scholarly journals What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?

Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (5) ◽  
pp. 2303-2339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Guvenen ◽  
Fatih Karahan ◽  
Serdar Ozkan ◽  
Jae Song
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Normal Mixture ◽  
Earnings Dynamics ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Skewness ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity ◽  
Very High

We study individual male earnings dynamics over the life cycle using panel data on millions of U.S. workers. Using nonparametric methods, we first show that the distribution of earnings changes exhibits substantial deviations from lognormality, such as negative skewness and very high kurtosis. Further, the extent of these nonnormalities varies significantly with age and earnings level, peaking around age 50 and between the 70th and 90th percentiles of the earnings distribution. Second, we estimate nonparametric impulse response functions and find important asymmetries: Positive changes for high‐income individuals are quite transitory, whereas negative ones are very persistent; the opposite is true for low‐income individuals. Third, we turn to long‐run outcomes and find substantial heterogeneity in the cumulative growth rates of earnings and the total number of years individuals spend nonemployed between ages 25 and 55. Finally, by targeting these rich sets of moments, we estimate stochastic processes for earnings that range from the simple to the complex. Our preferred specification features normal mixture innovations to both persistent and transitory components and includes state‐dependent long‐term nonemployment shocks with a realization probability that varies with age and earnings.

Does tourism activity reduce the size of the informal economy? Capturing long-term heterogeneous linkages around the world

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110498
Author(s):  
Aldo Salinas ◽  
Cristian Ortiz ◽  
Pablo Ponce ◽  
Javier Changoluisa
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Country Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Activity

This paper investigates the long-term and causal relationship between tourism activity and the informal economy in 76 countries from 1995 to 2015. We explore this relationship at the global level and by country group, using panel, co-integration techniques that indicate the existence of a long-run co-integration relationship between tourism and informal economy for the whole sample and at the level of country groups. Additionally, the paper analyzes the long-run coefficients of the model by using fully modified ordinary least square regressions (FMOLS). The results from FMOLS evidence a negative and significant impact of tourism on the informal economy at the global level and in high, upper-middle, and lower-middle income countries, but a positive link in low-income countries. However, the results reveal a heterogeneous long-run relationship within country groups. Also, the result of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality in the global sample, but the direction of causality varies by country group. The main policy implication derived from our findings suggests that in order to reduce the size of informal economy, policy-makers should foster tourism activities. JEL Classification : J01, L83, C23, O57, C00, C01

scholarly journals Money Demand in Korea: A Cointegration Analysis, 1973-2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyungsun Chloe Cho ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Stable Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run

<p class="ber">This paper estimates the demand for real money in Korea over the 1973Q3 to 2014Q4 period via unit root and cointegration methods. Utilizing the Johansen cointegration methodology and the Pantula principle, it establishes that a long-term relationship exists among the included variables. The paper also estimates an error correction model (ECM) as well as a vector error correction model (VECM), extending previous analyses by performing forecasts and testing for Granger causality among the variables. It finds that the broader definition of money, M2, serves as a relatively better measure of the money aggregate than M1 when evaluating the stability of the real demand for money. The long-term interest (LR) rate also seems to provide better results than the short-term rate (SR), which is consistent with economic theory given that it refers to a long-run equilibrium relationship. Both the ECM and VECM estimates showed the expected (and significant) signs on the coefficients; LM2 (LM1) and LGDP were positively related and LM2 (LM1) and LR (SR) were negatively related. Granger block causality tests and impulse response functions together seem to suggest that the traditional money demand function which places M as its ‘dependent’ variable, while including income and interest rates as its regressors, was a robust and stable model in the case of Korea.</p>

Inflation Forecast Targeting in a Low-Income Country

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Alichi ◽  
Marshall Mills ◽  
Douglas Laxton ◽  
Hans Weisfeld
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Long Run ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Optimal Approach ◽  
Inflation Variability ◽  
Model Features

A model in which monetary policy pursues fully fledged inflation targeting is adapted to Ghana. Model features include: endogenous policy credibility; non-linearities in the inflation process; and a policy loss function that aims to minimize the variability of output and the interest rate, as well as deviations of inflation from the long-term low-inflation target. The optimal approach from initial high inflation to the ultimate target is gradual; and transitional inflation-reduction objectives are flexible. Over time, as policy earns credibility, expectations of inflation converge towards the long-run target, the output-inflation variability trade-off improves, and optimal policy responses to shocks moderate.

