures analyzed, a higher population aged 70 or more and lower GDP per capita was related to a higher case fatality ratio. Restrictive measures reduce the number of new cases after four weeks, indicating the minimum time required for the measures to have a positive effect. Finally, public event cancellation, international travel control, school closing, contact tracing, and facial coverings were the most important measures to reduce the virus spread. As a result, it was observed that countries with the lowest number of cases had a higher stringency index.

scholarly journals Rapid Creation of a Temporary Isolation Ward for Patients With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Taiwan

2004 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 1026-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-Phone Fung ◽  
Tsorng-Liu Hsieh ◽  
Kuang-Huan Tan ◽  
Chin-Hui Loh ◽  
Jiunn-Sheng Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Military Hospital ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Medical Centers ◽  
Isolation Ward ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Results

AbstractObjectives:To rapidly establish a temporary isolation ward to handle an unexpected sudden outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and to evaluate the implementation of exposure control measures by healthcare workers (HCWs) for SARS patients.Design:Rapid creation of 60 relatively negative pressure isolation rooms for 196 suspected SARS patients transferred from 19 hospitals and daily temperature recordings of 180 volunteer HCWs from 6 medical centers.Setting:A military hospital.Results:Of the 196 patients, 34 (17.3%) met the World Health Organization criteria for probable SARS with positive results of serologic testing for SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV), reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from nasopharyngeal or throat swabs for SARS-CoV, or both. Seventy-four patients had suspected SARS based on unprotected exposure to SARS patients; three of them had positive results on RT-PCR but negative serologic results. The remaining 88 patients did not meet the criteria for a probable or suspected SARS diagnosis. Of the 34 patients with probable SARS, 13 were transferred to medical centers to receive mechanical ventilation due to rapid deterioration of chest x-ray results, and three patients died of SARS despite intensive therapy in medical centers. During the study period, one nurse developed probable SARS due to violation of infection control measures, but there was no evidence of cross-transmission to other HCWs.Conclusions:Despite the use of full personal protection equipment, the facility failed to totally prevent exposures of HCWs to SARS but minimized the risk of nosocomial transmission. Better training and improvements in infection control infrastructure may limit the impact of SARS.

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