scholarly journals Predicting malaria cases using remotely sensed environmental variables in Nkomazi, South Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abiodun Morakinyo Adeola ◽  
Joel Ondego Botai ◽  
Jane Mukarugwiza Olwoch ◽  
Hannes C.J. De W. Rautenbach ◽  
Omolola Mayowa Adisa ◽  
...  

There has been a conspicuous increase in malaria cases since 2016/2017 over the three malaria-endemic provinces of South Africa. This increase has been linked to climatic and environmental factors. In the absence of adequate traditional environmental/climatic data covering ideal spatial and temporal extent for a reliable warning system, remotely sensed data are useful for the investigation of the relationship with, and the prediction of, malaria cases. Monthly environmental variables such as the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), the land surface temperature for night (LSTN) and day (LSTD), and rainfall were derived and evaluated using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models with different lag periods. Predictions were made for the last 56 months of the time series and were compared to the observed malaria cases from January 2013 to August 2017. All these factors were found to be statistically significant in predicting malaria transmission at a 2-months lag period except for LSTD which impact the number of malaria cases negatively. Rainfall showed the highest association at the two-month lag time (r=0.74; P<0.001), followed by EVI (r=0.69; P<0.001), NDVI (r=0.65; P<0.001), NDWI (r=0.63; P<0.001) and LSTN (r=0.60; P<0.001). SARIMA without environmental variables had an adjusted R2 of 0.41, while SARIMA with total monthly rainfall, EVI, NDVI, NDWI and LSTN were able to explain about 65% of the variation in malaria cases. The prediction indicated a general increase in malaria cases, predicting about 711 against 648 observed malaria cases. The development of a predictive early warning system is imperative for effective malaria control, prevention of outbreaks and its subsequent elimination in the region.

2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. M. Hu ◽  
S. G. Li ◽  
J. W. Dong ◽  
J. W. Fan

The spatial annual patterns of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) of the rangelands of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China, a region in which several projects for ecosystem restoration had been implemented, are described for the years 1998–2007. Remotely sensed normalised difference vegetation index and ANPP data, measured in situ, were integrated to allow the prediction of ANPP and PUE in each 1 km2 of the 12 prefectures of Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of PUE and ANPP residuals, as indicators of ecosystem deterioration and recovery, were investigated for the region and each prefecture. In general, both ANPP and PUE were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation, i.e. ANPP and PUE were higher in wet regions than in arid regions. Both PUE and ANPP residuals indicated that the state of the rangelands of the region were generally improving during the period of 2000–05, but declined by 2007 to that found in 1999. Among the four main grassland-dominated prefectures, the recovery in the state of the grasslands in the Erdos and Chifeng prefectures was highest, and Xilin Gol and Chifeng prefectures was 2 years earlier than Erdos and Hunlu Buir prefectures. The study demonstrated that the use of PUE or ANPP residuals has some limitations and it is proposed that both indices should be used together with relatively long-term datasets in order to maximise the reliability of the assessments.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bipin Acharya ◽  
Chunxiang Cao ◽  
Min Xu ◽  
Laxman Khanal ◽  
Shahid Naeem ◽  
...  

Dengue fever is one of the leading public health problems of tropical and subtropical countries across the world. Transmission dynamics of dengue fever is largely affected by meteorological and environmental factors, and its temporal pattern generally peaks in hot-wet periods of the year. Despite this continuously growing problem, the temporal dynamics of dengue fever and associated potential environmental risk factors are not documented in Nepal. The aim of this study was to fill this research gap by utilizing epidemiological and earth observation data in Chitwan district, one of the frequent dengue outbreak areas of Nepal. We used laboratory confirmed monthly dengue cases as a dependent variable and a set of remotely sensed meteorological and environmental variables as explanatory factors to describe their temporal relationship. Descriptive statistics, cross correlation analysis, and the Poisson generalized additive model were used for this purpose. Results revealed that dengue fever is significantly associated with satellite estimated precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) synchronously and with different lag periods. However, the associations were weak and insignificant with immediate daytime land surface temperature (dLST) and nighttime land surface temperature (nLST), but were significant after 4–5 months. Conclusively, the selected Poisson generalized additive model based on the precipitation, dLST, and NDVI explained the largest variation in monthly distribution of dengue fever with minimum Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and maximum R-squared. The best fit model further significantly improved after including delayed effects in the model. The predicted cases were reasonably accurate based on the comparison of 10-fold cross validation and observed cases. The lagged association found in this study could be useful for the development of remote sensing-based early warning forecasts of dengue fever.


