scholarly journals Spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of malaria in the state of Acre, western Amazon, Brazil

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Augusto Kohara Melchior ◽  
Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Parasite Species ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Malaria Mortality ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Since 2005, the State of Acre, western Amazon, Brazil, has reported the highest annual parasite incidence (API) of malaria among the Brazilian states. This study examines malaria incidence in Acre using spatial and spatio-temporal analysis based on an ecological time series study analyzing malaria cases and deaths for the time period 1992- 2014 and using secondary data. API indexes were calculated by age, sex, parasite species, ratio of <em>Plasmodium vivax</em> to <em>P. falciparum</em> malaria, malaria mortality rate and case fatality rate. SaTScan was used to detect spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of malaria cases and data were represented in the form of choropleth maps. A high-risk cluster of malaria was detected in Vale do Juruá and three low-risk clusters in Vale do Acre for both parasite species. Those younger than 19 years of age and females showed a high incidence of malaria in Vale do Juruá, but working-age males were the most affected in Vale do Acre. The malaria mortality rate showed a decreasing trend across the state, while the case fatality rate increased only in the micro-region of Rio Branco during the study period. We conclude that malaria is a focal disease in Acre showing different spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of cases and deaths that vary by age, sex, and parasite species. Malaria incidence is thought to be influenced by factors related to regional characteristics; therefore, appropriate disease and vector control strategies must be implemented at each locality.

scholarly journals Risk factors for incidence and case-fatality rates of healthcare-associated infections: a 20-year follow-up of a hospital-based cohort

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (1) ◽  
pp. 198-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.-F. WANG ◽  
S.-H. SHEN ◽  
A. M.-F. YEN ◽  
T.-L. WANG ◽  
T.-N. JANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Healthcare Associated Infections ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Infection Site ◽  
Healthcare Associated

SUMMARYInformation is lacking on the integrated evaluation of mortality rates in healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Our aim was to differentiate the risk factors responsible for the incidence from those for the case-fatality rates in association with HAIs. We therefore examined the time trends of both incidence and case-fatality rates over a 20-year period at a tertiary-care teaching medical centre in Taiwan and the mortality rate was expressed as the product of the incidence rate and the case-fatality rate. During the study period the overall mortality rate fell from 0·46 to 0·32 deaths/1000 patient-days and the incidence rate fell from 3·41 to 2·31/1000 patient-days, but the case-fatality rate increased marginally from 13·5% to 14·0%. The independent risk factors associated with incidence of HAIs were age, gender, infection site, admission type, and department of hospitalization. Significant prognostic factors for HAI case-fatality were age, infection site, intensive care, and clinical department. We conclude that the decreasing trend for the HAI mortality rate was accompanied by a significant decline in the incidence rate and this was offset by a slightly increasing trend in the case-fatality rate. This deconstruction approach could provide further insights into the underlying complex causes of mortality for HAIs.

scholarly journals Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghai Liang ◽  
Liuhua Shi ◽  
Jingxuan Zhao ◽  
Pengfei Liu ◽  
Joel Schwartz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Urban Air Pollution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
County Level ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
P Values

AbstractBackgroundThe novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 240,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5 and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, sociodemographic, socioeconomic status, behavior risk factors, and meteorological factors.Results1,027,799 COVID-19 cases and 58,489 deaths were reported in 3,122 US counties from January 22, 2020 to April 29, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 5.8%. Spatial variations were observed for both COVID-19 death outcomes and long-term ambient air pollutant levels. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models (p-values<0.05). Per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 7.1% (95% CI 1.2% to 13.4%) and 11.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 19.5%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between long-term exposures to PM2.5 or O3 and COVID-19 death outcomes (p-values>0.05), although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (3.4 ug/m3) was marginally associated with 10.8% (95% CI: −1.1% to 24.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate.Discussions and ConclusionsLong-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of longterm PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Moreover, continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution levels may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Risk factors affecting COVID-19 case fatality rate: A quantitative analysis of top 50 affected countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Poh Goh ◽  
Wafiah Ilyani Mahari ◽  
Norhadyrah Izazie Ahad ◽  
Li Ling Chaw ◽  
Nurolaini Kifli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Diabetes Prevalence ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Fatality Rate

