scholarly journals International monetary spillovers and macroeconomic stability in developing countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 310-329
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

<abstract> <p>This paper analyses the impact of international spillovers on macroeconomic stability in developing countries. Specifically, the study investigates the impact of United States (US) monetary policy spillovers in the form of US inflation and Federal funds interest rate on Uganda and Kenya's inflation rates, interest rates and the exchange rates, key macroeconomic indicators of importance to macroeconomic stability. The focus on international spillovers from the USA is due to the dominant role it plays in determining global economic conditions. The study applies the Generalized Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach to quantify spillovers across these economies. The results shows that despite recent efforts towards East African regional integration, international spillovers from global economies like the US are more significant in determining macroeconomic stability in developing countries, underscoring the importance of global policy coordination. Specifically, we find an amplification of return and volatility spillovers after the onset of the Global financial crisis.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals Application of modified GARCH methodology: Developed financial markets versus emerging financial markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-261
Author(s):  
Nenad Penezić ◽  
Goran Anđelić ◽  
Marko Milošević ◽  
Vilmoš Tot
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Research Results ◽  
The Impact

The subject of this research is to analyze and test the modified GARCH methodology in terms of quantifying the impact of inflation rates, interest rates on government bonds, reference interest rates, and exchange rates on daily rates of return on investment activities in the observed financial markets of North America, Serbia and Croatia. The aim of the research, i.e. a special focus in the research, is to compare the obtained results between the developed financial markets and the financial markets of developing countries, as well as to test the modified GARCH methodology in the observed financial markets. The key indicators in the research, presumed to affect the daily return rates, were the following: inflation rate, interest rates on government bonds, reference interest rate and exchange rate. The time period covered by the research is from 2005 to 2017, where the width of the research time horizon allows testing the modified GARCH methodology in the periods before, during and after the global financial crisis. In addition to the use of modified GARCH econometric models, the research methodology includes the use of AIC, SIC and HQC (Akaike, Schwarz and Hannan-Quinn) criteria for selecting the best models, as well as the appropriate tests that are suitable for and/or adapted to the specific characteristics of financial markets of both developed and developing countries. The research results confirm the role and importance of the modified GARCH methodology for effective investment risk quantification in developed financial markets versus the financial markets of developing countries. In this sense, the obtained research results will be useful to both the academic community and the professional public in the context of investment decision making.

scholarly journals Causes of The Outbreak of the Eurozone Crises: The Role of the Usa and the European Central Bank Monetary Policy

e-Finanse ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Natalia Białek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Central ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This paper argues that the loose monetary policy of two of the world’s most important financial institutions-the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank-were ultimately responsible for the outburst of global financial crisis of 2008-09. Unusually low interest rates in 2001- 05 compelled investors to engage in high risk endeavors. It also encouraged some governments to finance excessive domestic consumption with foreign loans. Emerging financial bubbles burst first in mortgage markets in the U.S. and subsequently spread to other countries. The paper also reviews other causes of the crisis as discussed in literature. Some of them relate directly to weaknesses inherent in the institutional design of the European Monetary Union (EMU) while others are unique to members of the EMU. It is rather striking that recommended remedies tend not to take into account the policies of the European Central Bank.

Market efficiency and the global financial crisis: evidence from developed markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Sabbaghi ◽  
Navid Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Investigations

Purpose This study aims to provide one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices as proxies for national stock markets, the study conducts a battery of econometric tests in assessing weak-form market efficiency for the developed markets. Findings The inferential outcomes are consistent among the different tests. Specifically, the study finds that the majority of developed markets are weak-form efficient while the USA is the sole equity market to be commonly diagnosed as weak-form inefficient across the different tests when using full period data spanning the January 2008-November 2011 period. However, when basing the analysis on one-year subsamples over the identical time period, this study fails to reject weak-form market efficiency for all of the developed markets and presents evidence consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis as described by Urquhart and Hudson (2013). When applying technical analysis for the case of the USA over the full study period, the results indicate that the return predictabilities can be exploited for some horizon of variable length moving average (VMA) trading rules. Originality/value This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis using an extended set of econometric tests. The study contributes to the existing body of empirical research that formally assesses the impact of a financial crisis on stock market efficiency and underlines the significance and relevance of examining market efficiency through subsample analysis.

