scholarly journals Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Muñoz ◽  
Jorge Cordoba ◽  
Iván Sarmiento
Keyword(s):  
Utility Function ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Modeling Process ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Crucial Component

Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory.Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL), which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia). This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH) Airport and José María Córdova (JMC) Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport.Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

scholarly journals Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Diego Pineda Jaramillo ◽  
Iván Reinaldo Sarmiento Ordosgoitia ◽  
Jorge Eliécer Córdoba Maquilón
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Discrete Choice ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Revealed Preference ◽  
Freight Transportation ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Discrete Choice Model ◽  
The Cost

Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia). The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP) and Revealed Preference (RP) survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL), and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

scholarly journals What Young E-Consumers Want? Forecasting Parcel Lockers Choice in Rome

Logistics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Gabriele Iannaccone ◽  
Edoardo Marcucci ◽  
Valerio Gatta
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Home Delivery ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Urban Freight ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Urban Freight Transport ◽  
Socio Economic Variables ◽  
Valid Solution

Surges in e-commerce sales represent a huge challenge for urban freight transport. Parcel lockers constitute a valid solution for addressing the challenges home deliveries imply. In fact, eliminating courier–consumer contact (also relevant for health-related issues, as made evident by the COVID-19 pandemic) and delivering in fewer predefined places might help coping mechanisms for missed deliveries substantially. Furthermore, this option enables consolidated shipping and reduced delivery trip costs. This paper analyses and compares consumer preferences for alternative collection strategies. It investigates home delivery vs. parcel locker use and forecasts their future market shares. This is performed based on both customer socio-economic variables and the attributes characterising these alternative logistic fulfilment strategies. The case study considered tests upon a stated preference survey deployed in the city of Rome. The investigation specifically targeted young people (i.e., population under 30 years) since they represent early adopters. Discrete choice models allow both quantifying the monetary value of parcel lockers attributes (i.e., willingness to pay measures) and estimating the potential demand for this innovative delivery scheme. Results show that distance and accessibility are the main choice determinants. Furthermore, there is an overall high propensity to adopt parcel lockers. This research can support policymakers when implementing such solutions.

Analysis of Time Allocation, Departure Time, and Route Choice Behavior Under Congestion Pricing

2000 ◽  
Vol 1725 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiyuki Yamamoto ◽  
Satoshi Fujii ◽  
Ryuichi Kitamura ◽  
Hiroshi Yoshida
Keyword(s):  
Time Allocation ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Congestion Pricing ◽  
Route Choice ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Departure Time ◽  
Departure Time Choice ◽  
Pricing Schemes

Driver behavior under congestion pricing is analyzed to evaluate the effects of alternative congestion pricing schemes. The analysis, which is based on stated preference survey results, focuses on time allocation, departure time choice, and route choice when a congestion pricing scheme is implemented on toll roads in Japan. A unique feature of the model system of this study is that departure time choice and route choice are analyzed in conjunction with the activities before and after the trip. A time allocation model is developed to describe departure time choice, and a route and departure time choice model is developed as a multinomial logit model with alternatives representing the choice between freeways and surface streets and, for departure time, the choice from among before, during, or after the period when congestion pricing is in effect. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that departing during the congestion pricing period tends to have higher utilities and that a worker and a nonworker have quite different utility functions. The comparative analysis of different congestion pricing schemes is carried out based on the estimated parameters. The results suggest that the probability of choosing each alternative is stable even if the length of the congestion pricing period changes, but a higher congestion price causes more drivers to change the departure time to before the congestion pricing period.

Sensitivity of Vehicle Market Share Predictions to Alternative Discrete Choice Model Specifications

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Grace Heckmann ◽  
Jeremy J. Michalek ◽  
W. Ross Morrow ◽  
Yimin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Utility Function ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Revealed Preference ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Multinomial Logit ◽  
Vehicle Market ◽  
Random Guessing