AbstractBackgroundLatest clinical data on treatment on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) indicated that older patients and those with underlying history of smoking, hypertension or diabetes mellitus might have poorer prognosis of recovery from COVID-19. We aimed to examine the relationship of various prevailing population-based risk factors in comparison with mortality rate and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19.MethodsDemography and epidemiology data which have been identified as verified or postulated risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 were used. The number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths until April 16, 2020 for all affected countries were extracted from Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 websites. Datasets for indicators that are fitting with the factors of COVID-19 mortality were extracted from the World Bank database. Out of about 185 affected countries, only top 50 countries were selected to be analyzed in this study. The following seven variables were included in the analysis, based on data availability and completeness: 1) proportion of people aged 65 above, 2) proportion of male in the population, 3) diabetes prevalence, 4) smoking prevalence, 5) current health expenditure, 6) number of hospital beds and 7) number of nurses and midwives. Quantitative analysis was carried out to determine the correlation between CFR and the aforementioned risk factors.ResultsUnited States shows about 0.20% of confirmed cases in its country and it has about 4.85% of CFR. Luxembourg shows the highest percentage of confirmed cases of 0.55% but a low 2.05% of CFR, showing that a high percentage of confirmed cases does not necessarily lead to high CFR. There is a significant correlation between CFR, people aged 65 and above (p = 0.35) and diabetes prevalence (p = 0.01). However, in our study, there is no significant correlation between CFR of COVID-19, male gender (p = 0.26) and smoking prevalence (p = 0.60).ConclusionOlder people above 65 years old and diabetic patients are significant risk factors for COVID-19. Nevertheless, gender differences and smoking prevalence failed to prove a significant relationship with COVID-19 mortality rate and CFR.

scholarly journals Global Pandemic Trends of COVID-19 in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai-Zhen Chen ◽  
Bo Cai ◽  
Jian-Guo Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been global threaten to public health. This paper provides perspective to the decision-making for public health control of the pandemic or the spread of epidemic.Methods: According to the WHO global reported database, we developed and used the number of cumulative cases, and the number of cumulative deaths to calculate and analyze rates of incidence, mortality, and fatality by country, with respect to the 30 highest outbreak (Top 30) countries.Results： As of December 31, 2020, of the global population of 7.585 billion, the cumulative number of reported cases was 81,475,053, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,798,050. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 1074.13 per 100,000 population, the mortality rate was 23.70 per 100,000, and the case fatality rate was 2.21%. Among the Top 30 countries, the five countries with the highest number of reported cumulative cases were, in rank, the United States (19,346,790 cases), India (10,266,674), Brazil (7,563,551), Russia (3,159,297) and France (2,556,708), and the five countries with the highest number of cumulative deaths were the United States (335,789 cases), Brazil (192,681), India (148,738), Mexico (123,845) and Italy (73,604). Globally, the countries with the highest incidence rate were, in rank, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, San Marino, and Czechia; the countries with the highest mortality rate were, in rank, San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Italy, and North Macedonia. The highest fatality rate was found in Yemen, Mexico, Montserrat, Isle of Man, and Ecuador, respectively. In China, 96,673 cases of COVID-19 and 4788 deaths were reported in 2020, ranking the 78th and the 43rd, respectively, in the world. The incidence rate and mortality rate were 6.90/105 and 0.34/105, respectively, ranking 207th and 188th in the world. The case fatality rate was 4.95%, ranking 11th in the world.Conclusions： The COVID-19 prevalence is still on the rise, and the turning points of incidence and mortality are not yet forecasted. Personal protection, anti-epidemic measures and efforts from public health personnel, medical professionals, biotechnology R&D personnel, effectiveness of the vaccination programs and the governments, are the important factors to determine the future prevalence of this coronavirus disease.

scholarly journals Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Around The World: An Adjusted Estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽  
Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽  
Marzieh Mahmudimanesh ◽  
Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Total Expenditure ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract Background: The present study is designed to predict the global adjusted values for mortality rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19 around the world. Methods: This research was conducted at the ecological level using data from 100 countries which were chosen randomly. The adjusted values were predicted using beta regression considering predictive factors such as total expenditure on health per capita, expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years, hospital beds (per 1000 population), physicians (per 1000 population), nurses (per 1000 population), prevalence of smoking, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and number of confirmed tests in each country. In the end, applying Monte Carlo simulation, the adjusted values of mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated.Results: The results of this study showed that two factors including percentage of population ages 65 and above (P=0.03) and Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (P = 0.04) had a statistically significant relationship with the case fatality rate. Moreover, there was a statistically significant relationship between the mortality rate and life expectancy (P = 0.02), total expenditure on health per capita (P < 0.001), nurses (Per 1000 Population) (P=0.04), and the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (P=0.04). The mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated to be 0.000001 and 0.026, respectively.Conclusion: It seems that what can cause global concern is not the case fatality rate of the disease, but its mortality rate, which is directly related to the health status of a community. The worse the health status of a community, the greater the number of infected people likely to be there, that ultimately increases the mortality rate of the disease in the community.