scholarly journals Impact of the Basel III bank regulation on US agricultural lending

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Nooree Kim ◽  
Ani L. Katchova
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Following the recent global financial crisis, US regulatory agencies issued laws to implement the Basel III accords to ensure the resiliency of the US banking sector. Theories predict that enhanced regulations may alter credit issuance of the regulated banks due to increased capital requirements, but the direction of changes might not be straightforward especially with respect to the agricultural loans. A decrease in credit availability from banks might pose a serious problem for farmers who rely on bank credit especially during economic recessions. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the impact of Basel III regulatory framework implementation on agricultural lending in the USA is examined. Using panel data of FDIC-insured banks from 2008 to 2017, the agricultural loan volume and growth rates are examined for agricultural banks and all US banks. Findings The results show that agricultural loan growth rates have slowed down, but the amount of agricultural loan volume issuance still remained positive. More detailed examination finds that regulated agricultural banks have decreased both the agricultural loan volume and their loan exposure to the agricultural sector, showing a possible sign of credit crunch. Originality/value This study examines whether the implementation of the Basel III regulation has resulted in changes in agricultural loan issuance by US banks as predicted by the lending channel theory.

Assessing The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On GCC Countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisham H. Abdelbaki
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 27pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-EG;">No doubt, the </span><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt;">international financial crisis that started in the United States of America will cast its effects on all countries of the world, developed and developing. Yet these effects vary from one country to another for several reasons. The GCC countries would not escape these negative effects of this severe crisis. The negative effects of the crisis on gulf countries come from many aspects: first, decrease in price of oil on whose revenues the development programs in these countries depend; second, decrease in the value of US$ and the subsequent decrease in the assets owned by these countries in US$; third, a case of economic stagnation will prevail in the world with effects starting to appear. </span><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-EG;">It is obvious that this would be reflected on the real sector in the economies causing a series of negative effects through decrease of the world demand for exports of GCC countries of oil, petrochemicals and aluminum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Lastly, increased inflation rates with decreased interest rates will result in a decrease in real interest with an accompanying decrease in incentives for saving and consequently investment and economic development. The main aim of the research is to assess the economic effects of the global financial crisis on GCC countries. The paper results are that the big reserves of foreign currencies achieved by the GCC countries in the past few years have helped increase their ability to bear the effects of the financial effects on one hand and their ability to adopt expansionary policies through pumping liquidity to absorb the regressive effects of the crisis on the other. The paper recommends the necessity of taking precautionary procedures for the effects which will result from the expansionary policies effective in GCC countries. <strong></strong></span></span></p>

scholarly journals The Present Global Crisis and Its Effect on the Turkish Economy

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özlen Hiç
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Developed Countries

The global economic crisis first started in the USA in September 2008 as a widespread insolvency problem caused by mortgage debts of households that had become unpayable. The financial crisis, in turn, caused a serious recession. The economic crisis soon spread to other developed countries because their banks held assets of US banks that had become nearly worthless while exports of these countries to the USA decreased significantly. Then it spread to developing countries because direct private investments (DPIs) and financial funds flowing from developed to developing countries declined precipitously while exports of the latter to the former countries also fell down. The developed countries, however, took proper steps to ameliorate the crisis by lowering the interest rates, helping the insolvent banks financially as wel as launching public expenditure programmes. Turkey was one of the worst hit countries because she had been following wrong globalization strategies. Privatization process was corrupt while much of the DPIs went to those fields which did not yield much increase in employment or export potential. But most importantly, Turkey had raised interest rates to abnormally high levels and thereby had vastly expanded her internal and external debts. Hence, as a result of the global economic crises, Turkey suffered a significantly deep fall in her GNP growth rate and a very big increase in her unemployment rate. Though Turkey took several measures to ameliorate the balance of payments deficit and to expand total demand, hence production, the government refrained from making a stand-by agreement with the IMF in order to avoid strict discipline in her government expenditures due to first, local elections and presently, the coming parliamentary elections.

