scholarly journals Forecasting With Dynamic Panel Data Models

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Liu ◽  
Hyungsik Roger Moon ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Study ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Posterior Mean ◽  
Correlated Random Effects

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross‐sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross‐sectional information to transform the unit‐specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that equals the population distribution of the random coefficients. We show that the risk of a predictor based on a nonparametric kernel estimate of the Tweedie correction is asymptotically equivalent to the risk of a predictor that treats the correlated random effects distribution as known (ratio optimality). Our empirical Bayes predictor performs well compared to various competitors in a Monte Carlo study. In an empirical application, we use the predictor to forecast revenues for a large panel of bank holding companies and compare forecasts that condition on actual and severely adverse macroeconomic conditions.

scholarly journals Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Bell ◽  
Kelvyn Jones
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Variance Functions ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Random Effects Modeling

This article challenges Fixed Effects (FE) modeling as the ‘default’ for time-series-cross-sectional and panel data. Understanding different within and between effects is crucial when choosing modeling strategies. The downside of Random Effects (RE) modeling—correlated lower-level covariates and higher-level residuals—is omitted-variable bias, solvable with Mundlak's (1978a) formulation. Consequently, RE can provide everything that FE promises and more, as confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations, which additionally show problems with Plümper and Troeger's FE Vector Decomposition method when data are unbalanced. As well as incorporating time-invariant variables, RE models are readily extendable, with random coefficients, cross-level interactions and complex variance functions. We argue not simply for technical solutions to endogeneity, but for the substantive importance of context/heterogeneity, modeled using RE. The implications extend beyond political science to all multilevel datasets. However, omitted variables could still bias estimated higher-level variable effects; as with any model, care is required in interpretation.

Nonparametric panel data regression with parametric cross-sectional dependence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Soberon ◽  
Juan M Rodriguez-Poo ◽  
Peter M Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Monte Carlo Study ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Linear Estimator ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Local Linear Estimator ◽  
Cross Sectional Dependence

Abstract In this paper, we consider efficiency improvement in a nonparametric panel data model with cross-sectional dependence. A Generalized Least Squares (GLS)-type estimator is proposed by taking into account this dependence structure. Parameterizing the cross-sectional dependence, a local linear estimator is shown to be dominated by this type of GLS estimator. Also, possible gains in terms of rate of convergence are studied. Asymptotically optimal bandwidth choice is justified. To assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, a Monte Carlo study is carried out. Further, some empirical applications are conducted with the aim of analyzing the implications of the European Monetary Union for its member countries.

scholarly journals Bias correction methods for dynamic panel data models with fixed effects

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abonazel
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Cross Sectional Dimension ◽  
Ls Estimator

This paper considers the estimation methods for dynamic panel data (DPD) models with fixed effects, which suggested in econometric literature, such as least squares (LS) and generalized method of moments (GMM). These methods obtain biased estimators for DPD models. The LS estimator is inconsistent when the time dimension (T) is short regardless of the cross-sectional dimension (N). Although consistent estimates can be obtained by GMM procedures, the inconsistent LS estimator has a relatively low variance and hence can lead to an estimator with lower root mean square error after the bias is removed. Therefore, we discuss in this paper the different methods to correct the bias of LS and GMM estimations. The analytical expressions for the asymptotic biases of the LS and GMM estimators have been presented for large N and finite T. Finally; we display new estimators that presented by Youssef and Abonazel [40] as more efficient estimators than the conventional estimators.

Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Wawro
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Moments Estimators

Panel data are a very valuable resource for finding empirical solutions to political science puzzles. Yet numerous published studies in political science that use panel data to estimate models with dynamics have failed to take into account important estimation issues, which calls into question the inferences we can make from these analyses. The failure to account explicitly for unobserved individual effects in dynamic panel data induces bias and inconsistency in cross-sectional estimators. The purpose of this paper is to review dynamic panel data estimators that eliminate these problems. I first show how the problems with cross-sectional estimators arise in dynamic models for panel data. I then show how to correct for these problems using generalized method of moments estimators. Finally, I demonstrate the usefulness of these methods with replications of analyses in the debate over the dynamics of party identification.

scholarly journals Inference on semiparametric multinomial response models

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 743-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shakeeb Khan ◽  
Fu Ouyang ◽  
Elie Tamer
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Rates Of Convergence ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Response Models ◽  
Section Data

We explore inference on regression coefficients in semiparametric multinomial response models. We consider cross‐sectional, and both static and dynamic panel settings where we focus throughout on inference under sufficient conditions for point identification. The approach to identification uses a matching insight throughout all three models coupled with variation in regressors: with cross‐section data, we match across individuals while with panel data, we match within individuals over time. Across models, we relax the Indpendence of Irrelevant Alternatives (or IIA assumption, see McFadden (1974)) and allow for arbitrary correlation in the unobservables that determine utility of various alternatives. For the cross‐sectional model, estimation is based on a localized rank objective function, analogous to that used in Abrevaya, Hausman, and Khan (2010), and presents a generalization of existing approaches. In panel data settings, rates of convergence are shown to exhibit a curse of dimensionality in the number of alternatives. The results for the dynamic panel data model generalize the work of Honoré and Kyriazidou (2000) to cover the semiparametric multinomial case. A simulation study establishes adequate finite sample properties of our new procedures. We apply our estimators to a scanner panel data set.

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