scholarly journals Testing the fiscal fatigue phenomenon in Turkey using a long-run non-linear fiscal reaction function approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 645-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sevda AKAR ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Function Approach ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Fiscal Reaction Function

scholarly journals Fiscal reaction functions for the advanced economies revisited

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Di Iorio ◽  
Stefano Fachin
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Homogeneous Polynomial ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Reaction Functions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
European Union Countries ◽  
Fiscal Reaction Function ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWe revisit the relationship between the primary balances/GDP and debt/GDP ratios (fiscal reaction function, FRF), in the advanced economies, showing that using adequate tests and estimators leads to question the validity of the current consensus. Using data for 1961–2019, we find that long-run FRFs exist only in a small number of advanced economies (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Norway, Portugal and Sweden), with polynomial effects with fiscal fatigue only in Germany. These results warn against the widespread practice of estimating homogeneous polynomial panel FRFs. Limiting the sample to 1961–2007, thus excluding the 2008 crisis and its aftermath, FRFs hold also in Canada, Ireland, Italy (polynomial), Spain and USA, though not in Germany, and the coefficients are generally larger. Particularly, after 2008 European Union countries appear somehow to have been more likely to implement FRFs.

scholarly journals Estimating the Fiscal Reaction Function for Namibia

2020 ◽  
pp. 94-108
Author(s):  
Evelina Julius ◽  
Jacob M. Nyambe ◽  
Omu Kakujaha Matundu
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Primary Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Reaction Function ◽  
The Government ◽  
Debt Levels

This paper estimates the fiscal reaction function for Namibia with the aim of establishing how the Government of Namibia responds to changes in debt levels. The VECM and the ARDL models were adopted to explore the reactions between the two variables. Both the VECM and ARDL confirmed the long-run relationship between the variables and showed that government increases its primary balance (i.e. reduce its primary deficit) by 0.07 percent and 0.31 percent, respectively, for every 1 percentage increase in debt levels. On one end, the results from VECM indicated that fiscal policy in Namibia is pro-cyclical, reflected in a positive estimated effect of the output gap on the primary balance. On the other end, the ARDL model indicated an insignificant relationship between the output gap and the primary balance. The debt targeting analysis performed provides evidence that it is not enough to only reduce the primary deficit for fiscal sustainability. Instead, it is important to grow the economy and improve the ability of debt repayment so that debt accumulation declines. Thus, the paper recommends that Namibia needs not only a positive, but also a strong economic growth if it is to make significant impacts on the debt level and guarantee both debt and fiscal sustainability.

scholarly journals Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function for Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-63
Author(s):  
Patricks Ogiji
Keyword(s):  
Reaction Model ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gradual Process ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Fiscal Reaction Function ◽  
Generation Capacity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the determinants of fiscal balance and the impact of the selected macroeconomic variables on the primary balance of government. It aims to estimate the fiscal reaction function for Nigeria and determine whether the implementation of fiscal policy is sustainable in the long-run. A Fiscal Reaction model was developed and ARDL technique was used to establish the relationships and interactions among the variables. The study investigated whether the fiscal measures pursued by the government from 2000:Q1 to 2018:Q4 was adequate in addressing the accumulation of huge debt. The analysis of the stylized facts reveals that the government had continued to run budget deficits for almost the entire period, except for a few period. The public debt to GDP, which is a major determinant of the primary balance, is negative and significant implying that a fiscal rule that encourages a strong reduction in debt-to-GDP levels would result in substantial pressure for Nigeria to run large primary surpluses in the future. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show the recursive residual plots of the fiscal reaction function are within the 5 per cent critical lines, hence, providing evidence of stable fiscal reaction function for Nigeria. The study thus, recommends that, apart from the urgent need for the fiscal authorities to adopt urgent reforms to discourage huge debt accumulation, improve revenue generation capacity and more fundamentally, expenditure switching to improve the quality of expenditure, the transition from primary deficits to primary surpluses should follow a gradual process.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach in Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Allan Kayongo ◽  
Asumani Guloba ◽  
Joseph Muvawala
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Real Money ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

