Production of Landslide Susceptibility Map using Bayesian Probability Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halil Akıncı ◽  
Ayşe Yavuz Özalp ◽  
Mehmet Özalp ◽  
Sebahat Temuçin Kılıçer ◽  
Cem Kılıçoğlu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map

Artvin is one of the provinces in Turkey where landslides occur most frequently. There have been numerous landslides characterized as natural disaster recorded across the province. The areas sensitive to landslides across the province should be identified in order to ensure people's safety, to take the necessary measures for reducing any devastating effects of landslides and to make the right decisions in respect to land use planning. In this study, the landslide susceptibility map of the Central district of Artvin was produced by using Bayesian probability model. Parameters including lithology, altitude, slope, aspect, plan and profile curvatures, soil depth, topographic wetness index, land cover, and proximity to the road and stream were used in landslide susceptibility analysis. The landslide susceptibility map produced in this study was validated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) based on area under curve (AUC) analysis. In addition, control landslide locations were used to validate the results of the landslide susceptibility map and the validation analysis resulted in 94.30% accuracy, a reliable outcome for this map that can be useful for general land use planning in Artvin.

scholarly journals Implementing Landslide Susceptibility Map at Watershed Scale of Lompobattang Mountain South Sulawesi, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Abdul Rachman Rasyid ◽  
Netra Prakash Bhandary ◽  
Ryuichi Yatabe
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Predictive Rate

This study attempts to predict future landslide occurrence at watershed scale and calculate the potency of landslide for each sub-watershed at Lompobatang Mountain. In order to produce landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using the statistical model on the watershed scale, we identified the landslide with landslide inventories that occurred in the past, and predict the prospective future landslide occurrence by correlating it with landslide causal factors. In this study, six parameters were used namely, distance from fault, slope, aspect, curvature, distance from river and land use. This research proposed the weight of evidence (WoE) model to produce a landslide susceptibility map. Success and predictive rate were also used to evaluate the accuracy by using Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver operating characteristic (ROC). The result is useful for land use planner and decision makers, in order to devise a strategy for disaster mitigation.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Effect of Hydroseeded Vegetation for Slope Reinforcement

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 995
Author(s):  
Okoli Jude Emeka ◽  
Haslinda Nahazanan ◽  
Bahareh Kalantar ◽  
Zailani Khuzaimah ◽  
Ojogbane Success Sani
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Ground Cover ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Water Runoff ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Topographic Wetness Index ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Ahp Model ◽  
Slope Reinforcement

A landslide is a significant environmental hazard that results in an enormous loss of lives and properties. Studies have revealed that rainfall, soil characteristics, and human errors, such as deforestation, are the leading causes of landslides, reducing soil water infiltration and increasing the water runoff of a slope. This paper introduces vegetation establishment as a low-cost, practical measure for slope reinforcement through the ground cover and the root of the vegetation. This study reveals the level of complexity of the terrain with regards to the evaluation of high and low stability areas and has produced a landslide susceptibility map. For this purpose, 12 conditioning factors, namely slope, aspect, elevation, curvature, hill shade, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), terrain roughness index (TRI), distances to roads, distance to lakes, distance to trees, and build-up, were used through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model to produce landslide susceptibility map. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was used for validation of the results. The area under the curve (AUC) values obtained from the ROC method for the AHP model was 0.865. Four seed samples, namely ryegrass, rye corn, signal grass, and couch, were hydroseeded to determine the vegetation root and ground cover’s effectiveness on stabilization and reinforcement on a high-risk susceptible 65° slope between August and December 2020. The observed monthly vegetation root of couch grass gave the most acceptable result. With a spreading and creeping vegetation ground cover characteristic, ryegrass showed the most acceptable monthly result for vegetation ground cover effectiveness. The findings suggest that the selection of couch species over other species is justified based on landslide control benefits.

scholarly journals Application Of Logistic Regression Method To Produce Landslide Susceptibility Map: A Case Study Of Tetouan Mazari, Morocco

2018 ◽  
Vol 149 ◽  
pp. 02082
Author(s):  
L. Ait Brahim ◽  
M. Elmoulat
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Logistic Regression Method ◽  
Validation Set

The main purpose of this study is to use logistic regression (RL) model to map landslide susceptibility in and around the area of Tetouan Mazari in the Northern Morocco. Parameters, such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, faults, drainage lines, and hillshade, were considered. Landslide susceptibility map was produced using RL method and then compared and validated. Before the modeling and validation, the observed landslides were separated into two groups. The first group was for training, and the other group was for validation steps. The accuracy of the model was measured by fitting them to a validation set of observed landslides. For validation process, the half landslides remaining was used. The final map was classified into five classes: Very High (32%), High (40%), Medium (7%), Low (7%) and Nil (15%). According to these values logistic regression was determined to be one of the most accurate method to generate landslide susceptibility map. Last but not least, logistic regression model can be used to manage and mitigate hazards related to landslides and to aid in land-use planning for the city of Tetouan‥

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility mapping along Tulsipur-Kapurkot road section and its surrounding region using bivariate statistical model

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-93
Author(s):  
Khagendra Poudel ◽  
Amar Deep Regmi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Section

