scholarly journals Asset allocation for a DC pension plan with learning about stock return predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Pei Wang ◽  
Ling Zhang ◽  
Zhongfei Li
Keyword(s):  
Stock Return ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Stock Return Predictability ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
The Impact

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This paper investigates an optimal investment problem for a defined contribution pension plan member who receives a stochastic salary, and considers inflation risk and stock return predictability. The member aims to maximize the expected power utility from her terminal real wealth by investing her pension account wealth in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset, an inflation-indexed bond and a stock. The expected excess return on the stock can be predicted by both an observable predictor and an unobservable predictor, and the member has to estimate the unobservable predictor by learning the history information. By using the filtering techniques and dynamic programming approach, the closed-form optimal investment strategy and the corresponding value function are derived. Finally, with the help of numerical analysis, we explore the impact of model parameters on the optimal investment strategy, and analyze the welfare benefits from leaning and using inflation-indexed bond to hedge the stock return predictors.</p>

scholarly journals The Role of Inflation-indexed Bond in Optimal Management of Defined Contribution Pension Plan During the Decumulation Phrase

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyi Zhang ◽  
Junyi Guo
Keyword(s):  
Pension Plan ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Dynamic Programming Approach ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Defined Contribution Pension Plan ◽  
Hamilton Jacobi Bellman

In this paper we investigate the optimal investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan during the decumulation phrase which is risk-averse and pays close attention to inflation risk. The plan aims to maximize the expected constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility from the terminal wealth by investing the wealth in a financial market consisting of an inflation-indexed bond, an ordinary zero coupon bond and a risk-free asset. We derive the optimal investment strategy in closed-form using the dynamic programming approach by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. Our theoretical and numerical results reveal that under some rational assumptions, an inflation-indexed bond do has significant advantage to hedge inflation risk.

scholarly journals Optimal Investment and Proportional Reinsurance in a Regime-Switching Market Model under Forward Preferences

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (14) ◽  
pp. 1610
Author(s):  
Katia Colaneri ◽  
Alessandra Cretarola ◽  
Benedetta Salterini
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

In this paper, we study the optimal investment and reinsurance problem of an insurance company whose investment preferences are described via a forward dynamic exponential utility in a regime-switching market model. Financial and actuarial frameworks are dependent since stock prices and insurance claims vary according to a common factor given by a continuous time finite state Markov chain. We construct the value function and we prove that it is a forward dynamic utility. Then, we characterize the optimal investment strategy and the optimal proportional level of reinsurance. We also perform numerical experiments and provide sensitivity analyses with respect to some model parameters.

Growth Optimal Investment Strategy: The Impact of Reallocation Frequency and Heavy Tails

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 228-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Bamberg ◽  
A. Neuhierl
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Asymptotic Optimality ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Risky Asset ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Optimality Properties ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The strategy to maximize the long-term growth rate of final wealth (maximum expected log strategy, maximum geometric mean strategy, Kelly criterion) is based on probability theoretic underpinnings and has asymptotic optimality properties. This article reviews the allocation of wealth in a two-asset economy with one risky asset and a risk-free asset. It is also shown that the optimal fraction to be invested in the risky asset (i) depends on the length of the basic return period and (ii) is lower for heavy-tailed log returns than for light-tailed log returns.

scholarly journals Robust optimal asset-liability management with penalization on ambiguity

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Yu Yuan ◽  
Hui Mi
Keyword(s):  
Reference Model ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
Economic Implication ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Dynamic Programming Approach ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Special Cases

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>In this paper, we study the robust optimal asset- problems for an ambiguity-averse investor, who does not have perfect information in the drift terms of the risky asset and liability processes. Two different kinds of objectives are considered: <inline-formula><tex-math id="M1">\begin{document}$ (i) $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula> Maximizing the minimal expected utility of the terminal wealth; <inline-formula><tex-math id="M2">\begin{document}$ (ii) $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula> Minimizing the maximal cumulative deviation. The ambiguity in both problems is described by a set of equivalent measures to the reference model. By the stochastic dynamic programming approach and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, we derive closed-form expressions for the value function and corresponding robust optimal investment strategy in each problem. Furthermore, some special cases are provided to investigate the effect of model uncertainty on the optimal investment strategy. Finally, the economic implication and parameter sensitivity are analyzed by some numerical examples. We also compare the robust optimal investment strategies in two different problems.</p>

Optimal investment-reinsurance problems with common shock dependent risks under two kinds of premium principles

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-206
Author(s):  
Junna Bi ◽  
Kailing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Compound Poisson ◽  
Compound Poisson Risk Model ◽  
Common Shock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poisson Risk Model

This paper considers the optimal investment-reinsurance strategy in a risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business under two kinds of premium principles, where the two claim number processes are correlated through a common shock component. Under the criterion of maximizing the expected exponential utility with the expected value premium principle and the variance premium principle, we use the stochastic optimal control theory to derive the optimal strategy and the value function for the compound Poisson risk model as well as for the Brownian motion diffusion risk model. In particular, we find that the optimal investment strategy on the risky asset is independent to the reinsurance strategy and the reinsurance strategy for the compound Poisson risk model are very different from those for the diffusion model under both two kinds of premium principles, but the investment strategies are the same in this two risk models. Finally, numerical examples are presented to show the impact of model parameters in the optimal strategies.

scholarly journals Optimal Investment Strategy under the CEV Model with Stochastic Interest Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Yong He ◽  
Peimin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Risky Asset ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
Cev Process ◽  
The Interest Rate

Interest rate is an important macrofactor that affects asset prices in the financial market. As the interest rate in the real market has the property of fluctuation, it might lead to a great bias in asset allocation if we only view the interest rate as a constant in portfolio management. In this paper, we mainly study an optimal investment strategy problem by employing a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process and stochastic interest rate. The assets of investment for individuals are supposed to be composed of one risk-free asset and one risky asset. The interest rate for risk-free asset is assumed to follow the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process, and the price of risky asset follows the CEV process. The objective is to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth. By applying the dual method, Legendre transformation, and asymptotic expansion approach, we successfully obtain an asymptotic solution for the optimal investment strategy under constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility function. In the end, some numerical examples are provided to support our theoretical results and to illustrate the effect of stochastic interest rates and some other model parameters on the optimal investment strategy.

scholarly journals Robust Time-Consistent Portfolio Selection for an Investor under CEV Model with Inflation Influence

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Peng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Measure ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Risky Asset ◽  
Control Technique ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Cev Model ◽  
Terminal Wealth ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

A robust time-consistent optimal investment strategy selection problem under inflation influence is investigated in this article. The investor may invest his wealth in a financial market, with the aim of increasing wealth. The financial market includes one risk-free asset, one risky asset, and one inflation-indexed bond. The price process of the risky asset is governed by a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. The investor is ambiguity-averse; he doubts about the model setting under the original probability measure. To dispel this concern, he seeks a set of alternative probability measures, which are absolutely continuous to the original probability measure. The objective of the investor is to seek a time-consistent strategy so as to maximize his expected terminal wealth meanwhile minimizing his variance of the terminal wealth in the worst-case scenario. By using the stochastic optimal control technique, we derive closed-form solutions for the optimal time-consistent investment strategy, the probability scenario, and the value function. Finally, the influences of model parameters on the optimal investment strategy and utility loss function are examined through numerical experiments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document