scholarly journals Asian financial development: the rise of a new financial system

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (37) ◽  
pp. 155-167
Author(s):  
Elnur T. Mekhdiev ◽  
Zulfiya M. Bikmetova ◽  
Elvira N. Iamalova ◽  
Oksana N. Ignatieva ◽  
Aygul F. Samigullina
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Today, the global financial system is inefficient in bridging the gap between the developed and developing countries. The dynamically developing countries, such as Asian states, are not satisfied with modern international financial institutions and are actively involved in regional integration, creating new international financial institutions. The newly formed financial institutions contribute to the formation of a different system of financial relations in Asia, which, in turn, is being transformed into the Asian financial system. These trends cannot avoid the impact of the global imbalances. The object of the article is to prove the efficiency of the Asian financial institutions in fighting global imbalances in the region. The major task of these institutions is not the substitution of the current global mechanisms, but their assistance and helping them in solving the global problems on the regional level. The major results include the proof that the developing economies in Asia are more consolidated and capable of conducting a single economic strategy in the long run and the proof of the higher efficiency of Asian financial institutions and their single geo-economic strategy in the long run; this suggests that a new Asian financial system is being built.

scholarly journals Debt and Economic Growth in South Asia

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (4II) ◽  
pp. 677-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rehana Siddiqui ◽  
Afia Malik
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Income Country ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
The Impact

After 1980s, in most developing countries, the rate of debt accumulation and increase in debt servicing are highlighted as major factors affecting the growth rate of output. Most of these countries lost their competitiveness in the international market mainly as a result of insufficient exchange rate adjustments. In addition, the weakening of terms of trade, economic mismanagement and crisis of governance also lowered growth rates in the developing countries. The downward pressure was larger in the countries facing higher debt burden as these countries faced higher interest rates, decline in the external resource inflow, lower export earnings, lower domestic output and lower imports. In case of South Asian countries, the external debt scenario has changed over time. According to World Bank (2001) Pakistan’s ranking worsened to ‘severely-indebted low income country’ from ‘moderately-indebted low income country’ in 1997, where as India’s ranking improved to ‘less indebted low income’ country from ‘moderately indebted’ in 1997. The rapid accumulation of debt, rising repayment burden and the economically and politically resource inflow or rescheduling motivated rescheduling of debt (as in case of Pakistan) has raised concerns regarding the impact of debt on the growth process of the South Asian countries.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF INTEREST-BEARING MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS OF THE CZECH NATIONAL BANK

2020 ◽  
pp. 127-133
Author(s):  
A. V. Berdyshev ◽  
N. S. Bobyr
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Impact

The features of the economic development of the Czech Republic after the global financial crisis, the role of the Czech National Bank in the formation of macroeconomic policies, as well as the peculiarities of monetary regulation in the study period have been defined in the article. The main goal of the paper is to assess the impact of interest rates used by the Czech National Bank in the process of monetary regulation on the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators, which is considered as one of the necessary conditions for the effectiveness of the inflation targeting regime. By the results of the correlation analysis and Fisher’s exact test, it has been determined that the Czech National Bank could affect the main macroeconomic indicators based on the percentage of monetary policy instruments used.

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Central Banking

2019 ◽  
pp. 170-192
Author(s):  
Alex Cukierman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regulatory Reforms

This chapter describes the impacts of the global financial crisis on monetary policy and institutions. It argues that during the crisis, financial stability took precedence over traditional inflation targeting and discusses the emergence of unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), forex market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. It describes the interaction between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and QE, and proposals, such as raising the inflation target, to alleviate the ZLB constraint. The chapter discusses the consequences of the relative passivity of fiscal policies, “helicopter money,” and 100 percent reserve requirement. The crisis triggered regulatory reforms in which central banks’ objectives were expanded to encompass macroprudential regulation. The chapter evaluates recent regulatory reforms in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. It presents data on new net credit formation during the crisis and discusses implications for exit policies.

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