scholarly journals Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myrto Kalouptsidi ◽  
Paul T. Scott ◽  
Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Discrete Choice ◽  
General Framework ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Broad Class ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Dynamic Discrete Choice ◽  
Exit Problem ◽  
Choice Sets

Dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models are not identified nonparametrically, but the non‐identification of models does not necessarily imply the nonidentification of counterfactuals. We derive novel results for the identification of counterfactuals in DDC models, such as non‐additive changes in payoffs or changes to agents' choice sets. In doing so, we propose a general framework that allows the investigation of the identification of a broad class of counterfactuals (covering virtually any counterfactual encountered in applied work). To illustrate the results, we consider a firm entry/exit problem numerically, as well as an empirical model of agricultural land use. In each case, we provide examples of both identified and nonidentified counterfactuals of interest.

scholarly journals Agroforestry Systems of the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley: Land Use for Biocultural Diversity Conservation

Land ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Mariana Vallejo ◽  
M. Isabel Ramírez ◽  
Alejandro Reyes-González ◽  
Jairo López-Sánchez ◽  
Alejandro Casas
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
World Heritage Site ◽  
Biocultural Diversity ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Visual Interpretation ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Human Settlements

The Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, Mexico, is the semiarid region with the richest biodiversity of North America and was recently recognized as a UNESCO's World Heritage site. Original agricultural practices remain to this day in agroforestry systems (AFS), which are expressions of high biocultural diversity. However, local people and researchers perceive a progressive decline both in natural ecosystems and AFS. To assess changes in location and extent of agricultural land use, we carried out a visual interpretation of very-high resolution imagery and field work, through which we identified AFS and conventional agricultural systems (CAS) from 1995 to 2003 and 2012. We analyzed five communities, representative of three main ecological and agricultural zones of the region. We assessed agricultural land use changes in relation to conspicuous landscape features (relief, rivers, roads, and human settlements). We found that natural ecosystems cover more than 85% of the territory in each community, and AFS represent 51% of all agricultural land. Establishment and permanence of agricultural lands were strongly influenced by gentle slopes and the existence of roads. Contrary to what we expected, we recorded agricultural areas being abandoned, thus favoring the regeneration of natural ecosystems, as well as a 9% increase of AFS over CAS. Agriculture is concentrated near human settlements. Most of the studied territories are meant to preserve natural ecosystems, and traditional AFS practices are being recovered for biocultural conservation.

scholarly journals An Integrated Economic, Environmental and Social Approach to Agricultural Land-Use Planning

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 364
Author(s):  
Sahar Shahpari ◽  
Janelle Allison ◽  
Matthew Tom Harrison ◽  
Roger Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Crop Selection ◽  
Regional Impacts ◽  
Farmer Decision Making

Agricultural land-use change is a dynamic process that varies as a function of social, economic and environmental factors spanning from the local to the global scale. The cumulative regional impacts of these factors on land use adoption decisions by farmers are neither well accounted for nor reflected in agricultural land use planning. We present an innovative spatially explicit agent-based modelling approach (Crop GIS-ABM) that accounts for factors involved in farmer decision making on new irrigation adoption to enable land-use predictions and exploration. The model was designed using a participatory approach, capturing stakeholder insights in a conceptual model of farmer decisions. We demonstrate a case study of the factors influencing the uptake of new irrigation infrastructure and land use in Tasmania, Australia. The model demonstrates how irrigated land-use expansion promotes the diffusion of alternative crops in the region, as well as how coupled social, biophysical and environmental conditions play an important role in crop selection. Our study shows that agricultural land use reflected the evolution of multiple simultaneous interacting biophysical and socio-economic drivers, including soil and climate type, crop and commodity prices, and the accumulated effects of interactive decisions of farmers.

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