When design decisions are informed by consumer choice models, uncertainty in the choice model and its share predictions creates uncertainty for the designer. We take a first step in investigating the variation in and accuracy of market share predictions by characterizing fit and forecast accuracy of multinomial logit, mixed logit, and nested logit models over a variety of utility function specifications for the US light duty new vehicle market. Using revealed preference data for years 2004–2006, we estimate a multinomial logit model for each combination of a chosen set of utility function covariates found in the literature. We then use each of the models to predict vehicle shares for the 2007 market and examine several metrics to measure fit and predictive accuracy. We find that the best models selected using any of the proposed metrics outperform random guessing yet retain substantial error in fit and prediction for individual vehicle models. For example, with no information (random guessing) 30% of share predictions are within 0.2% absolute share error in a market with an average share of ∼0.4%, whereas for the best models 70% are within 0.2% (for the 2007 vehicle market this translates to an error of ∼33,000 units sold). Share predictions are sensitive to the presence of utility covariates but less sensitive to the form. Models that perform well on one metric tend to perform well on the other metrics as well. In particular, models selected for best fit have comparable forecast error to those with the best forecasts, and residual error in model fit is a major source of forecast error.

scholarly journals Identifyingy the Utility Function of Transport Services From Stated Preferences

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamas Andrejszki ◽  
Adam Torok ◽  
Maria Csete
Keyword(s):  
Utility Function ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Modal Shift ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Statistical Sample ◽  
Set Up

Abstract The aim of this study was to analyze the modal shift of passengers by analyzing their preferences. If the preferences of passengers are known it is possible to build up mathematically their utility function. This is the statistically correct way to simulate the modal shift of the investigated area. To capture the preferences of passengers stated preference method was used in online questionnaire. Five key factors were identified (from the point of passengers): travel cost, travel time, comfort, safety and environmental efficiency. In order to decrease the number of questions three levels were predefined these three questions made the base of the choice model. Every replier got three alternatives and they were told to choose the best for themselves. From the results of the questionnaire the formulas and the parameters of the mode choice utility function was derived. With the help of statistical sample an exponential utility function showed the best matching. For the validation process a probability model was set up to be compared to the proportions of the utilities. With this utility function it is possible to handle the changes in possible future transport services. Based on the introduced statistical approach the described method can be used to identify the effect of transport modes on regional development and tourism. The revealed utility function can help to develop proper regional development plans.

scholarly journals Estimación de la demanda de transporte por parte de los estudiantes de la ciudad de Córdoba. / Public transport estimate demand for estudents of Córdoba city.

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
Juan José Pompilio Sartori ◽  
Jorge Mauricio Oviedo ◽  
Eric Roger Müller
Keyword(s):  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Consumer Surplus ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Stated Preference Data ◽  
Travel Time Savings ◽  
Time Savings ◽  
Bus Services

Este estudio presenta estimaciones de modelos de elección discreta basados en una muestra de estudiantes a partir de una prueba piloto. Se presentan los resultados correspondientes a los viajes al lugar de estudio por parte de estudiantes universitarios, algunos de los cuales además de estudiar, trabajan. Se ha estimado un modelo logit multinomial de elección de modo de transporte para viajar al lugar de estudio, en el que se han combinado datos de preferencias reveladas y declaradas. El estudio presenta, además, pronósticos de la cuota de mercado del uso de los diferentes modos de transporte, la valoración subjetiva de los ahorros de tiempo de viaje, tiempo de espera y cuadras caminadas en origen y destino al utilizar autobús, como así también las elasticidades de demanda de la elección de modo de transporte y los cambios en el excedente del consumidor ante la aplicación de políticas asociadas a cambios en algunas variables de nivel de servicio de los diferentes modos de transporte. ABSTRACT:  The study presents discrete choice models estimated with a sample of students from a pilot survey. It presents estimation results derived from study journeys of university students, some of which are also workers. It has been estimated a multinomial logit model for the decision of making trips to study places, combining revealed and stated preference data. The paper presents market share forecasts for transport modes considered, the subjective valuation of travel time savings, waiting time savings and savings of walked blocks in origin and destination using bus services. Also, it has been estimated the elasticities of demand from the mode choice model and consumer surplus changes derived from the application of policies associated to changes in level of Service variables transport services.

scholarly journals Exploring Preferences for Transportation Modes in the City of Munich after the Recent Incorporation of Ride-Hailing Companies

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812198972
Author(s):  
Maged Shoman ◽  
Ana Tsui Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Transportation Mode ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Transportation Modes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