 The Tulsipur-Kapurkot road is the main highway connecting the northern part of Rapti zone to the rest of Nepal. It suffers from numerous mass movements obstructing the traffic every monsoon. This paper describes the development of landslide susceptibility map of the road section and its surrounding regions based on bivariate (frequency ratio) statistical model. Geologically, the road section passes through the rocks of Lesser Himalaya, Siwaliks and Quaternary deposits. Several large and small scale thrusts present within the area making it unstable. For the susceptibility evaluation of the region, first a landslide inventory map consisting more than 187 landslides was prepared. These landslide locations were then randomly partitioned into a ratio of 80/20 for training and validating the models. Second, nine landslide causative factors were prepared. They include slope, aspect, elevation, curvature, geology, land use, distance from fault, distance from river and distance from major road sections. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map of the region was obtained and it was validated using area under curve (AUC). From the analysis, the success rate of the model is found to be 85.18% and predictive accuracy is 78.76%. The resultant susceptibility map shows that the highway in between Ranagaun to Khamari and Ramri to Kapurkot falls within very high to high susceptible zone. Besides, it is observed that the Kapurkot Bazar is also under high landslide susceptible zone. Furthermore, the northern part of the watershed lies in high landslide susceptible zone. The result of this study is useful for land use planning and decision making in landslide management activities.

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility mapping using AHP method and GIS in the peninsula of Tangier (Rif-northern morocco)

2018 ◽  
Vol 149 ◽  
pp. 02084 ◽  
Author(s):  
L Ait Brahim ◽  
M Bousta ◽  
I A Jemmah ◽  
I El Hamdouni ◽  
A ElMahsani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
National Development ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
The Road ◽  
Fault Density

The peninsula of Tangier (Northern Morocco) is submitted to a significant number of landslides each year due to its lithological, structural and morphological complexity; which cause a lot of damage to the road network and other related infrastructure. The main objective of this study is to create a landslide indexed susceptibility map of Tangier peninsula, by using AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Processes) model to calculate each factor’s weight. The work is made via GIS by using an ArcGIS AHP extension. In the current research, First of all, the four main types of landslides were identified and mapped from existing documents, works and new data which came from either remote sensing or fieldwork. Lithology, land use, slope, hypsometry, exposure, fault density and drainage network density were used as main parameters controlling the occurrence of the selected landslides. Then, afterward, each parameter is classified into a number of significant classes based on their relative influence on gravitational movement genesis. The validity of the susceptibility zoning map which is obtained through linear summation of indexed maps was tested and cross-checked by inventoried and studied landslides. The obtained landslide susceptibility map constitutes a powerful decision-making tool in land-use planning, i.e. New highways, secondary highways, railways, etc. within the national development program in the Northern provinces. It is a necessary step for the landslides hazard assessment in the Tangier peninsula in northern Morocco.

scholarly journals Slope Stability Assessment and Landslide Susceptibility Map Production of Wadi Dhahr Area, Northwest of Sana’a, Yemen

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Barahim Adnan A. ◽  
Khanbari Khaled M. ◽  
Algodami Amal F. ◽  
Almadhaji Ziad A. ◽  
Adris Ahmed M.
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Stability Assessment ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Modes Of Failure

A slope stability assessment of Wadi Dhahr area, located northwest of Sana’a the capital of Yemen, was carried out in this study. The study area consists of sandstone and volcanic rocks that are deformed by number of faults, joints and basaltic dykes. All the important factors affecting slope stability in the area such as slope angle, slope height, discontinuities measurements, weathering, vegetation cover, rainfall and previous landslides were evaluated. The study was conducted based on the integration of field investigation and satellite image processing. A landslide susceptibility map was produced with the Landslide Possibility Index (LP1) System, and the correlation values were computed between the factors measured and Landslide Possibility Index values. The fractures counted by satellite image were categorised according to their length and zones based on their concentrations. It was found that plain sliding and rockfall are the main modes of failure in the area, while rolling and toppling are rare. Some remedial measures are proposed to protect the slopes where it is needed,  such as the removal of rock overhangs, unstable blocks and trees, and by supporting the toe of slopes and overhanging parts by retaining walls and erecting well sealed drainage conduits. The results will assist in slope management and land use planning in the area.

scholarly journals Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Different GIS-Based Bivariate Models

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nohani ◽  
Moharrami ◽  
Sharafi ◽  
Khosravi ◽  
Pradhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Bivariate Models

