Cost Performance Estimation in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Time Series

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa Salari ◽  
Nooshin Yousefi ◽  
Mohhmad Mahdi Asgary
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Linguistic Terms ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Proposed Model

In this paper, the authors develop a model to estimate future performance of construction projects. For the purpose of estimation, fuzzy times series models are used as an effective approach in estimation process. Furthermore, linguistic terms are applied to interpret the fuzzy-based results. The proposed model can assists project managers to develop their knowledge concerning the future aspects of project cost performance. It also provides the early warning of weak upcoming performance of project and extends the feasible time for corrective actions. Eventually, a small example has been provided to illustrate how the new model can be implemented in reality.

Cost Performance Estimation in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Time Series

2016 ◽  
pp. 359-370
Author(s):  
Mostafa Salari ◽  
Nooshin Yousefi ◽  
Mohhmad Mahdi Asgary
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Proposed Model

In this chapter, the authors develop a model to estimate future performance of construction projects. For the purpose of estimation, fuzzy times series models are used as an effective approach in estimation process. Furthermore, linguistic terms are applied to interpret the fuzzy-based results. The proposed model can assist project managers to develop their knowledge concerning the future aspects of project cost performance. It also provides the early warning of weak upcoming performance of project and extends the feasible time for corrective actions. Eventually, a small example has been provided to illustrate how the new model can be implemented in reality.

scholarly journals Resource-Based Quality Performance Estimation Method for Construction Operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4122
Author(s):  
Young-Jun Park ◽  
Chang-Yong Yi
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Construction Simulation ◽  
Construction Operations ◽  
Quality Performance ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Performance Indexes ◽  
Reducing Costs

Construction quality is one of the primary management objectives relating to duration and cost for construction projects. Project managers struggle with minimizing duration and cost while maximizing quality for construction projects. In construction projects, duration and cost have management priorities. On the other hand, quality is considered a matter of achievement only when it reaches a certain level. Although the importance of quality control in construction management has been constantly discussed, it has still been sacrificed under the goal of shortening construction duration and reducing costs. This study presents a method for estimating the quantitative quality performance of construction operations in which the level of detail is breaking into the work task level for intuitive quality performance evaluation. For this purpose, quality weights of resources that have a proportional quality importance weight and quality performance indexes of resources are utilized for estimating the quantitative quality performance of construction operations. Quality performance estimation and the resource allocation optimization system is presented and validated using a construction simulation model.

Air quality management using genetic algorithm based heuristic fuzzy time series model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lalit Bhagat ◽  
Gunjan Goyal ◽  
Dinesh C.S. Bisht ◽  
Mangey Ram ◽  
Yigit Kazancoglu
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Quality Management ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Adaptive Time

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a better method for quality management to maintain an essential level of quality in different fields like product quality, service quality, air quality, etc.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, a hybrid adaptive time-variant fuzzy time series (FTS) model with genetic algorithm (GA) has been applied to predict the air pollution index. Fuzzification of data is optimized by GAs. Heuristic value selection algorithm is used for selecting the window size. Two algorithms are proposed for forecasting. First algorithm is used in training phase to compute forecasted values according to the heuristic value selection algorithm. Thus, obtained sequence of heuristics is used for second algorithm in which forecasted values are selected with the help of defined rules.FindingsThe proposed model is able to predict AQI more accurately when an appropriate heuristic value is chosen for the FTS model. It is tested and evaluated on real time air pollution data of two popular tourism cities of India. In the experimental results, it is observed that the proposed model performs better than the existing models.Practical implicationsThe management and prediction of air quality have become essential in our day-to-day life because air quality affects not only the health of human beings but also the health of monuments. This research predicts the air quality index (AQI) of a place.Originality/valueThe proposed method is an improved version of the adaptive time-variant FTS model. Further, a nature-inspired algorithm has been integrated for the selection and optimization of fuzzy intervals.

