scholarly journals Snow Reliability and Water Availability for Snowmaking in the Ski resorts of the Isère Département (French Alps), Under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Gerbaux ◽  
Pierre Spandre ◽  
Hugues François ◽  
Emmanuelle George ◽  
Samuel Morin
Keyword(s):  
Water Availability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Ski Resorts

Land management for sustainable water yield under future climate conditions in semiarid regions with over-utilized water resources: A case study of Xiong’an New Area

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linyuan Ye ◽  
Lei Cheng ◽  
Pan Liu ◽  
Deli Liu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Semiarid Regions ◽  
Near Future

<p>The growing water extraction due to the economic development and population growth has caused over-utilization of water resources worldwide, especially in semiarid regions. In these regions, the sustainable water availability has often been sought and maintained by managing land, but it is highly uncertain in future climate conditions. Besides, prediction of water availability in such region is still challenging due to non-stationary rainfall-runoff relationship caused by intensive human interferences and poor ET simulation by hydrological models. Therefore, accurate estimation and maintaining of sustainable water availability under future climate conditions are important for the ecological conservation and social development of semiarid regions. In this study, impacts of land use and climate changes on vegetation dynamics (canopy LAI) and water cycle (ET and runoff) of the Xiong’an New Area (XNA) are investigated using an ecohydrological model (i.e., WAVES). The XNA, a typical semiarid region located in North China, is expected to need more water in order to increase the vegetation coverage from 10% to 40% by 2035. The WAVES model is chosen because it can simulate ET well by coupling water-carbon-heat. Here, water use (ET) and water yield (runoff) of three typical ecosystems (i.e., cropland, grassland and forestland) in different future periods (i.e., near-future: 2030s (2021-2040), mid-future: 2050s (2041-2060) and far-future: 2080s (2061-2100)) are assessed using projected future climate forcing from 18 GCMs under three RCPs (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected precipitation (<em>P</em>) and air temperature (<em>T<sub>a</sub></em>) indicate the XNA will become warmer and wetter in the future. The WAVES model is capable to simulate the ecohydrological process well in the XNA with NSE ≥ 0.62, R<sup>2</sup> ≥ 0.65, RMSE ≤ 0.86 in LAI and NSE ≥ 0.61, R<sup>2</sup> ≥ 0.66, RMSE ≤ 0.71 mm·d<sup>-1</sup> in ET. During the baseline period of 1982-2012, modeling results show that the forested land evaporates more water (32 mm a<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) than cropland while grassland use almost same water as cropland. Under future climate conditions, both cropland and the grassland will have more water use and water yield due to increased precipitation and suppressed vegetation growth due to warming. Forested land will use more than 20% water (76 mm a<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) compared with that during the baseline period in the XNA, but it will generate more than 10% (12 mm a<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) water yield in the 2050s and 2080s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to greater increases in precipitation. For the purpose of land management, it is recommended to plant crop or grass in the near-future and to plant forest in the mid-future and far-future to expand vegetation coverage in the XNA. This study highlights that both climate change and land management are of critical importance for sustaining water yield in semiarid regions with over-utilized water resources.</p>

scholarly journals Seedling Response to Simulated Browsing and Reduced Water Availability: Insights for Assisted Migration Plantations

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1396
Author(s):  
Emilie Champagne ◽  
Roxanne Turgeon ◽  
Alison D. Munson ◽  
Patricia Raymond
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Total Biomass ◽  
Assisted Migration ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Shoot:Root Ratio ◽  
Reduced Water ◽  
Simulated Browsing

