scholarly journals A stochastic population model of cholera disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Peter J. Witbooi ◽  
Grant E. Muller ◽  
Marshall B. Ongansie ◽  
Ibrahim H. I. Ahmed ◽  
Kazeem O. Okosun
Keyword(s):  
Population Model ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Recent Outbreak ◽  
Environmental Reservoir ◽  
Stochastic Population Model ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Extinction Theorem

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>A cholera population model with stochastic transmission and stochasticity on the environmental reservoir of the cholera bacteria is presented. It is shown that solutions are well-behaved. In comparison with the underlying deterministic model, the stochastic perturbation is shown to enhance stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The main extinction theorem is formulated in terms of an invariant which is a modification of the basic reproduction number of the underlying deterministic model. As an application, the model is calibrated as for a certain province of Nigeria. In particular, a recent outbreak (2019) in Nigeria is analysed and featured through simulations. Simulations include making forward projections in the form of confidence intervals. Also, the extinction theorem is illustrated through simulations.</p>

scholarly journals A Stochastic TB Model for a Crowded Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibaliwe Maku Vyambwera ◽  
Peter Witbooi
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Ordinary Differential Equation Model ◽  
Differential Equation Model ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Crowded Environments ◽  
Disease Free

We propose a stochastic compartmental model for the population dynamics of tuberculosis. The model is applicable to crowded environments such as for people in high density camps or in prisons. We start off with a known ordinary differential equation model, and we impose stochastic perturbation. We prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions of a stochastic model. We introduce an invariant generalizing the basic reproduction number and prove the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when it is below unity or slightly higher than unity and the perturbation is small. Our main theorem implies that the stochastic perturbation enhances stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the underlying deterministic model. Finally, we perform some simulations to illustrate the analytical findings and the utility of the model.

scholarly journals Mathematical Analysis of an Immune-structured Hikungunya Transmission Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1533-1552
Author(s):  
Kambire Famane ◽  
Gouba Elisée ◽  
Tao Sadou ◽  
Blaise Some
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Asymptotic Stability ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Acquired Immunity ◽  
Local Asymptotic Stability ◽  
Well Posed ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, we have formulated a new deterministic model to describe the dynamics of the spread of chikunguya between humans and mosquitoes populations. This model takes into account the variation in mortality of humans and mosquitoes due to other causes than chikungunya disease, the decay of acquired immunity and the immune sytem boosting. From the analysis, itappears that the model is well posed from the mathematical and epidemiological standpoint. The existence of a single disease free equilibrium has been proved. An explicit formula, depending on the parameters of the model, has been obtained for the basic reproduction number R0 which is used in epidemiology. The local asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium has been proved. The numerical simulation of the model has confirmed the local asymptotic stability of the diseasefree equilbrium and the existence of endmic equilibrium. The varying effects of the immunity parameters has been analyzed numerically in order to provide better conditions for reducing the transmission of the disease.

scholarly journals The Behavior of an SVIR Epidemic Model with Stochastic Perturbation

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanan Zhao ◽  
Daqing Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Lyapunov Functions ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Time Average ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Disease Free

We discuss a stochastic SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We investigate the asymptotic behavior according to the perturbation and the reproduction numberR0. We deduce the globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium whenR0≤ 1and the perturbation is small, which means that the disease will die out. WhenR0>1, we derive that the disease will prevail, which is measured through the difference between the solution and the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model in time average. The key to our analysis is choosing appropriate Lyapunov functions.

scholarly journals On a Stochastic SEIS Model with Treatment Rate of Latent Population

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Shujing Gao ◽  
Yanfei Dai ◽  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Yujiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Treatment Rate ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Asymptotic Dynamics ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The asymptotic dynamics of a stochastic SEIS epidemic model with treatment rate of latent population is investigated. First, we show that the system provides a unique positive global solution starting from the positive initial value. Then, the long-term asymptotic behavior of the model is studied: ifR0, which is called the basic reproduction number of the corresponding deterministic model, is not more than unity, the solution of the model is oscillating around the disease-free equilibrium of the corresponding deterministic system, whereas ifR0is larger than unity, we show how the solution spirals around the endemic equilibrium of deterministic system under certain parametric restrictions. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical findings.