An Efficient Time Series Forecasting Method Exploiting Fuzziness and Turbulences in Data

2018 ◽  
pp. 1773-1791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prateek Pandey ◽  
Shishir Kumar ◽  
Sandeep Shrivastava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Common Trend ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Degree Of Instability

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in Time Series forecasting. A number of time series forecasting methods have been proposed by various researchers. However, a common trend found in these methods is that they all underperform on a data set that exhibit uneven ups and downs (turbulences). In this paper, a new method based on fuzzy time-series (henceforth FTS) to forecast on the fundament of turbulences in the data set is proposed. The results show that the turbulence based fuzzy time series forecasting is effective, especially, when the available data indicate a high degree of instability. A few benchmark FTS methods are identified from the literature, their limitations and gaps are discussed and it is observed that the proposed method successfully overcome their deficiencies to produce better results. In order to validate the proposed model, a performance comparison with various conventional time series models is also presented.

An Efficient Method for Forecasting Using Fuzzy Time Series

2017 ◽  
pp. 287-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pritpal Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Small Error ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Temperature Forecasting ◽  
The University

Forecasting using fuzzy time series has been applied in several areas including forecasting university enrollments, sales, road accidents, financial forecasting, weather forecasting, etc. Recently, many researchers have paid attention to apply fuzzy time series in time series forecasting problems. In this paper, we present a new model to forecast the enrollments in the University of Alabama and the daily average temperature in Taipei, based on one-factor fuzzy time series. In this model, a new frequency based clustering technique is employed for partitioning the time series data sets into different intervals. For defuzzification function, two new principles are also incorporated in this model. In case of enrollments as well daily temperature forecasting, proposed model exhibits very small error rate.

Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy of Fuzzy Time Series Model Based on Combined Fuzzy C-Mean Clustering with Particle Swam Optimization

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050017
Author(s):  
Nghiem Van Tinh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

Over the past 25 years, numerous fuzzy time series forecasting models have been proposed to deal the complex and uncertain problems. The main factors that affect the forecasting results of these models are partition universe of discourse, creation of fuzzy relationship groups and defuzzification of forecasting output values. So, this study presents a hybrid fuzzy time series forecasting model combined particle swarm optimization (PSO) and fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) for solving issues above. The FCM clustering is used to divide the historical data into initial intervals with unequal size. After generating interval, the historical data is fuzzified into fuzzy sets with the aim to serve for establishing fuzzy relationship groups according to chronological order. Then the information obtained from the fuzzy relationship groups can be used to calculate forecasted value based on a new defuzzification technique. In addition, in order to enhance forecasting accuracy, the PSO algorithm is used for finding optimum interval lengths in the universe of discourse. The proposed model is applied to forecast three well-known numerical datasets (enrolments data of the University of Alabama, the Taiwan futures exchange —TAIFEX data and yearly deaths in car road accidents in Belgium). These datasets are also examined by using some other forecasting models available in the literature. The forecasting results obtained from the proposed model are compared to those produced by the other models. It is observed that the proposed model achieves higher forecasting accuracy than its counterparts for both first—order and high—order fuzzy logical relationship.

scholarly journals A Novel Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model Based on Multiple Linear Regression and Time Series Clustering

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Yanpeng Zhang ◽  
Hua Qu ◽  
Weipeng Wang ◽  
Jihong Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
High Order ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Time Series Clustering ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
High Order Time