scholarly journals Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tareef Fadhil Raham
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Paired Samples ◽  
Significant Difference

Background: During the current Covid-19 pandemic case fatality rate (CFR) estimates were subjected to a lot of debates regarding the accuracy of its estimations, predictions, and the reason of across countries variances. In this context, we conduct this study to see the relationship between attack rate (AR) and CFR. The study hypothesis is based on two: 1- evidence suggests that the mortality rate (MR) has a positive influence on case fatality ratio (CFR), 2- and increase number of Covid-19 cases leads to increased mortality rate (MR). Material and methods: Thirty countries and territories were chosen. Inclusion criterion was > 500 Covid-19 reported cases per 10,000 population inhabitants. Data on covid-19 cases and deaths was selected as it was on March 10, 2021. Statistical methods used are descriptive and one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S), the one-way ANOVA, Levene, least significant different (LSD), and matched paired-samples T-tests. Results: ANOVA test showed a significant difference at P<0.01 among all studied groups concerning AR and CFR mean values. Group of countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants recorded the highest level of crude mean CFR and AR values, and recorded the highest gap with leftover groups, especially with countries reported MR of <10 death/ 104 inhabitants. There were independence 95% confidence intervals of mean CFR and AR values between countries with ≥ 15 death / 104 MR and countries with MR of <10 death /104. There was a significant difference between countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants and countries with MR of <10 death / 10 4 inhabitants groups through least significant difference (LSD) test for CFR%( 0.042 p-values) and Games Howell (GH) test for AR/104 (p-value 0.000). Conclusions: CFR has a positive significant association with AR.

scholarly journals Hospitalization and Case Fatality in Individuals with Sickle Cell Disease and COVID-19 Infection

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 7-8
Author(s):  
Lana Mucalo ◽  
Amanda M. Brandow ◽  
Sadie F. Mason ◽  
Ashima Singh ◽  
Bradley W. Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
General Population ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Black Population ◽  
Hospitalization Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
California Department

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited hemoglobinopathy that can affect nearly every organ system. Individuals living with SCD are at high risk of developing serious infections which can further trigger disease related complications and attribute additional morbidity and mortality. In light of the evolving pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, and the potential for future infectious disease epidemics, it is important to understand the impact that COVID-19 has on hospitalization rates and mortality in this medically vulnerable population. The objective of this study was to describe hospitalization and case fatality rates secondary to COVID-19 among individuals living with SCD in different age groups and compare these to the general population. The Medical College of Wisconsin established the international SECURE-SCD Registry to collect data on pediatric and adult COVID-19 infections in individuals living with SCD. Providers are instructed to report confirmed COVID-19 cases to the registry after sufficient time has passed to observe the disease course through resolution of acute illness and/or death. For each case, providers complete a short form that includes the following data: patient demographics, COVID-19 related hospitalization, COVID-19 severity/management strategies, if the patient died due to COVID, and other information about SCD complications. Data are de-identified and without protected health information to facilitate rapid and increased reporting. We calculated the hospitalization rate and case fatality rate for individuals with SCD by specific age group and contrasted it with the rates publicly available for the general Black population. We utilized data from California Department of Public Health for case fatality rate comparison in Blacks and data from COVID-NET for hospitalization rate comparison. We used indirect age adjustment to calculate standardized mortality ratios using COVID-19 data from California state as the reference population. As of July 17th 2020, 218 cases of COVID-19 in Blacks with SCD in the US were reported to the registry. There was a slight predominance of females (52.8%) and 32.1% of reported cases were patients 18 years and under. There were 15 deaths reported with overall mortality rate of 6.9%. Figure 1 shows the distribution of cases and deaths by age group and gender. Mortality rate in SCD patients was highest in the 50-64 years age group (23.1%) in contrast to mortality rate peaks seen in the general population in patients older than 80 years (Table 1). Young adult SCD patients aged 18-34 years had a case fatality rate of 3.3% and those aged 34-50 years had a rate of 14.9%. California Department of Public Health report case fatality rates for Blacks are less than 1% in both of these comparative age groups. Age-standardized mortality ratio shows that individuals with SCD are 7.7 times more likely to die due to COVID-19 infection compared to the general population. The overall hospitalization rate in individuals with SCD was 72.5% and 18.8% of reported hospitalized cases were children. Among hospitalized adults with SCD, stratification by age showed that 85% were aged 18-49, whereas only 25.7% of people 18-49 years in the general Black population were hospitalized (Table 2). Our findings show that individuals with SCD who have COVID-19 infection have higher rates of death due to COVID-19 than the general Black population. Also, a large proportion of COVID hospitalization for the SCD population occurs among the younger age group. Further analysis is planned to examine effects of underlying comorbidities and prior SCD-associated complications on the severity of COVID-19 in individuals with SCD. Disclosures Mucalo: NIH/NHLBI: Research Funding; NIH/NINDS: Research Funding. Brandow:Greater Milwaukee Foundation: Research Funding; NIH / NHLBI: Research Funding. Panepinto:HRSA: Research Funding; NINDS: Research Funding; NINDS: Research Funding; NHLBI: Research Funding.

