scholarly journals Preferences for partial information and ambiguity

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1059-1094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Partial Information ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Recursive Preferences ◽  
Recursive Model ◽  
Information Aversion ◽  
Free Information

We commonly think of information as an instrument for better decisions, yet evidence suggests that people often decline free information in nonstrategic scenarios. This paper provides a theory for how a dynamically‐consistent decision maker can be averse to partial information as a consequence of ambiguity aversion. It introduces a class of recursive preferences on an extended choice domain, which allows the preferences to depend on how information is dynamically revealed and to depart from the standard expected‐utility theory. A new notion of ambiguity aversion, called Event Complementarity, exactly characterizes aversion to partial information. Familiar static ambiguity‐averse preferences are embedded into the general recursive model, in which conditions for partial information aversion are identified. The findings suggest that Event Complementarity overlaps with yet still differs from the conventional notion of ambiguity aversion.

scholarly journals Desenvolvimento de uma Medida de Desempenho Comportamental

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 395
Author(s):  
Marcelo Cabus Klotzle ◽  
Leonardo Lima Gomes ◽  
Luiz Eduardo Teixeira Brandão ◽  
Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes

Since the fifties, several measures have been developed in order to measure the performance of investments or choices involving uncertain outcomes. Much of these measures are based on Expected Utility Theory, but since the nineties a number of measures have been proposed based on Non-Expected Utility Theory. Among the Theories of Non-Expected Utility highlights Prospect Theory, which is the foundation of Behavioral Finance. Based on this theory this study proposes a new performance measure in which are embedded loss aversion along with the likelihood of distortions in the choice of alternatives. A hypothetical example is presented in which various performance measures, including the new measure are compared. The results showed that the ordering of the assets varied depending on the performance measure adopted. According to what was expected, the new performance measure clearly has captured the distortion of probabilities and loss aversion of the decision maker, ie, those assets with the greatest negative deviations from the target were those who had the worst performance.

Size Doesn't Really Matter

2008 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Briony D. Pulford ◽  
Andrew M. Colman
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Investigation ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Aversion Effect

Abstract. When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.

scholarly journals Continuity and catastrophic risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
H. Orri Stefánsson
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Continuity Condition ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Catastrophic Risk ◽  
Lifetime Income ◽  
Continuity Axiom

Abstract Suppose that a decision-maker’s aim, under certainty, is to maximize some continuous value, such as lifetime income or continuous social welfare. Can such a decision-maker rationally satisfy what has been called ‘continuity for easy cases’ while at the same time satisfying what seems to be a widespread intuition against the full-blown continuity axiom of expected utility theory? In this note I argue that the answer is ‘no’: given transitivity and a weak trade-off principle, continuity for easy cases violates the anti-continuity intuition. I end the note by exploring an even weaker continuity condition that is consistent with the aforementioned intuition.

scholarly journals Cumulative Prospect Theory Version with Fuzzy Values of Outcome Estimates

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov ◽  
Peter Grabusts
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Development History ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Choosing solutions under risk and uncertainty requires the consideration of several factors. One of the main factors in choosing a solution is modeling the decision maker’s attitude to risk. The expected utility theory was the first approach that allowed to correctly model various nuances of the attitude to risk. Further research in this area has led to the emergence of even more effective approaches to solving this problem. Currently, the most developed theory of choice with respect to decisions under risk conditions is the cumulative prospect theory. This paper presents the development history of various extensions of the original expected utility theory, and the analysis of the main properties of the cumulative prospect theory. The main result of this work is a fuzzy version of the prospect theory, which allows handling fuzzy values of the decisions (prospects). The paper presents the theoretical foundations of the proposed version, an illustrative practical example, and conclusions based on the results obtained.

Norm-Endorsement Utilitarianism and the Nature of Utility

1996 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Baron
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Interpersonal Comparison ◽  
Moral Norms ◽  
Moral Principles ◽  
Future Goals ◽  
Equal Consideration

In this article, I shall suggest an approach to the justification of normative moral principles which leads, I think, to utilitarianism. The approach is based on asking what moral norms we would each endorse if we had no prior moral commitments. I argue that we would endorse norms that lead to the satisfaction of all our nonmoral values or goals. The same approach leads to a view of utility as consisting of those goals that we would want satisfied. In the second half of the article, I examine the implication of this view for several issues about the nature of utility, such as the use of past and future goals. The argument for utilitarianism is not completed here. The rest of it requires a defense of expected-utility theory, of interpersonal comparison, and of equal consideration (see Baron, 1993; Broome, 1991).

Housing Market Search Behavior and Expected Utility Theory: 1. Measuring Preferences for Housing

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 681-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
T R Smith ◽  
W A V Clark
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
House Price ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Utility Functions ◽  
Future Search ◽  
Space Construction ◽  
Market Search

This is the first of two papers examining housing market search in a Los Angeles market. In this paper, we derive and analyze utility functions for housing for each individual in two groups of subjects. The utility functions are derived from an experimental setting, in which house price, floor space, construction quality, and neighborhood quality are varied. The functions are found to be essentially compatible with a linear model. They are used to predict the ratings of real houses and the ratings of the expected value of future search. These ratings are compared with actual ratings obtained from subjects during search. The results suggest that the actual or predicted ratings may be employed in a direct test of a simple expected utility theory of search, and further research along these lines appears justified.

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