Time series forecasting models based on a linear relationship model show great performance. However, these models cannot handle the the data that are incomplete, imprecise, and ambiguous as the interval-based fuzzy time series models since the process of fuzzification is abandoned. This article proposes a novel fuzzy time series forecasting model based on multiple linear regression and time series clustering for forecasting market prices. The proposed model employs a preprocessing to transform the set of fuzzy high-order time series into a set of high-order time series, with synthetic minority oversampling technique. After that, a high-order time series clustering algorithm based on the multiple linear regression model is proposed to cluster dataset of fuzzy time series and to build the linear regression model for each cluster. Then, we make forecasting by calculating the weighted sum of linear regression models’ results. Also, a learning algorithm is proposed to train the whole model, which applies artificial neural network to learn the weights of linear models. The interval-based fuzzification ensures the capability to deal with the uncertainties, and linear model and artificial neural network enable the proposed model to learn both of linear and nonlinear characteristics. The experiment results show that the proposed model improves the average forecasting accuracy rate and is more suitable for dealing with these uncertainties.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model based on Frequency Density and Similarity Measure Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.30) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Nazirah Ramli ◽  
Siti Musleha Ab Mutalib ◽  
Daud Mohamad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Similarity Measure ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy Forecast

This paper proposes an enhanced fuzzy time series (FTS) prediction model that can keep some information under a various level of confidence throughout the forecasting procedure. The forecasting accuracy is developed based on the similarity between the fuzzified historical data and the fuzzy forecast values. No defuzzification process involves in the proposed method. The frequency density method is used to partition the interval, and the area and height type of similarity measure is utilized to get the forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is applied in a numerical example of the unemployment rate in Malaysia. The results show that on average 96.9% of the forecast values are similar to the historical data. The forecasting error based on the distance of the similarity measure is 0.031. The forecasting accuracy can be obtained directly from the forecast values of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers form without experiencing the defuzzification procedure.

scholarly journals High-Order Fuzzy Time Series Model Based on Generalized Fuzzy Logical Relationship

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wangren Qiu ◽  
Xiaodong Liu ◽  
Hailin Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
High Order ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Logical Relationship ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The University ◽  
Fuzzy Logical

In view of techniques for constructing high-order fuzzy time series models, there are three methods which are based on advanced algorithms, computational methods, and grouping the fuzzy logical relationships, respectively. The last kind model has been widely applied and researched for the reason that it is easy to be understood by the decision makers. To improve the fuzzy time series forecasting model, this paper presents a novel high-order fuzzy time series models denoted asGTS(M,N)on the basis of generalized fuzzy logical relationships. Firstly, the paper introduces some concepts of the generalized fuzzy logical relationship and an operation for combining the generalized relationships. Then, the proposed model is implemented in forecasting enrollments of the University of Alabama. As an example of in-depth research, the proposed approach is also applied to forecast the close price of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. Finally, the effects of the number of orders and hierarchies of fuzzy logical relationships on the forecasting results are discussed.

Overall multiobjective optimization of construction projects scheduling using particle swarm

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad Elbeltagi ◽  
Mohammed Ammar ◽  
Haytham Sanad ◽  
Moustafa Kassab
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimized Schedule

Purpose – Developing an optimized project schedule that considers all decision criteria represents a challenge for project managers. The purpose of this paper is to provide a multi-objectives overall optimization model for project scheduling considering time, cost, resources, and cash flow. This development aims to overcome the limitations of optimizing each objective at once resulting of non-overall optimized schedule. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, a multi-objectives overall optimization model for project scheduling is developed using particle swarm optimization with a new evolutionary strategy based on the compromise solution of the Pareto-front. This model optimizes the most important decisions that affect a given project including: time, cost, resources, and cash flow. The study assumes each activity has different execution methods accompanied by different time, cost, cost distribution pattern, and multiple resource utilization schemes. Findings – Applying the developed model to schedule a real-life case study project proves that the proposed model is valid in modeling real-life construction projects and gives important results for schedulers and project managers. The proposed model is expected to help construction managers and decision makers in successfully completing the project on time and reduced budget by utilizing the available information and resources. Originality/value – The paper presented a novel model that has four main characteristics: it produces an optimized schedule considering time, cost, resources, and cash flow simultaneously; it incorporates a powerful particle swarm optimization technique to search for the optimum schedule; it applies multi-objectives optimization rather than single-objective and it uses a unique Pareto-compromise solution to drive the fitness calculations of the evolutionary process.

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