ANN-RBF Hybrid Model for Spatiotemporal Estimation of Monthly Precipitation Case Study

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid Nourani ◽  
Ehsan Entezari ◽  
Peyman Yousefi
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Spatial Estimation ◽  
Box Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Temporal Estimation ◽  
Monthly Precipitation Data

For estimation of monthly precipitation, considering the intricacy and lack of accurate knowledge about the physical relationships, black box models usually are used because they produce more accurate values. In this article, a hybrid black box model, namely ANN-RBF, is proposed to estimate spatiotemporal value of monthly precipitation. In the first step a Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) network is used for temporal estimation of monthly precipitation using the value of precipitation in previous months in the same gauging station. In the second step, Radial Basis Function (RBF) is used to estimate the value of precipitation in specific month and a spatial point within the study region, considering the value of monthly precipitation in other stations. In this regard, three commonly used RBFs’ Multi Quadric (MQ), Inverse Multi Quadric (IMQ) and Gaussian (Ga), are used for spatial estimation. Finally, the combination of these two steps leads to ANN-RBF hybrid model. The model is examined using monthly precipitation data of Ardabil plain located north western of Iran. All results show the reliable accuracy of ANN-RBF model for spatiotemporal estimation of precipitation. Furthermore, IMQ RBF yields more accurate results for spatial estimation in comparison with two other RBFs. The cross-validation scheme was also employed to validate the spatial estimation performance of the proposed model.

scholarly journals Modeling of Emergency Supply Scheduling Problem Based on Reliability and Its Solution Algorithm under Variable Road Network after Sudden-Onset Disasters

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tinggui Chen ◽  
Shiwen Wu ◽  
Jianjun Yang ◽  
Guodong Cong ◽  
Gongfa Li
Keyword(s):  
Road Network ◽  
Road Networks ◽  
Sudden Onset ◽  
The Road ◽  
Bee Colony ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
In Transit ◽  
Emergency Supply

It is common that many roads in disaster areas are damaged and obstructed after sudden-onset disasters. The phenomenon often comes with escalated traffic deterioration that raises the time and cost of emergency supply scheduling. Fortunately, repairing road network will shorten the time of in-transit distribution. In this paper, according to the characteristics of emergency supplies distribution, an emergency supply scheduling model based on multiple warehouses and stricken locations is constructed to deal with the failure of part of road networks in the early postdisaster phase. The detailed process is as follows. When part of the road networks fail, we firstly determine whether to repair the damaged road networks, and then a model of reliable emergency supply scheduling based on bi-level programming is proposed. Subsequently, an improved artificial bee colony algorithm is presented to solve the problem mentioned above. Finally, through a case study, the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm are verified.

scholarly journals Branch and Bound Algorithm Based on Prediction Error of Metamodel for Computational Electromagnetics

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 6749
Author(s):  
Reda El Bechari ◽  
Stéphane Brisset ◽  
Stéphane Clénet ◽  
Frédéric Guyomarch ◽  
Jean Claude Mipo
Keyword(s):  
Branch And Bound ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Global Solutions ◽  
Black Box ◽  
High Fidelity ◽  
Electromagnetic Devices ◽  
Box Models ◽  
Element Simulation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Black Box Models

Metamodels proved to be a very efficient strategy for optimizing expensive black-box models, e.g., Finite Element simulation for electromagnetic devices. It enables the reduction of the computational burden for optimization purposes. However, the conventional approach of using metamodels presents limitations such as the cost of metamodel fitting and infill criteria problem-solving. This paper proposes a new algorithm that combines metamodels with a branch and bound (B&B) strategy. However, the efficiency of the B&B algorithm relies on the estimation of the bounds; therefore, we investigated the prediction error given by metamodels to predict the bounds. This combination leads to high fidelity global solutions. We propose a comparison protocol to assess the approach’s performances with respect to those of other algorithms of different categories. Then, two electromagnetic optimization benchmarks are treated. This paper gives practical insights into algorithms that can be used when optimizing electromagnetic devices.

scholarly journals Controlling Safety of Artificial Intelligence-Based Systems in Healthcare

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Davahli ◽  
Waldemar Karwowski ◽  
Krzysztof Fiok ◽  
Thomas Wan ◽  
Hamid R. Parsaei
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Healthcare Industry ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Controlling System ◽  
Box Models ◽  
Key Dimensions ◽  
Value Model ◽  
And Control

In response to the need to address the safety challenges in the use of artificial intelligence (AI), this research aimed to develop a framework for a safety controlling system (SCS) to address the AI black-box mystery in the healthcare industry. The main objective was to propose safety guidelines for implementing AI black-box models to reduce the risk of potential healthcare-related incidents and accidents. The system was developed by adopting the multi-attribute value model approach (MAVT), which comprises four symmetrical parts: extracting attributes, generating weights for the attributes, developing a rating scale, and finalizing the system. On the basis of the MAVT approach, three layers of attributes were created. The first level contained six key dimensions, the second level included 14 attributes, and the third level comprised 78 attributes. The key first level dimensions of the SCS included safety policies, incentives for clinicians, clinician and patient training, communication and interaction, planning of actions, and control of such actions. The proposed system may provide a basis for detecting AI utilization risks, preventing incidents from occurring, and developing emergency plans for AI-related risks. This approach could also guide and control the implementation of AI systems in the healthcare industry.