To facilitate forest transition to future climate conditions, managers can use adaptive silvicultural tools, for example the assisted translocation of tree species and genotypes to areas with suitable future climate conditions (i.e., assisted migration). Like traditional plantations, however, assisted migration plantations are at risk of failure because of browsing by ungulate herbivores. The ability of seedlings to tolerate browsing could also be hampered by low water availability, as is expected under climate change. Using a greenhouse experiment with five eastern North American tree species, we evaluated the effects of simulated winter browsing and reduced water availability on the growth (total biomass, shoot:root ratio), survival, and chemical composition (nitrogen, total phenolics, flavonoids) of seedlings. We compared seedlings from three geographic provenances representing three climate analogues, i.e., locations with a current climate similar to the climate predicted at the plantation site at a specific time (here: current, mid-century and end of the century). We hypothesized that seedlings would allocate resources to the system (shoots or roots) affected by the most limiting treatment (simulated browsing or reduced water availability). Additionally, we evaluated whether the combination of treatments would have an additive or non-additive effect on the growth, survival and chemical composition of the seedlings. Quercus rubra seedlings reacted only to the water reduction treatment (changes in biomass and N concentration, dependent on geographic provenance) while Pinus strobus reacted only to the simulated browsing treatment (biomass and chemical composition). We also observed non-additive effects of reduced water availability and simulated browsing on Prunus serotina, Acer saccharum and Thuja occidentalis. In general, shoot:root ratio and investment in chemical defense did not vary in response to treatments. The regrowth response observed in Q. rubra and A. saccharum suggests that these species could tolerate periodic browsing events, even when water availability is reduced. More information is required to understand their long-term tolerance to repeated browsing events and to harsher and more frequent water stress. We highlight the importance of species-specific growth and allocation responses that vary with geographic provenance, which should be considered by managers when planning climate-adapted strategies, such as assisted migration.

Design of a rubble mound breakwater under the combined effect of wave heights and water levels, under present and future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 102711
Author(s):  
Soheil Radfar ◽  
Mehdi Shafieefar ◽  
Hassan Akbari ◽  
Panagiota A. Galiatsatou ◽  
Ahmad Rezaee Mazyak
Keyword(s):  
Water Levels ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Rubble Mound

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Nick Martin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Lulc Change

Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

scholarly journals Holocene changes in African vegetation: tradeoff between climate and water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 681-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hély ◽  
A.-M. Lézine ◽  
APD contributors
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Plants ◽  
Plant Migration ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. Although past climate change is well documented in West Africa through instrumental records, modeling activities, and paleo-data, little is known about regional-scale ecosystem vulnerability and long-term impacts of climate on plant distribution and biodiversity. Here we use paleohydrological and paleobotanical data to discuss the relation between available surface water, monsoon rainfall and vegetation distribution in West Africa during the Holocene. The individual patterns of plant migration or community shifts in latitude are explained by differences among tolerance limits of species to rainfall amount and seasonality. Using the probability density function methodology, we show here that the widespread development of lakes, wetlands and rivers at the time of the "Green Sahara" played an additional role in forming a network of topographically defined water availability, allowing for tropical plants to migrate north from 15 to 24° N (reached ca. 9 cal ka BP). The analysis of the spatio–temporal changes in biodiversity, through both pollen occurrence and richness, shows that the core of the tropical rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone was centered at 15–20° N during the early Holocene wet period, with comparatively drier/more seasonal climate conditions south of 15° N.

Spatial distribution modeling of the wild boar (Sus scrofa) under current and future climate conditions in Iraq

Biologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm ◽  
Korsh Ararat ◽  
Barham A. HamadAmin ◽  
Peshawa M. Najmaddin ◽  
Azad Rasul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Wild Boar ◽  
Sus Scrofa ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Distribution Modeling

Bias correction of extreme values of high resolution climate simulations for risk analysis.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
luis Augusto sanabria ◽  
Xuerong Qin ◽  
Jin Li ◽  
Robert Peter Cechet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
The Body ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Most climatic models show that climate change affects natural perils' frequency and severity. Quantifying the impact of future climate conditions on natural hazard is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning. One crucial factor to consider when using climate simulations projections is the inherent systematic differences (bias) of the modelled data compared with observations. This bias can originate from the modelling process, the techniques used for downscaling of results, and the ensembles' intrinsic variability. Analysis of climate simulations has shown that the biases associated with these data types can be significant. Hence, it is often necessary to correct the bias before the data can be reliably used for further analysis. Natural perils are often associated with extreme climatic conditions. Analysing trends in the tail end of distributions are already complicated because noise is much more prominent than that in the mean climate. The bias of the simulations can introduce significant errors in practical applications. In this paper, we present a methodology for bias correction of climate simulated data. The technique corrects the bias in both the body and the tail of the distribution (extreme values). As an illustration, maps of the 50 and 100-year Return Period of climate simulated Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) in Australia are presented and compared against the corresponding observation-based maps. The results show that the algorithm can substantially improve the calculation of simulation-based Return Periods. Forthcoming work will focus on the impact of climate change on these Return Periods considering future climate conditions.

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