Many money demand studies have been carried out on Uganda, however, these studies perceive and incorporate exchange rate as a linear determinant of real money demand. Indeed, exchange rate may have asymmetric effects on real money demand; with exchange rate appreciation having different effects from exchange rate depreciation. Therefore, this is the first study to estimate exchange rate asymmetries in Uganda, for the period 2008Q3 and 2018Q4. The study uses both the linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL methodologies to accomplish its goal. This is also done by incorporating an economic uncertainty index, which is critical, especially in light of the novel global coronavirus pandemic, that has disrupted trade, movement and supply chains. The error correction terms of both models are negative and significant, with the one of the non-linear ARDL twice as much as that of the linear ARDL. Indeed, the study confirms the existence of exchange rate asymmetries on Uganda’s real money demand. In the linear ARDL model, exchange rate has a positive effect in the long run but a negative result in the short run. On one hand, the non-linear ARDL model reveals that an exchange rate depreciation of the Uganda Shillings negatively affects real money demand in the short run. On the other hand, an exchange rate appreciation positively effects real money demand. Notably, economic uncertainty has insignificant effects in both models, except for its lags in the non-linear model. The implication of these findings is that macro-economic policy management in Uganda should be cognizant of these asymmetric effects of exchange rate, for effective planning, policy and implementation.

NON-LINEAR EFFECTS OF TERRORISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN: ACCOUNTING FOR CAPITAL PER WORKER AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

2019 ◽  
pp. 1950014
Author(s):  
RONALD RAVINESH Kumar ◽  
SYED JAWAD HUSSAIN SHAHZAD ◽  
PETER JOSEF STAUVERMANN ◽  
NIKEEL Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Capital Share ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

In this study, we examine the asymmetric effects of terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan over the period 1970–2016, while considering the role of capital per worker and structural breaks. We use the non-linear ARDL approach to establish the long-run association and to estimate the short-run and long-run effects accordingly. The results indicate the presence of asymmetries in both long and short run. Moreover, 1% decrease in terrorism results in an increase of per capita income by 0.02% in the long run and 0.001% in the short run. Assuming symmetry, the long run capital share is 0.47. In asymmetric relation, a 1% increase in capital share increases output by 0.55%, whereas a 1% decrease in capital stock decreases output by 0.26%. The break effects show that the years 1993 and 2004 have negative effects on growth. The vector error correction model-based causality results indicate a unidirectional causality from terrorism to per capita income. Overall, the results highlight that terrorism is growth retarding.

scholarly journals Fiscal reaction function: Evidences from CESEE countries

Industrija ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-21
Author(s):  
Zdravkovic Aleksandar ◽  
Zubovic Jovan ◽  
Bradic-Martinovic Aleksandra
Keyword(s):  
Reaction Function ◽  
Fiscal Reaction Function

scholarly journals Corruption, Size of Government, and Economic Growth

2015 ◽  
pp. 155-175
Author(s):  
Qaiser Munir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Size Of Government ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Threshold Autoregression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Government ◽  
Relationship Of

A big size government fosters corruption, which can lead to inefficiencies and resource costs that impede economic progress. In this chapter, it is argued that much of the previous studies have focused only on detecting the linear effects of corruption on growth. This study, therefore adopts the Threshold Autoregression (TAR) approach by using an annual panel data of 100 countries during 1990-2012 to evaluate any existence of a non-linear relationship. This study presents evidence that suggests the existence of a hump shaped (nonlinear) relationship between corruption and long-run economic growth. When the government size is small (11.518%), corruption positively affects economic growth. Whereas, when the government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) is larger than 19.027%, corruption negatively affects economic growth. Furthermore, the result indicates that a non-linear relationship of the ‘Armey curve' exists in our panel of countries. Thus, a government should investigate whether government size is over-expanding or not when designing its public finance policy.

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