scholarly journals Assessment of the potential role of PM2.5/PM10 particles in intensifying the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Northern Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Girolamo
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Pm10 Concentration ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Po Valley ◽  
Concentration Levels

Abstract The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which exploded in Wuhan (Hebei Region, China) in late 2019, has recently spread around the World, causing pandemic effects on humans. Italy, and especially its Northern regions around the Po Valley, has been facing severe effects in terms of infected individuals and casualties (more than 31.000 deaths and 255.000 infected people by mid-May 2020). While the spread and effective impact of the virus is primarily related to the life styles and social habits of the different human communities, environmental and meteorological factors also play a role. Among these, pollution from PM2.5/PM10 particles, which may directly impact on the human respiratory system or act as virus carrier, thus behaving as potential amplifying factors in the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Enhanced levels of PM2.5/PM10 particles in Northern Italy were observed over the two month period preceding the virus pandemic spread. Threshold levels for PM10 (<50 µg/m³) were exceeded on 20-35 days over the period January-February 2020 in many areas in the Po Valley, where major effects in terms of infections and casualties occurred, with levels in excess of 80 µg/m³ occasionally observed in the 1-3 weeks preceding the contagious activation around February 25th. Threshold values for PM2.5 indicted in WHO air quality guidelines (<25 µg/m³) were exceeded on more than 40 days over the period January-February 2020 in large portions of the Po Valley, with levels up to 70 µg/m³ observed in the weeks preceding the contagious activation. The evolution of particle matter concentration levels throughout the month of February 2020 was carefully monitored and results are reported in the paper.In this paper PM10 particle measurements are compared with epidemiologic parameters data. Specifically, a statistical analysis is carried out to correlate the infection rate, or incidence of the pathology, the mortality rate and the case fatality rate with PM concentration levels. The study considers epidemiologic data for all 110 Italian Provinces, as reported by the Italian Statistics Institute (ISTAT, 2020), over the period 20 February-31 March 2020. Corresponding PM10 concentration levels were collected from the network of air quality monitoring stations run by different Regional and Provincial Environment Agencies, covering the period 15-26 February 2020. The case fatality rate is found to be highly correlated to the average PM10 concentration, with a correlation coefficient of 0.89 and a slope of the regression line of (6.7±0.3)×10-3 m³/µg, which implies a doubling (from 3 to 6 %) of the mortality rate of infected patients for an average PM10 concentration increase from 22 to 27 μg/m³. Infection and mortality rates are also found to be correlated with PM10 concentration levels, with correlation coefficients being 0.82 and 0.80, respectively, and the slopes of the regression lines indicating a doubling (from 1 to 2 ‰) of the infection rate and a tripling (from 0.1 to 0.3 ‰) of the mortality rate for an average PM10 concentration increase from 25 to 29 μg/m³. Epidemiologic parameters data were also compared with population density data, but no clear evidence of a mutual correlation between these quantities was found. Considerations on the exhaled particles' sizes and concentrations, their residence times, transported viral dose and minimum infective dose, in combination with PM2.5/PM10 pollution measurements and an analytical microphysical model, allowed assessing the potential role of airborne transmission through virus-transmitting PM particles, in addition to droplet transmission, in conveying SARS-CoV-2 in the human respiratory system.

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