SS: Metocean: Comprehensive Hindcast of Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico

Coastal marshes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline provide very important ecosystem services such as serving as habitat for a variety of flora and fauna and providing flood protection for inland areas. A growing body of research has documented how hurricane storm surge sedimentation has increased the elevation of coastal marshes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. This study investigates spatial variations in sediment distribution on McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge, Texas, USA, which is in the geographic region that was impacted by the right-front quadrant of Hurricane Ike. This research builds upon a prior study on hurricane storm surge sedimentation in which the sediment deposits from hurricanes&#8217; Audrey, Carla, Rita, and Ike were identified on a marsh transect on McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge. The purpose of this study was to discover how hurricane storm surge sedimentation spatially varies in relation to the landfall location of Hurricane Ike. Fieldwork conducted in 2017-2018 involved digging shallow pits on four coastal marsh transects between Sabine Pass, Texas and High Island, Texas. Elevations were measured at each pit site along all four transects using a telescopic lens and stadia rod. The transects extend 880-1630 meters, with pit sites beginning near the coastline and extending landward. Results obtained in the field indicate that the Hurricane Ike sediment deposit has been found on all four transects, and that the deposit decreases in thickness moving landward along each transect. Furthermore, the observational results of this study were used in Regression Analyses to model hurricane storm surge sediment deposit thickness based on pit site distance inland, pit site elevation, and distance from the landfall of Hurricane Ike. Moreover, Analysis of Variance revealed whether distance inland, distance from landfall location, and the interaction between distance inland and distance from landfall location had any significant effect on storm surge deposit thickness. Actual sediment deposit thicknesses measured in the field were compared to the Regression and Analysis of Variance results. Results show that the Power Law Curve from the Regression Analyses was the most robust predictor of pit site sediment thickness based on distance inland, with an R2 value of 0.538. Additionally, the Regression and Analysis of Variance results revealed that transect distance from the landfall location of Hurricane Ike was the only independent variable that could not predict or explain storm surge deposit thickness; which is very likely due to all four transects being in the right-front quadrant of landfalling Hurricane Ike. The findings of this study provide improved understanding of the spatial relationship between storm surge sedimentation and storm surge heights, valuable knowledge about the sedimentary response of coastal marshes subject to storm surge deposition, and useful guidance to public policy aimed at combating the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline.&#160;

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IMMEDIATE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE ON THE TEXAS COAST

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v32.management.14 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 1 (32) ◽

pp. 14 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Billy L Edge ◽

Lesley Ewing ◽

Robert G Dean ◽

James M Kaihatu ◽

Margery F Overton ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gulf Of Mexico ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Management ◽

Hurricane Ike ◽

Property Damage ◽

Texas Coast ◽

American Society ◽

One Year ◽

High Winds ◽

Civil Engineers

Hurricane Ike was a large storm as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico. When it entered into Texas it caused a storm surge of up to 4 m and substantial waves with high winds represented by a Category 2 hurricane. The storm caused extensive flooding and erosion which led to significant property damage on Boliver Peninsula and on Galveston Island. COPRI (Coasts, Oceans, Ports and Rivers Institute) of the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) sponsored a team of engineers and scientists to observe the coast and collect perishable data approximately one month after the storm. One of the main conclusions from the inspection of buildings was that elevation was a key determinant for survival. Members of the team returned for another visit approximately one year later to observe how the recovery had progressed. Those observations show some redevelopment but also some serious flaws in the coastal management implementation.

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INUNDATION AND DESTRUCTION ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING HURRICANE IKE

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v32.management.15 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 1 (32) ◽

pp. 15

Author(s):

Andrew Kennedy ◽

Matild Dosa ◽

Franciso Zarama ◽

Uriah Gravois ◽

Brian Zachry ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gulf Of Mexico ◽

Wave Action ◽

Hurricane Ike ◽

Us History ◽

Strong Wave ◽

Coriolis Effects ◽

Catastrophic Damage

Hurricane Ike was one of the most destructive storms in US history, and caused catastrophic damage to the Bolivar Peninsula, Texas, with over 4.7m measured surge at the Gulf of Mexico shoreline. This surge began unusually early, reaching 2.5m at 25 hours before landfall while winds were both weak and shore-parallel. The strong forerunner surge resulted from Coriolis effects on the wind-driven alongshelf current, and occurred previously in the similarly destructive 1900 and 1915 Galveston Hurricanes. In onshore areas with strong wave action, damage was near-total to buildings whose flooring systems could be reached by wave crests, while slightly more elevated buildings survived almost unscathed. There was much less of a correlation between survival and elevation in areas with small waves.

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An Examination of Model Track Forecast Errors for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-10-05053.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 26 (6) ◽

pp. 848-867 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Michael J. Brennan ◽

Sharanya J. Majumdar

Keyword(s):

Gulf Of Mexico ◽

Short Wave ◽

Track Forecast ◽

Forecast Errors ◽

Multiple Sources ◽

Hurricane Ike ◽

Initial State ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Wave Trough ◽

Subtropical Ridge

Abstract Sources of dynamical model track error for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico are examined. Deterministic and ensemble model output are compared against National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses to identify potential critical features associated with the motion of Ike and its eventual landfall along the upper Texas coast. Several potential critical features were identified, including the subtropical ridge north of Ike and several synoptic-scale short-wave troughs and ridges over central and western North America, and Tropical Storm Lowell in the eastern North Pacific. Using the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation scheme, the operational GSI analysis from the 0000 UTC 9 September 2008 cycle was modified by perturbing each of these features individually, and then integrating the GFS model using the perturbed initial state. The track of Ike from each of the perturbed runs was compared to the operational GFS and it was found that the greatest improvements to the track forecast were associated with weakening the subtropical ridge north of Ike and strengthening a midlevel short-wave trough over California. A GFS run beginning with an analysis where both of these features were perturbed produced a greater track improvement than either did individually. The results suggest that multiple sources of error exist in the initial states of the operational models, and that the correction of these errors in conjunction with reliable ensemble forecasts would lead to improved forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and their accompanying uncertainty.

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