Temperature-based model for predicting univoltine brood proportions in spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

2001 ◽  
Vol 133 (6) ◽  
pp. 827-841 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Matthew Hansen ◽  
Barbara J. Bentz ◽  
David L. Turner
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Forest Planning ◽  
Dendroctonus Rufipennis ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Funnel Trap ◽  
Spruce Mortality ◽  
Cumulative Time

AbstractThe spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), has possible life cycles of 1 or 2 years. Empirical and experimental evidence suggest that temperature is the primary regulator of these life-history pathways. These different life cycles potentially result in substantial differences in population dynamics and subsequent spruce mortality. A multiyear field study was conducted in Utah, Colorado, and Alaska, to monitor spruce beetle development under a variety of field conditions with concurrent air temperature measurements. This information was used to model the tree- or stand-level proportion of univoltine beetles as a function of air temperature. Temperatures were summarized as averages, cumulative time, and accumulated heat units above specified thresholds over various seasonal intervals. Sampled proportions of univoltine insects were regressed against the summarized temperature values in logistic models. The best predictive variable, as evaluated by Akaike’s Information Criterion, was found to be cumulative hours above a threshold of 17 °C elapsed from 40 to 90 days following peak adult funnel-trap captures. Because the model can be used to forecast trends in spruce beetle populations and associated spruce mortality, it is a tool for forest planning.

Comparison of reproductive capacity among univoltine, semivoltine, and re-emerged parent spruce beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

2003 ◽  
Vol 135 (5) ◽  
pp. 697-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Matthew Hansen ◽  
Barbara J. Bentz
Keyword(s):  
Lipid Content ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Dry Weight ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Reproductive Capacity ◽  
Brood Production ◽  
Dendroctonus Rufipennis ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Parent Groups ◽  
Spruce Mortality

AbstractNew spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), adults of univoltine and semivoltine life cycles, as well as re-emerged parent beetles, were laboratory-tested for differences in reproductive capacity and brood characteristics. Parameters measured from the three groups include dry weight, lipid content, and egg production. Brood characteristics measured include egg length, development rates, and survival densities. Although there were some differences in dry weight and lipid content, females from the univoltine, semivoltine, and re-emerged parent groups did not greatly differ in egg production. Egg length was slightly smaller for eggs from univoltine parents, but other measured brood characteristics did not differ among the three parent groups, including the density of the surviving brood. In a field study, re-emerged parent beetles were determined to be flight capable. These findings imply that populations with univoltine broods will have higher growth rates than semivoltine populations. Consequently, the presence of univoltine broods, which is weather dependent, increases the risk of a beetle outbreak or can accelerate the rate of spruce mortality in an established outbreak. These results also indicate that re-emerged parent beetles can contribute substantially to brood production. Suppression strategies can be more effective if managers consider the ecological consequences of brood production from the three parent groups.

Evaluation of funnel traps for estimating tree mortality and associated population phase of spruce beetle in Utah

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 2574-2584 ◽  
Author(s):  
E Matthew Hansen ◽  
Barbara J Bentz ◽  
A Steven Munson ◽  
James C Vandygriff ◽  
David L Turner
Keyword(s):  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Classification Tree ◽  
Recursive Partitioning ◽  
Dendroctonus Rufipennis ◽  
Beetle Population ◽  
Engelmann Spruce ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Funnel Trap ◽  
Spruce Mortality

Although funnel traps are routinely used to manage bark beetles, little is known regarding the relationship between trap captures and tree mortality near the trap. We conducted a 4 year study in Utah to examine the correlation between funnel-trap captures of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) and mortality of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) within a 10 ha block of the trap. Using recursive partitioning tree analyses, rules were developed for predicting spruce mortality and associated levels of beetle population phase (endemic or epidemic), in the current year and subsequent year, for a given level of trap captures. Although model predictions of infested-stem counts had large variances, our results suggest that funnel-trap captures can be reliably used to estimate relative levels of tree mortality, expressed as spruce beetle population phase. Classification-tree analyses indicate that captures of ~842 spruce beetles during a season (late May to mid-August) from a single funnel trap represent a threshold between endemic (<2 mass-attacked stems/ha) and epidemic conditions (≥2 mass-attacked stems/ha) for either the current or the subsequent year relative to deployment of the funnel trap. Likewise, a lack of infested hosts within 10 m of a funnel trap, also known as spillover, was associated with endemic conditions, whereas trees attacked near the trap correlated with epidemic conditions.

scholarly journals Parametric and Semiparametric Estimations of Bivariate Truncated Type I Generalized Logistic Models driven from Copulas

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lamya A Baharith
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Type I ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Study ◽  
Generalized Logistic Distribution ◽  
Weibull Models

Truncated type I generalized logistic distribution has been used in a variety of applications. In this article, a new bivariate truncated type I generalized logistic (BTTGL) distributional models driven from three different copula functions are introduced. A study of some properties is illustrated. Parametric and semiparametric methods are used to estimate the parameters of the BTTGL models. Maximum likelihood and inference function for margin estimates of the BTTGL parameters are compared with semiparametric estimates using real data set. Further, a comparison between BTTGL, bivariate generalized exponential and bivariate exponentiated Weibull models is conducted using Akaike information criterion and the maximized log-likelihood. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out for different values of the parameters and different sample sizes to compare the performance of parametric and semiparametric estimators based on relative mean square error.

scholarly journals The use of the nonlinear models in the growth of pears of ‘Shinseiki’ cultivar