scholarly journals Tax Composition and Growth: A Broad Cross-country Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. e70-e106
Author(s):  
Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea ◽  
Sergio Sola ◽  
Jiae Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Property Taxes ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Levels ◽  
Broad Cross Section

Abstract We investigate how changes in the composition of tax revenue affect long-run growth in a broad cross-section of countries. To do this, we construct a new dataset that covers 70 countries (23 high-, 23 middle- and 24 low-income countries), with at least 20 years of observations during the period 1970-2009. In the context of revenue-neutral reallocations, we find that increasing consumption and property taxes while reducing income taxes boosts long-term growth. Among income taxes, we find that social security contributions and personal income taxes tend to have a stronger negative association with growth relative to corporate income taxes. Results, however, depend on countries’ development levels, suggesting nonlinearities in the relation between taxes and growth even after controlling for convergence effects. Although results are robust for high- and middle-income countries, these are generally not significant for low-income countries.

Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

2019 ◽  
pp. 114-133
Author(s):  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
Y. Yu. Ponomarev
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Negative Effect

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

PENGARUH INFRASTRUKTUR SECARA SPASIAL TERHADAP KONVERGENSI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

INFO ARTHA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Anisa Fahmi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economics ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Theory

Motivated by inter-regional disparities condition that occurs persistently, this study examines the Indonesian economy in the long run in order to know whether it tends to converge or diverge. This convergence is based on the Solow Neoclassical growth theory assuming the existence of diminishing returns to capital so that when the developed countries reach steady state conditions, developing countries will continuously grow up to 'catch-up' with developed countries. Based on regional economics perspective, each region can not be treated as a stand-alone unit,therefore, this study also focuses on the influence of spatial dependency and infrastructure. Economical and political situations of a region will influence policy in that region which will also have an impact to the neighboring regions. The estimation results of spatial cross-regressive model using fixed effect method consistently confirmed that the Indonesian economy in the long term will likely converge with a speed of 8.08 percent per year. Other findings are road infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth and investment and road infrastructure are spatially showed a positive effect on economic growth. In other words, the investment and infrastructure of a region does not only affect the economic growth of that region but also to the economy of the contiguous regions. 

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

SATELLITE DATA FOR INVESTIGATION OF RECENT STATE AND PROCESSES IN THE SIVASH BAY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Sergey Stanichny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Azov Sea ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
Very High

Sivash bay is the shallow-water lagoon of the Azov Sea. Restricted water exchange and high evaporation form Sivash as the basin with very high salinity. This factor leads to different from the Azov Sea thermal and ice regimes of Sivash. Maine aim of the study presented to investigate recent state and changes of the characteristics and processes in the basin using satellite data. Landsat scanners TM, ETM+, OLI, TIRS together with MODIS and AVHRR were used. Additionally NOMADS NOAA and MERRA meteorological data were analyzed. The next topics are discussed in the work: 1. Changes of the sea surface temperature, ice regime and relation with salinity. 2. Coastal line transformation – long term and seasonal, wind impact. 3. Manifestation of the Azov waters intrusions through the Arabat spit, preferable wind conditions.

From Help Giving to Helping Relations

2018 ◽  
pp. 464-488
Author(s):  
Arie Nadler
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Psychological Needs ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Help Giving ◽  
Social Psychological Research ◽  
Practical Implications

This chapter reviews social psychological research on help giving and helping relations from the 1950s until today. The first section considers the conditions under which people are likely to help others, personality dispositions that characterize helpful individuals, and motivational and attributional antecedents of helpfulness. The second section looks at long-term consequences of help and examines help in the context of enduring and emotionally significant relationships. Research has shown that in the long run help can increase psychological and physical well-being for helpers but discourage self-reliance for recipients. The third section analyzes helping from intra- and intergroup perspectives, considering how its provision can contribute to helpers’ reputations within a group or promote the positive social identity of in-groups relative to out-groups. Help is thus conceptualized as a negotiation between the fundamental psychological needs for belongingness and independence. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document