2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. P. Weissling ◽  
H. Xie ◽  
K. E. Murray

Abstract. Soil moisture condition plays a vital role in a watershed's hydrologic response to a precipitation event and is thus parameterized in most, if not all, rainfall-runoff models. Yet the soil moisture condition antecedent to an event has proven difficult to quantify both spatially and temporally. This study assesses the potential to parameterize a parsimonious streamflow prediction model solely utilizing precipitation records and multi-temporal remotely sensed biophysical variables (i.e.~from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra satellite). This study is conducted on a 1420 km2 rural watershed in the Guadalupe River basin of southcentral Texas, a basin prone to catastrophic flooding from convective precipitation events. A multiple regression model, accounting for 78% of the variance of observed streamflow for calendar year 2004, was developed based on gauged precipitation, land surface temperature, and enhanced vegetation Index (EVI), on an 8-day interval. These results compared favorably with streamflow estimations utilizing the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number method and the 5-day antecedent moisture model. This approach has great potential for developing near real-time predictive models for flood forecasting and can be used as a tool for flood management in any region for which similar remotely sensed data are available.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleem Khaliq ◽  
Lorenzo Comba ◽  
Alessandro Biglia ◽  
Davide Ricauda Aimonino ◽  
Marcello Chiaberge ◽  
...  

In agriculture, remotely sensed data play a crucial role in providing valuable information on crop and soil status to perform effective management. Several spectral indices have proven to be valuable tools in describing crop spatial and temporal variability. In this paper, a detailed analysis and comparison of vineyard multispectral imagery, provided by decametric resolution satellite and low altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) platforms, is presented. The effectiveness of Sentinel-2 imagery and of high-resolution UAV aerial images was evaluated by considering the well-known relation between the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and crop vigour. After being pre-processed, the data from UAV was compared with the satellite imagery by computing three different NDVI indices to properly analyse the unbundled spectral contribution of the different elements in the vineyard environment considering: (i) the whole cropland surface; (ii) only the vine canopies; and (iii) only the inter-row terrain. The results show that the raw s resolution satellite imagery could not be directly used to reliably describe vineyard variability. Indeed, the contribution of inter-row surfaces to the remotely sensed dataset may affect the NDVI computation, leading to biased crop descriptors. On the contrary, vigour maps computed from the UAV imagery, considering only the pixels representing crop canopies, resulted to be more related to the in-field assessment compared to the satellite imagery. The proposed method may be extended to other crop typologies grown in rows or without intensive layout, where crop canopies do not extend to the whole surface or where the presence of weeds is significant.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabelo Nick Dlamini ◽  
Jonas Franke ◽  
Penelope Vounatsou

Many entomological studies have analyzed remotely sensed data to assess the relationship between malaria vector distribution and the associated environmental factors. However, the high cost of remotely sensed products with high spatial resolution has often resulted in analyses being conducted at coarse scales using open-source, archived remotely sensed data. In the present study, spatial prediction of potential breeding sites based on multi-scale remotely sensed information in conjunction with entomological data with special reference to presence or absence of larvae was realized. Selected water bodies were tested for mosquito larvae using the larva scooping method, and the results were compared with data on land cover, rainfall, land surface temperature (LST) and altitude presented with high spatial resolution. To assess which environmental factors best predict larval presence or absence, Decision Tree methodology and logistic regression techniques were applied. Both approaches showed that some environmental predictors can reliably distinguish between the two alternatives (existence and non-existence of larvae). For example, the results suggest that larvae are mainly present in very small water pools related to human activities, such as subsistence farming that were also found to be the major determinant for vector breeding. Rainfall, LST and altitude, on the other hand, were less useful as a basis for mapping the distribution of breeding sites. In conclusion, we found that models linking presence of larvae with high-resolution land use have good predictive ability of identifying potential breeding sites.


