scholarly journals A mathematical model for human-to-human transmission of COVID-19: a case study for Turkey's data

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 9787-9805
Author(s):  
Süleyman Cengizci ◽  
◽  
Aslıhan Dursun Cengizci ◽  
Ömür Uğur ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Galerkin Finite Element Method ◽  
Galerkin Finite Element ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

<abstract><p>In this study, a mathematical model for simulating the human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is presented for Turkey's data. For this purpose, the total population is classified into eight epidemiological compartments, including the super-spreaders. The local stability and sensitivity analysis in terms of the model parameters are discussed, and the basic reproduction number, $ R_{0} $, is derived. The system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is solved by using the Galerkin finite element method in the FEniCS environment. Furthermore, to guide the interested reader in reproducing the results and/or performing their own simulations, a sample solver is provided. Numerical simulations show that the proposed model is quite convenient for Turkey's data when used with appropriate parameters.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Pakwan Riyapan ◽  
Sherif Eneye Shuaib ◽  
Arthit Intarasit
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible S , exposed E , symptomatically infected I s , asymptomatically infected I a , quarantined Q , recovered R , and death D , respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R cvd 19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R cvd 19 < 1 . On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R cvd 19 > 1 . The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model’s analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Building Telemedicine Capacity for Trainees During the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: a Case Study and Lessons Learned

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 2675-2679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharine Lawrence ◽  
Kathleen Hanley ◽  
Jennifer Adams ◽  
Daniel J Sartori ◽  
Richard Greene ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning Models: Australia, Italy, and UK Cases

Information ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iman Rahimi ◽  
Amir H. Gandomi ◽  
Panagiotis G. Asteris ◽  
Fang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Chinese City ◽  
Limited Memory ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus disease, also known as COVID-19, is a disease outbreak that was first identified in Wuhan, a Central Chinese city. In this report, a short analysis focusing on Australia, Italy, and UK is conducted. The analysis includes confirmed and recovered cases and deaths, the growth rate in Australia compared with that in Italy and UK, and the trend of the disease in different Australian regions. Mathematical approaches based on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases and susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, and recovered (SEIQR) cases models are proposed to predict epidemiology in the above-mentioned countries. Since the performance of the classic forms of SIR and SEIQR depends on parameter settings, some optimization algorithms, namely Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), conjugate gradients (CG), limited memory bound constrained BFGS (L-BFGS-B), and Nelder–Mead, are proposed to optimize the parameters and the predictive capabilities of the SIR and SEIQR models. The results of the optimized SIR and SEIQR models were compared with those of two well-known machine learning algorithms, i.e., the Prophet algorithm and logistic function. The results demonstrate the different behaviors of these algorithms in different countries as well as the better performance of the improved SIR and SEIQR models. Moreover, the Prophet algorithm was found to provide better prediction performance than the logistic function, as well as better prediction performance for Italy and UK cases than for Australian cases. Therefore, it seems that the Prophet algorithm is suitable for data with an increasing trend in the context of a pandemic. Optimization of SIR and SEIQR model parameters yielded a significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the models. Despite the availability of several algorithms for trend predictions in this pandemic, there is no single algorithm that would be optimal for all cases.

A bi-level mathematical model for logistic management considering the evolutionary game with environmental feedbacks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peiman Ghasemi ◽  
Fariba Goodarzian ◽  
Angappa Gunasekaran ◽  
Ajith Abraham
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Lagrangian Relaxation ◽  
Evolutionary Games ◽  
Relaxation Method ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Centers ◽  
Location Routing ◽  
Proposed Model

PurposeThis paper proposed a bi-level mathematical model for location, routing and allocation of medical centers to distribution depots during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The developed model has two players including interdictor (COVID-19) and fortifier (government). Accordingly, the aim of the first player (COVID-19) is to maximize system costs and causing further damage to the system. The goal of the second player (government) is to minimize the costs of location, routing and allocation due to budget limitations.Design/methodology/approachThe approach of evolutionary games with environmental feedbacks was used to develop the proposed model. Moreover, the game continues until the desired demand is satisfied. The Lagrangian relaxation method was applied to solve the proposed model.FindingsEmpirical results illustrate that with increasing demand, the values of the objective functions of the interdictor and fortifier models have increased. Also, with the raising fixed cost of the established depot, the values of the objective functions of the interdictor and fortifier models have raised. In this regard, the number of established depots in the second scenario (COVID-19 wave) is more than the first scenario (normal COVID-19 conditions).Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the current research can be useful for hospitals, governments, Disaster Relief Organization, Red Crescent, the Ministry of Health, etc. One of the limitations of the research is the lack of access to accurate information about transportation costs. Moreover, in this study, only the information of drivers and experts about transportation costs has been considered. In order to implement the presented solution approach for the real case study, high RAM and CPU hardware facilities and software facilities are required, which are the limitations of the proposed paper.Originality/valueThe main contributions of the current research are considering evolutionary games with environmental feedbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and location, routing and allocation of the medical centers to the distribution depots during the COVID-19 outbreak. A real case study is illustrated, where the Lagrangian relaxation method is employed to solve the problem.

