Docking Two Models of Insurgency Growth

Author(s):  
Michael Jaye ◽  
Robert Burks

The use of agent-based simulations (ABS) in social science applications presents validation challenges. In this study, the authors use two theories for the growth of rebellion, one an ABS and the other implemented as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Epstein’s (2001) theory for the rise of rebellion serves as one conceptual model. The authors implement this theory in NetLogo, with several modifications. The second conceptual model likens the spread of an insurgency to that of an infectious disease, specifically the susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model. The authors find that the similarity of the ODE model results to those obtained from certain parameters of the ABS implementation serves as a form of model validation. The term used for this type of validation is docking. In addition, other results obtained from the ABS – not directly attainable from the ODE model but which match observed phenomenon in socio-political systems – also demonstrates operational validity.

1999 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 547-553
Author(s):  
SHAOGUANG ZHANG ◽  
ZHONGCAN OUYANG ◽  
JIXING LIU

So far, two methods are often used in solving the equilibrium shapes of vesicles. One method is by starting with the general shape equation and restricting it to the shapes with particular symmetry. The other method is by assuming the symmetry and topology of the vesicle first and treating it with the calculus of variation to get a set of ordinary differential equations. The relationship between these two methods in the case of cylindrical vesicles, and a comparison of the results are given.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hazizah Mohd Ijam ◽  
Mohamed Suleiman ◽  
Ahmad Fadly Nurullah Rasedee ◽  
Norazak Senu ◽  
Ali Ahmadian ◽  
...  

We describe the development of a 2-point block backward difference method (2PBBD) for solving system of nonstiff higher-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) directly. The method computes the approximate solutions at two points simultaneously within an equidistant block. The integration coefficients that are used in the method are obtained only once at the start of the integration. Numerical results are presented to compare the performances of the method developed with 1-point backward difference method (1PBD) and 2-point block divided difference method (2PBDD). The result indicated that, for finer step sizes, this method performs better than the other two methods, that is, 1PBD and 2PBDD.


1979 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 631-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. G. Simmonds ◽  
A. Libai

A set of first-order ordinary differential equations with initial conditions is derived for the exact, nonlinear, inextensional deformation of a loaded plate bounded by two straight edges and two curved ones. The analysis extends earlier approximate work of Mansfield and Kleeman, Ashwell, and Lin, Lin, and Mazelsky. For a plate clamped along one straight edge and subject to a force and couple along the other, there are 13 differential equations, but an independent set of 9 may be split off. In a subsequent paper, we consider alternate forms of these 9 equations for plates that twist as they deform. Their structure and solutions are compared to Mansfield’s approximate equations and particular attention is given to tip-loaded triangular plates.


2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Eduardo Nápoles Valdez

In this paper, we present, briefly, the bifront character of the ordinary differential equations (ODE): on the one hand the theoretical specialization in different areas and on the other, the multiplicity of applications of the same, as well as some reflections on the development of a course of ode in this context.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0257995
Author(s):  
Alejandro Bernardin ◽  
Alejandro J. Martínez ◽  
Tomas Perez-Acle

When pharmaceutical interventions are unavailable to deal with an epidemic outbreak, adequate management of communication strategies can be key to reduce the contagion risks. On the one hand, accessibility to trustworthy and timely information, whilst on the other, the adoption of preventive behaviors may be both crucial. However, despite the abundance of communication strategies, their effectiveness has been scarcely evaluated or merely circumscribed to the scrutiny of public affairs. To study the influence of communication strategies on the spreading dynamics of an infectious disease, we implemented a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-dead (SEIRD) epidemiological model, using an agent-based approach. Agents in our systems can obtain information modulating their behavior from two sources: (i) through the local interaction with other neighboring agents and, (ii) from a central entity delivering information with a certain periodicity. In doing so, we highlight how global information delivered from a central entity can reduce the impact of an infectious disease and how informing even a small fraction of the population has a remarkable impact, when compared to not informing the population at all. Moreover, having a scheme of delivering daily messages makes a stark difference on the reduction of cases, compared to the other evaluated strategies, denoting that daily delivery of information produces the largest decrease in the number of cases. Furthermore, when the information spreading relies only on local interactions between agents, and no central entity takes actions along the dynamics, then the epidemic spreading is virtually independent of the initial amount of informed agents. On top of that, we found that local communication plays an important role in an intermediate regime where information coming from a central entity is scarce. As a whole, our results highlight the importance of proper communication strategies, both accurate and daily, to tackle epidemic outbreaks.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.J. Sego ◽  
Josua O. Aponte-Serrano ◽  
Juliano F. Gianlupi ◽  
James A. Glazier