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thais Destefani Ribeiro ◽  
Taciana Villela Savian ◽  
Tales Jesus Fernandes ◽  
Joel Augusto Muniz
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Fruit Weight ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Pear Fruit ◽  
Asian Pear ◽  
Residual Correlations

ABSTRACT: The goal of this study was to elucidate the growth and development of the Asian pear fruit, on the grounds of length, diameter and fresh weight determined over time, using the non-linear Gompertz and Logistic models. The specifications of the models were assessed utilizing the R statistical software, via the least squares method and iterative Gauss-Newton process (DRAPER & SMITH, 2014). The residual standard deviation, adjusted coefficient of determination and the Akaike information criterion were used to compare the models. The residual correlations, observed in the data for length and diameter, were modeled using the second-order regression process to render the residuals independent. The logistic model was highly suitable in demonstrating the data, revealing the Asian pear fruit growth to be sigmoid in shape, showing remarkable development for three variables. It showed an average of up to 125 days for length and diameter and 140 days for fresh fruit weight, with values of 72mm length, 80mm diameter and 224g heavy fat.

scholarly journals Mathematical models to describe the growth curves of white-egg layers

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 1327
Author(s):  
Cleber Franklin Santos de Oliveira ◽  
João Marcos Novais Tavares ◽  
Gerusa Da Silva Salles Corrêa ◽  
Bruno Serpa Vieira ◽  
Silvana Alves Pedrozo Vitalino Barbosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Computer Software ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Population Densities

The aim of this study was to compare mathematical models describing growth curves of white-egg layers at different population densities. To fit the models, 4,000 growing white-egg layers were utilized. The experimental design was completely randomized, with population densities of 71, 68, 65, 62, and 59 birds per cage in the starter phase and 19, 17, 15, 13, and 11 birds per cage in the grower phase, with 10 replicates each. Birds were weighed weekly to determine the average body weight and the weight gain. Gompertz and Logistic models were utilized to estimate their growth. The data analysis was carried out using the PROC NLMIXED procedure of the SAS® statistical computer software to estimate the parameters of the equation because mixed models were employed. The mean squared error, the coefficient of determination, and Akaike’s information criterion were used to evaluate the quality of fit of the models. The studied models converged for the description of the growth of the birds at the different densities studied, showing that they were appropriate for estimating the growth of white-egg layers housed at different population densities. The Gompertz model showed a better fit than the Logistic model.

Prepupal diapause and instar IV developmental rates of the spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 1347-1357 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Matthew Hansen ◽  
Barbara J. Bentz ◽  
James A. Powell ◽  
David R. Gray ◽  
James C. Vandygriff
Keyword(s):  
Dendroctonus Rufipennis ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Developmental Rates

DIFFERENTIAL BIOACTIVITY OF CONOPHTHORIN ON FOUR SPECIES OF NORTH AMERICAN BARK BEETLES (COLEOPTERA: SCOLYTIDAE)

2000 ◽  
Vol 132 (5) ◽  
pp. 649-653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dezene P.W. Huber ◽  
John H. Borden ◽  
Nicole L. Jeans-Williams ◽  
Regine Gries
Keyword(s):  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Dependent Manner ◽  
Dendroctonus Pseudotsugae ◽  
Dendroctonus Rufipennis ◽  
Pine Engraver ◽  
Dryocoetes Confusus ◽  
Baited Traps ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Dose Dependent

AbstractThe angiosperm bark volatile, conophthorin, was tested at release rates of 3.0 and 0.3 mg/24 h against the Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, the spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), the pine engraver, Ips pint (Say), and the western balsam bark beetle, Dryocoetes confusus Swaine (all Coleoptera: Scolytidae). The responses of D. pseudotsugae, I. pini, and (in one of two experiments) female D. confusus to attractant-baited traps were disrupted by conophthorin in a dose-dependent manner. Dendroctonus rufipennis was not disrupted by conophthorin. Our results extend the repellent bioactivity of conophthorin to Ips DeGeer spp. and confirm earlier experiments with D. pseudotsugae. Conophthorin may have some utility in protecting susceptible timber from bark beetle attack.

The effect of fires on susceptibility of subalpine forests to a 19th century spruce beetle outbreak in western Colorado

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 2974-2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Kulakowski ◽  
Thomas T Veblen
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Abies Lasiocarpa ◽  
Subalpine Forests ◽  
Dendroctonus Rufipennis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Engelmann Spruce ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
History Of ◽  
Colorado Rocky Mountains

In the subalpine forests of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, research on disturbances that have occurred over the past several decades has shown that prior occurrence of disturbances can alter the extent and severity of subsequent disturbances. In the current study, we consider how fire history affected stand susceptibility to a mid-19th century spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby 1837) outbreak. Twenty-one sites were randomly located in an Engelmann spruce – subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm. – Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) forest across ~2000 km2 of the Grand Mesa area, Colorado. At each site, dendrochronological methods were used to reconstruct the history of severe fires and beetle outbreak. Stand-origin dates were estimated by collecting increment cores from 20–27 of the largest trees at each sample site. The beetle outbreak was reconstructed based on coincident releases among nonhost trees that survived the outbreak. Forest stands originated following severe fires in ca. 1790, ca. 1740, and ca. 1700. The 1840's outbreak affected 67% of these stands. Stands that initiated following the ca. 1790 fire were less susceptible to the outbreak than older stands. These findings indicate that stand-replacing fires have mitigated susceptibility to outbreaks of spruce beetles not only during recent outbreaks, but also over the past centuries.

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