scholarly journals Vaccination Control in a Stochastic SVIR Epidemic Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Witbooi ◽  
Grant E. Muller ◽  
Garth J. Van Schalkwyk
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Optimal Control Problem ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Problem ◽  
Almost Sure Exponential Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

For a stochastic differential equation SVIR epidemic model with vaccination, we prove almost sure exponential stability of the disease-free equilibrium forR0<1, whereR0denotes the basic reproduction number of the underlying deterministic model. We study an optimal control problem for the stochastic model as well as for the underlying deterministic model. In order to solve the stochastic problem numerically, we use an approximation based on the solution of the deterministic model.

Stability Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Stochastic Perturbation and Numerical Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Fan ◽  
Zhigang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Special Case ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractAn SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration and random fluctuation around the endemic equilibrium is considered. As a special case, a deterministic system discussed by Li et al. will be incorporated into the stochastic version given by us. We carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model, also regarding of the basic reproduction number ℛ

MODELING THE IMPACT OF VOLUNTARY TESTING AND TREATMENT ON TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS

2012 ◽  
Vol 05 (04) ◽  
pp. 1250029 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. MUSHAYABASA ◽  
C. P. BHUNU
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Voluntary Testing ◽  
Manifold Theory ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

A deterministic model for evaluating the impact of voluntary testing and treatment on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis is formulated and analyzed. The epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number is derived and qualitatively used to investigate the existence and stability of the associated equilibrium of the model system. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be locally-asymptotically stable when the reproductive number is less than unity, and unstable if this threshold parameter exceeds unity. It is shown, using the Centre Manifold theory, that the model undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where the stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The analysis of the reproduction number suggests that voluntary tuberculosis testing and treatment may lead to effective control of tuberculosis. Furthermore, numerical simulations support the fact that an increase voluntary tuberculosis testing and treatment have a positive impact in controlling the spread of tuberculosis in the community.

scholarly journals Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Wang ◽  
Shujing Gao ◽  
Yueli Luo ◽  
Dehui Xie
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Linear Integral ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB) infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction numberR0which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. IfR0< 1, then the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable and ifR0> 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Covid-19 Infection spreads in India with Restricted Optimal Treatment on Disease Incidence

BIOMATH ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 2106147
Author(s):  
Debkumar Pal ◽  
D Ghosh ◽  
P K Santra ◽  
G S Mahapatra
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Treatment Control ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

This paper presents the current situation and how to minimize its effect in India through a mathematical model of infectious Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This model consists of six compartments to population classes consisting of susceptible, exposed, home quarantined, government quarantined, infected individuals in treatment, and recovered class. The basic reproduction number is calculated, and the stabilities of the proposed model at the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are observed. The next crucial treatment control of the Covid-19 epidemic model is presented in India's situation. An objective function is considered by incorporating the optimal infected individuals and the cost of necessary treatment. Finally, optimal control is achieved that minimizes our anticipated objective function. Numerical observations are presented utilizing MATLAB software to demonstrate the consistency of present-day representation from a realistic standpoint.

scholarly journals Simple MSEIR Model for Measles Transmission

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Mojeeb Al-Rahman EL-Nor Osman ◽  
Appiagyei Ebenezer ◽  
Isaac Kwasi Adu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Progression Rate ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, an Immunity-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovery (MSEIR) mathematical model was used to study the dynamics of measles transmission. We discussed that there exist a disease-free and an endemic equilibria. We also discussed the stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria.  The basic reproduction number  is obtained. If , then the measles will spread and persist in the population. If , then the disease will die out.  The disease was locally asymptotically stable if  and unstable if  . ALSO, WE PROVED THE GLOBAL STABILITY FOR THE DISEASE-FREE EQUILIBRIUM USING LASSALLE'S INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE OF Lyaponuv function. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium was locally asymptotically stable if , under certain conditions. Numerical simulations were conducted to confirm our analytic results. Our findings were that, increasing the birth rate of humans, decreasing the progression rate, increasing the recovery rate and reducing the infectious rate can be useful in controlling and combating the measles.

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