AbstractThe biophysics of an organism span scales from subcellular to organismal and include spatial processes like diffusion of molecules, cell migration, and flow of intravenous fluids. Mathematical biology seeks to explain biophysical processes in mathematical terms at, and across, all relevant spatial and temporal scales. While non-spatial, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are often used and readily calibrated to experimental data, they do not explicitly represent spatial and stochastic features of a biological system, limiting their insights and applications. Spatial models describe biological systems with spatial information but are mathematically complex and computationally expensive, which limits the ability to calibrate and deploy them. In this work we develop a formal method for deriving cell-based, spatial, multicellular models from ODE models of population dynamics in biological systems, and vice-versa. We provide examples of generating spatiotemporal, multicellular models from ODE models of viral infection and immune response. In these models the determinants of agreement of spatial and non-spatial models are the degree of spatial heterogeneity in viral production and rates of extracellular viral diffusion and decay. We show how ODE model parameters can implicitly represent spatial parameters, and cell-based spatial models can generate uncertain predictions through sensitivity to stochastic cellular events, which is not a feature of ODE models. Using our method, we can test ODE models in a multicellular, spatial context and translate information to and from non-spatial and spatial models, which help to employ spatiotemporal multicellular models using calibrated ODE model parameters, investigate objects and processes implicitly represented by ODE model terms and parameters, and improve the reproducibility of spatial, stochastic models. We hope to employ our method to generate new ODE model terms from spatiotemporal, multicellular models, recast popular ODE models on a cellular basis, and generate better models for critical applications where spatial and stochastic features affect outcomes.Statement of SignificanceOrdinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model and efficiently simulate multicellular systems without explicit spatial information, while spatial models permit explicit spatiotemporal modeling but are mathematically complicated and computationally expensive. In this work we develop a method to generate stochastic, agent-based, multiscale models of multicellular systems with spatial resolution at the cellular level according to non-spatial ODE models. We demonstrate how to directly translate model terms and parameters between ODE and spatial models and apply non-spatial model terms to boundary conditions using examples of viral infection modeling, and show how spatial models can interrogate implicitly represented biophysical mechanisms in non-spatial models. We discuss strategies for co-developing spatial and non-spatial models and reconciling disagreements between them.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Amir Mosavi

AbstractExtension of SIR type models has been reported in a number of publications in mathematics community. But little is done on validation of these models to fit adequately with multiple clinical data of an infectious disease. In this paper, we introduce SEIR-PAD model to assess susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, super-spreader, asymptomatic infected, and deceased populations. SEIR-PAD model consists of 7-set of ordinary differential equations with 8 unknown coefficients which are solved numerically in MATLAB using an optimization algorithm to fit 4-set of COVID-19 clinical data consist of cumulative populations of infected, deceased, recovered, and susceptible. Trends of COVID-19 in Trends in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are successfully predicted using available data from outbreak until 23rd June 2020. Promising results of SEIR-PAD model provide insight into better management of COVID-19 pandemic in GCC countries.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi ◽  
Ashtian Malayer ◽  
Amir Mosavi

Extension of SIR type models has been reported in a number of publications in mathematics community. But little is done on validation of these models to fit adequately with multiple clinical data of an infectious disease. In this paper, we introduce SEIR-PAD model to assess susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, super-spreader, asymptomatic infected, and deceased populations. SEIR-PAD model consists of 7-set of ordinary differential equations with 8 unknown coefficients which are solved numerically in MATLAB using an optimization algorithm. Four set of COVID-19 clinical data consist of cumulative populations of infected, deceased, recovered, and susceptible are used from start of the outbreak until 23rd June 2020 to fit with SEIR-PAD model results. Results for trends of COVID-19 in GCC countries indicate that the disease may be terminated after 200 to 300 days from start of the outbreak depends on current measures and policies. SEIR-PAD model provides a robust and strong tool to predict trends of COVID-19 for better management and/or foreseeing effects of certain enforcing laws by governments, health organizations or policy makers.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 77-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
LAZARO GIMENA ◽  
PEDRO GONZAGA ◽  
FAUSTINO GIMENA

This paper deals with curved beams with polynomial free geometry. The problem is approached analytically and the differential equations that govern the mechanical behavior of curved beams are presented. A system of twelve linear ordinary differential equations is solved using either an analytical or a customized numerical method with boundary conditions. Results of the different components of forces, moments, rotations, and displacements are given and plotted in the examples for different polynomial-shaped beams of the fourth degree. It is concluded from the present analyses that the parabolic shape has better response to distributed loads than the other polynomial-shaped beams considered.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi ◽  
Mahdi Ashtian Malayer ◽  
Amir Mosavi

AbstractExtension of SIR type models has been reported in a number of publications in mathematics community. But little is done on validation of these models to fit adequately with multiple clinical data of an infectious disease. In this paper, we introduce SEIR-PAD model to assess susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, super-spreader, asymptomatic infected, and deceased populations. SEIR-PAD model consists of 7-set of ordinary differential equations with 8 unknown coefficients which are solved numerically in MATLAB using an optimization algorithm. Four set of COVID-19 clinical data consist of cumulative populations of infected, deceased, recovered, and susceptible are used from start of the outbreak until 23rd June 2020 to fit with SEIR-PAD model results. Results for trends of COVID-19 in GCC countries indicate that the disease may be terminated after 200 to 300 days from start of the outbreak depends on current measures and policies. SEIR-PAD model provides a robust and strong tool to predict trends of COVID-19 for better management and/or foreseeing effects of certain enforcing laws by governments, health organizations or policy makers.


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