1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (2/3) ◽  
pp. 149-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Shuttleworth

Abstract. This paper describes a strategic approach for providing documentation of the surface energy exchange for heterogeneous land surfaces via the simultaneous, four-dimensional assimilation of several streams of remotely sensed data into a coupled land surface-atmosphere model. The basic concepts and underlying theory behind this proposed approach are presented with the intent that this will guide, facilitate, and stimulate future research focused on its practical implementation when appropriate data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) become available. The theoretical concepts that underlie the approach are derived from relationships between the values of parameters which control surface exchanges at pixel (or patch) scale and the area-average value of equivalent parameters applicable at larger, grid scale. A three-step implementation method is proposed which involves (a) estimating grid-average surface radiation fluxes from appropriate remotely sensed data; (b) absorbing these radiation flux estimates into a four-dimensional data assimilation model in which grid-average values of vegetation-related parameters are calculated from pertinent remotely sensed data using the equations that link pixel and grid scales; and (c) improving the resulting estimate of the surface energy balance-again using scale-linking equations by estimating the effect of soil-moisture availability, perhaps assuming that cloud-free pixels are an unbiased subsample of all the pixels in the grid square.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Tengku Adhwa Syaherah Tengku Mohd Suhairi ◽  
Siti Sarah Mohd Sinin ◽  
Eranga M. Wimalasiri ◽  
Nur Marahaini Mohd Nizar ◽  
Anil Shekar Tharmandran ◽  
...  

In this experiment, proximal measurements and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery was used to determine growth stages for bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.). The crop is a high potential crop due to its ability to yield in marginal environments, but neglected and underutilised due to lack of information on its growth in different environments. This study evaluated the correlation between Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the ground as well as airborne sensors to test the ability of remotely sensed data to identify growth stages. NDVI and chlorophyll content of bambara groundnut leaves were measured at ground level at 18, 32, 46 and 88 days after planting (DAP) comprising vegetative, flowering, pod formation and maturity growth stages. The UAV imagery for the experimental plots was acquired with 0.2m resolution at maturity. The result showed a significant (p &lt; 0.05) linear relationship between proximal NDVI and chlorophylls content at all growth stages ofgrowth. The R2 varied from 0.57 in the vegetative stage to 0.78 in the flowering stage. Furthermore, NDVI derived from proximal measurements and UAV data showed a significant (p &lt; 0.05) correlation. The observed high correlation between proximal sensors, UAV data and crop parameters suggest that remote sensing technologies can be used for rapid phenotyping to hasten the development of models to assess the performance of underutilised crops for food and nutrition security.


2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-60
Author(s):  
Cathy Fricke ◽  
Rita Pongrácz ◽  
Tamás Gál ◽  
Stevan Savić ◽  
János Unger

AbstractUrban and rural thermal properties mainly depend on surface cover features as well as vegetation cover. Surface classification using the local climate zone (LCZ) system provides an appropriate approach for distinguishing urban and rural areas, as well as comparing the surface urban heat island (SUHI) of climatically different regions. Our goal is to compare the SUHI effects of two Central European cities (Szeged, Hungary and Novi Sad, Serbia) with a temperate climate (Köppen-Geiger’s Cfa), and a city (Beer Sheva, Israel) with a hot desert (BWh) climate. LCZ classification is completed using WUDAPT (World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools) methodology and the thermal differences are analysed on the basis of the land surface temperature data of the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor, derived on clear days over a four-year period. This intra-climate region comparison shows the difference between the SUHI effects of Szeged and Novi Sad in spring and autumn. As the pattern of NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) indicates, the vegetation coverage of the surrounding rural areas is an important modifying factor of the diurnal SUHI effect, and can change the sign of the urban-rural thermal difference. According to the inter-climate comparison, the urban-rural thermal contrast is the strongest during daytime in summer with an opposite sign in each season.


Author(s):  
Sassi Mohamed Taher

This document is meant to demonstrate the potential uses of remote sensing in managing water resources for irrigated agriculture and to create awareness among potential users. Researchers in various international programs have studied the potential use of remotely sensed data to obtain accurate information on land surface processes and conditions. These studies have demonstrated that quantitative assessment of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer processes can lead to a better understanding of the relationships between crop growth and water management. Remote sensing and GIS was used to map the agriculture area and for detect the change. This was very useful for mapping availability and need of water resources but the problem was concentrating in data collection and analysis because this kind of information and expertise are not available in all country in the world mainly in the developing and under developed country or third world country. However, even though considerable progress has been made over the past 20 years in research applications, remotely sensed data remain underutilized by practicing water resource managers. This paper seeks to bridge the gap between researchers and practitioners first, by illustrating where research tools and techniques have practical applications and, second, by identifying real problems that remote sensing could solve. An important challenge in the field of water resources is to utilize the timely, objective and accurate information provided by remote sensing.


2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.F. Johnson ◽  
N.A. Bryant ◽  
A.J. BrazeI ◽  
C.F. Hutchinson ◽  
R.C. Balling

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