scholarly journals Hybrid Model of IVFRN-BWM and Robust Goal Programming in Agile and Flexible Supply Chain, a Case Study: Automobile Industry

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 71481-71492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayad Hendalianpour ◽  
Mahnaz Fakhrabadi ◽  
Xiaobo Zhang ◽  
Mohammad Reza Feylizadeh ◽  
Mehdi Gheisari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Automobile Industry

scholarly journals A New Approach to Inform Restoration and Management Decisions for Sustainable Apiculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6109
Author(s):  
Joanne Lee Picknoll ◽  
Pieter Poot ◽  
Michael Renton
Keyword(s):  
Floral Resources ◽  
Pollination Services ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Honey Production ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Colony Loss ◽  
Supply Potential ◽  
Australian Case ◽  
Stocking Rates

Habitat loss has reduced the available resources for apiarists and is a key driver of poor colony health, colony loss, and reduced honey yields. The biggest challenge for apiarists in the future will be meeting increasing demands for pollination services, honey, and other bee products with limited resources. Targeted landscape restoration focusing on high-value or high-yielding forage could ensure adequate floral resources are available to sustain the growing industry. Tools are currently needed to evaluate the likely productivity of potential sites for restoration and inform decisions about plant selections and arrangements and hive stocking rates, movements, and placements. We propose a new approach for designing sites for apiculture, centred on a model of honey production that predicts how changes to plant and hive decisions affect the resource supply, potential for bees to collect resources, consumption of resources by the colonies, and subsequently, amount of honey that may be produced. The proposed model is discussed with reference to existing models, and data input requirements are discussed with reference to an Australian case study area. We conclude that no existing model exactly meets the requirements of our proposed approach, but components of several existing models could be combined to achieve these needs.

scholarly journals Incorporating Landslide Spatial Information and Correlated Features among Conditioning Factors for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2166
Author(s):  
Xin Yang ◽  
Rui Liu ◽  
Mei Yang ◽  
Jingjue Chen ◽  
Tianqiang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Proposed Model

This study proposed a new hybrid model based on the convolutional neural network (CNN) for making effective use of historical datasets and producing a reliable landslide susceptibility map. The proposed model consists of two parts; one is the extraction of landslide spatial information using two-dimensional CNN and pixel windows, and the other is to capture the correlated features among the conditioning factors using one-dimensional convolutional operations. To evaluate the validity of the proposed model, two pure CNN models and the previously used methods of random forest and a support vector machine were selected as the benchmark models. A total of 621 earthquake-triggered landslides in Ludian County, China and 14 conditioning factors derived from the topography, geological, hydrological, geophysical, land use and land cover data were used to generate a geospatial dataset. The conditioning factors were then selected and analyzed by a multicollinearity analysis and the frequency ratio method. Finally, the trained model calculated the landslide probability of each pixel in the study area and produced the resultant susceptibility map. The results indicated that the hybrid model benefitted from the features extraction capability of the CNN and achieved high-performance results in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and statistical indices. Moreover, the proposed model had 6.2% and 3.7% more improvement than the two pure CNN models in terms of the AUC, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model is capable of accurately mapping landslide susceptibility and providing a promising method for hazard mitigation and land use planning. Additionally, it is recommended to be applied to other areas of the world.

Elastic Averaging in Flexure Mechanisms: A Muliti-Beam Parallelogram Flexure Case-Study

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shorya Awtar ◽  
Edip Sevincer
Keyword(s):  
Mechanism Design ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Nonlinear Load ◽  
Geometric Imperfections ◽  
Geometric Imperfection ◽  
Flexure Mechanism ◽  
Important Concern ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Geometric Arrangements

Over-constraint is an important concern in mechanism design because it can lead to a loss in desired mobility. In distributed-compliance flexure mechanisms, this problem is alleviated due to the phenomenon of elastic averaging, thus enabling performance-enhancing geometric arrangements that are otherwise unrealizable. The principle of elastic averaging is illustrated in this paper by means of a multi-beam parallelogram flexure mechanism. In a lumped-compliance configuration, this mechanism is prone to over-constraint in the presence of nominal manufacturing and assembly errors. However, with an increasing degree of distributed-compliance, the mechanism is shown to become more tolerant to such geometric imperfections. The nonlinear load-stiffening and elasto-kinematic effects in the constituent beams have an important role to play in the over-constraint and elastic averaging characteristics of this mechanism. Therefore, a parametric model that incorporates these nonlinearities is utilized in predicting the influence of a representative geometric imperfection on the primary motion stiffness of the mechanism. The proposed model utilizes a beam generalization so that varying degrees of distributed compliance are captured using a single geometric parameter.

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