The growth of ride-hailing (RH) companies over the past few years has affected urban mobility in numerous ways. Despite widespread claims about the benefits of such services, limited research has been conducted on the topic. This paper assesses the willingness of Munich transportation users to pay for RH services. Realizing the difficulty of obtaining data directly from RH companies, a stated preference survey was designed. The dataset includes responses from 500 commuters. Sociodemographic attributes, current travel behavior and transportation mode preference in an 8 km trip scenario using RH service and its similar modes (auto and transit), were collected. A multinomial logit model was used to estimate the time and cost coefficients for using RH services across income groups, which was then used to estimate the value of time (VOT) for RH. The model results indicate RH services’ popularity among those aged 18–39, larger households and households with fewer autos. Higher income groups are also willing to pay more for using RH services. To examine the impact of RH services on modal split in the city of Munich, we incorporated RH as a new mode into an existing nested logit mode choice model using an incremental logit. Travel time, travel cost and VOT were used as measures for the choice commuters make when choosing between RH and its closest mode, metro. A total of 20 scenarios were evaluated at four different congestion levels and four price levels to reflect the demand in response to acceptable costs and time tradeoffs.

Analisa Pemilihan Moda Transportasi Umum Rute Tanjung Karang – Bandara Radin Inten II Dengan Stated Preference dan Uji Crame’s V

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abi Berkah Nadi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Time Headway ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Selection Of

Radin Inten II Airport is a national flight in Lampung Province. In this study using the technical analysis stated preference which is the approach by conveying the choice statement in the form of hypotheses to be assessed by the respondent. By using these techniques the researcher can fully control the hypothesized factors. To determine utility function for model forecasting in fulfilling request of traveler is used regression analysis with SPSS program. The analysis results obtained that the passengers of the dominant airport in the selection of modes of cost attributes than on other attributes. From the result of regression analysis, the influence of independent variable to the highest dependent variable is when the five attributes are used together with the R square value of 8.8%. The relationship between cost, time, headway, time acces and service with the selection of modes, the provision that states whether or not there is a decision. The significance of α = 0.05 with chi-square. And the result of Crame's V test average of 0.298 is around the middle, then the relationship is moderate enough.

scholarly journals User Automotive Powertrain-Type Choice Model and Analysis Using Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 585
Author(s):  
Fabio Luis Marques dos Santos ◽  
Paolo Tecchio ◽  
Fulvio Ardente ◽  
Ferenc Pekár
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
User Behavior ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Purchase Cost ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates user’s choice of electric or internal combustion engine automotive vehicles based on basic vehicle attributes (purchase price, range, operating cost, taxes due to emissions, time to refuel/recharge and vehicle price depreciation), with the objective of analyzing user behavior and creating a model that can be used to support policymaking. The ANN was trained using stated preference data from a survey carried out in six European countries, taking into account petrol, diesel and battery electric automotive vehicle attributes. Model results show that the electric vehicle parameters (especially purchase cost, range and recharge times), as well as the purchase cost of internal combustion engine vehicles, have the most influence on consumers’ vehicle choices. A graphical interface was created for the model, to make it easier to understand the interactions between different attributes and their impacts on consumer choices and thus help policy decisions.

scholarly journals Characteristics Analysis of Freight Mode Choice Model According to the Introduction of a New Freight Transport System

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungjin Shin ◽  
Hong-Seung Roh ◽  
Sung Hur
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
Transport Cost ◽  
Transport Mode

The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of freight mode choices made by shippers and carriers with the introduction of a new freight transport system. We set an area in which actual freight transport takes place as the analysis scope and performed a survey of the shippers and carriers that transport containers to identify their stated preference (SP) regarding the new freight mode. The SP survey was carried out through an experimental design and this study considered the three factors of transport time, transport cost, and service level. This study compared and analyzed the models by distance using an individual behavior model. The results of estimating the model showed that the explanatory power of the model classified by distance and the individual parameters have statistical significance. The hit ratio was also high, which confirms that the model was estimated properly. In addition, the range of elasticity and the value of travel time analyzed using the model were evaluated to be appropriate compared to previous studies. The findings of the elasticity analysis show that strategies for reducing the transport cost are effective to increase the demand for the new transport mode. The value of travel time of freight transport was found to be higher than the current value generally applied in Korea. Considering that the value of travel time currently used is based on road freight transport, further research is required to apply a new value of travel time that reflects the characteristics of the new transport mode in the future.

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