Landslides are the most frequent phenomenon in the northern part of Iran, which cause considerable financial and life damages every year. One of the most widely used approaches to reduce these damages is preparing a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using suitable methods and selecting the proper conditioning factors. The current study is aimed at comparing four bivariate models, namely the frequency ratio (FR), Shannon entropy (SE), weights of evidence (WoE), and evidential belief function (EBF), for a LSM of Klijanrestagh Watershed, Iran. Firstly, 109 locations of landslides were obtained from field surveys and interpretation of aerial photographs. Then, the locations were categorized into two groups of 70% (74 locations) and 30% (35 locations), randomly, for modeling and validation processes, respectively. Then, 10 conditioning factors of slope aspect, curvature, elevation, distance from fault, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the river, distance from the road, the slope angle, and land use were determined to construct the spatial database. From the results of multicollinearity, it was concluded that no collinearity existed between the 10 considered conditioning factors in the occurrence of landslides. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used for validation of the four achieved LSMs. The AUC results introduced the success rates of 0.8, 0.86, 0.84, and 0.85 for EBF, WoE, SE, and FR, respectively. Also, they indicated that the rates of prediction were 0.84, 0.83, 0.82, and 0.79 for WoE, FR, SE, and EBF, respectively. Therefore, the WoE model, having the highest AUC, was the most accurate method among the four implemented methods in identifying the regions at risk of future landslides in the study area. The outcomes of this research are useful and essential for the government, planners, decision makers, researchers, and general land-use planners in the study area.

scholarly journals A new approach in the development and analysis of the landslide susceptibility map of the hillslopes of Bujumbura, Burundi

2021 ◽  
pp. 26-34
Author(s):  
Desire Kubwimana ◽  
Lahsen Ait Brahim ◽  
Abdellah Abdelouafi
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Aerial Photos ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Tropical Environments

As in other hilly and mountainous regions of the world, the hillslopes of Bujumbura are prone to landslides. In this area, landslides impact human lives and infrastructures. Despite the high landslide-induced damages, slope instabilities are less investigated. The aim of this research is to assess the landslide susceptibility using a probabilistic/statistical data modeling approach for predicting the initiation of future landslides. A spatial landslide inventory with their physical characteristics through interpretation of high-resolution optic imageries/aerial photos and intensive fieldwork are carried out. Base on in-depth field knowledge and green literature, let’s select potential landslide conditioning factors. A landslide inventory map with 568 landslides is produced. Out of the total of 568 landslide sites, 50 % of the data taken before the 2000s is used for training and the remaining 50 % (post-2000 events) were used for validation purposes. A landslide susceptibility map with an efficiency of 76 % to predict future slope failures is generated. The main landslides controlling factors in ascendant order are the density of drainage networks, the land use/cover, the lithology, the fault density, the slope angle, the curvature, the elevation, and the slope aspect. The causes of landslides support former regional studies which state that in the region, landslides are related to the geology with the high rapid weathering process in tropical environments, topography, and geodynamics. The susceptibility map will be a powerful decision-making tool for drawing up appropriate development plans in the hillslopes of Bujumbura with high demographic exposure. Such an approach will make it possible to mitigate the socio-economic impacts due to these land instabilities

scholarly journals Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on the Combination of Bivariate Statistics and Modified Analytic Hierarchy Process Methods: A Case Study of Tinh Tuc Town, Nguyen Binh District, Cao Bang Province, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 521-528
Author(s):  
Nguyen Trung Kien ◽  
The Viet Tran ◽  
Vy Thi Hong Lien ◽  
Pham Le Hoang Linh ◽  
Nguyen Quoc Thanh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
The Road ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Very High

Tinh Tuc town, Cao Bang province, Vietnam is prone to landslides due to the complexity of its climatic, geological, and geomorphological conditions. In this study, in order to produce a landslide susceptibility map, the modified analytical hierarchy process and landslide susceptibility analysis methods were used together with the layers, including: landslide inventory, slope, weathering crust, water storage, geology, land use, and distance from the road. In the study area, 98% of landslides occurred in highly or completely weathered units. Geology, land use, and water storage data layers were found to be important factors that are closely related with the occurrence of landslides. Although the weight of the “distance from the road” factor has a low value, the weight of layer “<100 m” has a high value. Therefore, the landslide susceptibility index very high is concentrated along the roads. For the validation of the predicted result, the landslide susceptibility map was compared with the landslide inventory map containing 47 landslides. The outcome shows that about 90% of these landslides fall into very high susceptibility zones.

scholarly journals THE PERFORMANCE OF LAND USE CHANGE CAUSATIVE FACTOR ON LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP IN UPPER UJUNG-LOE WATERSHEDS SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andang Suryana Soma ◽  
Tetsuya Kubota
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
Predictive Rate

The study aims to develop and apply land use change (LUC) performance on landslide susceptibility map using frequency ratio (FR), and Logistic regression (LR) method in a geographic information system. In the study area, Upper Ujung-loe Watersheds area of Indonesia, landslides were detected using field survey and air photography from time series data image of Google Earth Pro from 2012 to 2016 and LUC from 2004 to 2011. Landslide susceptibility map (LSM) was constructed using FR and LR with nine causative factors. The result indicated that LUC affect the production of LSM. Validation of landslide susceptibility was carried out in this study at both with and without LUC causative factors. First, performances of each landslide model were tested using AUC curve for success and predictive rate. The highest value of predictive rate at with LUC in both FR and LR method were 83.4 % and 85.2 %, respectively. In the second stage, the ratio of landslides falling on high to a very high class of susceptibility was obtained, which indicates the level of accuracy of the method.LR method with LUC had the highest accuracy of 80.24 %. Taken together, the results suggested that changing the vegetation to another landscape causes slopes unstable and increases probability to landslide occurrence.

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