scholarly journals Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Katsushi Kagaya ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractBackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Accumulating evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which highlights the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory–confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government–chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019–2020 reached values at 3.49 (95%CrI: 3.39–3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95%CrI: 0.81–0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1906634 (95%CrI: 1373500–2651124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), respectively, estimates that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of this approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

scholarly journals Web Application for Statistical Tracking and Predicting the Evolution of Active Cases with the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-74
Author(s):  
Iulia Clitan ◽  
◽  
Adela Puscasiu ◽  
Vlad Muresan ◽  
Mihaela Ligia Unguresan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Novel ◽  
End User ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Since February 2020, when the first case of infection with SARS COV-2 virus appeared in Romania, the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an ascending allure, reaching in September 2020 a second wave of infections as expected. In order to understand the evolution and spread of this disease over time and space, more and more research is focused on obtaining mathematical models that are able to predict the evolution of active cases based on different scenarios and taking into account the numerous inputs that influence the spread of this infection. This paper presents a web responsive application that allows the end user to analyze the evolution of the pandemic in Romania, graphically, and that incorporates, unlike other COVID-19 statistical applications, a prediction of active cases evolution. The prediction is based on a neural network mathematical model, described from the architectural point of view.

scholarly journals On the Selective Vehicle Routing Problem

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosmin Sabo ◽  
Petrică C. Pop ◽  
Andrei Horvat-Marc
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vehicle Routing ◽  
Vehicle Routing Problem ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Routing Problem ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Benchmark Instances ◽  
Number Of Customers ◽  
Optimal Set

The Generalized Vehicle Routing Problem (GVRP) is an extension of the classical Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), in which we are looking for an optimal set of delivery or collection routes from a given depot to a number of customers divided into predefined, mutually exclusive, and exhaustive clusters, visiting exactly one customer from each cluster and fulfilling the capacity restrictions. This paper deals with a more generic version of the GVRP, introduced recently and called Selective Vehicle Routing Problem (SVRP). This problem generalizes the GVRP in the sense that the customers are divided into clusters, but they may belong to one or more clusters. The aim of this work is to describe a novel mixed integer programming based mathematical model of the SVRP. To validate the consistency of the novel mathematical model, a comparison between the proposed model and the existing models from literature is performed, on the existing benchmark instances for SVRP and on a set of additional benchmark instances used in the case of GVRP and adapted for SVRP. The proposed model showed better results against the existing models.

scholarly journals The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Khosravi ◽  
R. Chaman ◽  
M. Rohani-Rasaf ◽  
F. Zare ◽  
S. Mehravaran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Interval Distribution ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.

Model-Based EEG Analysis: Proposal and Verification of Mathematical Model for Application to Neurotechnology

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenyu Uehara ◽  
Takashi Saito
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Binary Classification ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Mental Condition ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Eeg Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract We have modeled dynamics of EEG with one degree of freedom nonlinear oscillator and examined the relationship between mental state of humans and model parameters simulating behavior of EEG. At the IMECE conference last year, Our analysis method identified model parameters sequentially so as to match the waveform of experimental EEG data of the alpha band using one second running window. Results of temporal variation of model parameters suggested that the mental condition such as degree of concentration could be directly observed from the dynamics of EEG signal. The method of identifying the model parameters in accordance with the EEG waveform is effective in examining the dynamics of EEG strictly, but it is not suitable for practical use because the analysis (parameter identification) takes a long time. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to test the proposed model-based analysis method for general application as a neurotechnology. The mathematical model used in neuroscience was improved for practical use, and the test was conducted with the cooperation of four subjects. model parameters were experimentally identified approximately every one second by using least square method. We solved a binary classification problem of model parameters using Support Vector Machine. Results show that our proposed model-based EEG analysis is able to discriminate concentration states in various tasks with an accuracy of over 80%.

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