scholarly journals Supply line engineering on importation and exportation: bimstec perspective

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arodh Lal Karn ◽  
Rakshha Kumari Karna
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Supply Line ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Line Engineering

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

scholarly journals REVISITING KEYNES’ INVESTMENT AND SAVING MODEL IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol XVIII (2) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aims to analyze the Keynes’ investment and saving model in Indonesia from 1981 to 2018. The researchers use the econometric test from the Granger causality test to find the short-run causal relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model to reveal both the short-run and long-run effects in the model. The result of Granger causality test demonstrates that there is no short-run causal relationship between these two variables. In the short-run, the increase in saving affects the consumption loans more compared to the investment loans. Besides, increased consumption compared to saving has more influence in raising investment. However, the Vector Error Correction Model proves that saving negatively affects investment in the long-run. This model empirically supports the long-run Keynes’ investment and saving model. Consequently, the Indonesian government needs to consider saving as a policy instrument to increase investment in the longrun.

scholarly journals The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Kebitsamang Anne Sere ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

Interest-rate causality between the federal funds rate and long-run market interest rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-401
Author(s):  
Hongkil Kim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Relations ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Error Correction Modeling

This paper investigates empirical relations between the federal funds rate/federal funds future rate and long-run market interest rates, employing a cointegration technique, vector error-correction modeling, and the Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). As a result, stable long-run relationships between the federal funds rate and Treasury bond rates are identified in the form of bidirectional causalities that are supportive of the Structuralist position, while the findings indicate unidirectional causalities from the federal funds rate to the Treasury bond rates in the short run. Empirical evidence in this paper also rejects the Horizontalist view that the expected future federal funds rate is relevant to current movements of the long-run interest rates, demonstrating Moore (1991) and his followers’ reverse interpretation on the causality from market rates to the federal funds rate to be inaccurate. An implication of such findings is that the current and the expected future federal funds rate do not have as much exogenous power on long-run market rates as claimed by Horizontalists, and the federal funds rate is, rather, endogenous to market rates for the 2004:2–2008:8 period.

Financial development and poverty reduction in India: an empirical investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A K Giri
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Sector Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in India using annual data from 1970 to 2012. The paper attempts to answer the critical question: does financial sector development lead to poverty reduction? Design/methodology/approach – Stationarity properties of the series are checked by using Ng-Perron unit root test. The paper uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the existence of long-run relationship; error-correction mechanism for the short-run dynamics and Granger non-causality test to test the direction of causality. Findings – The co-integration test confirms a long-run relationship between financial development and poverty reduction for India. The ARDL test results suggest that financial development and economic growth reduces poverty in both long run and short run. The causality test confirms that there is a positive and unidirectional causality running from financial development to poverty reduction. Research limitations/implications – This study implies that poverty in India can be reduced by financial inclusion and financial accessibility to the poor. For a fast growing economy with respect to financial sector development this may have far-reaching implication toward inclusive growth. Originality/value – This paper is the first of its kind to empirically examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in India using modern econometric techniques.

scholarly journals Inflation, Unemployment and NAIRU Estimate in Indonesia: Phillips Curve Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Nurul Hafnati ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The present study was carried out to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in NAIRU estimate in Indonesia through Phillips curve approach during 25 years data from 1991-2016. The analysis model used in this research was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as attempts to determine the long run and short run relationships between inflation and unemployment matters in Indonesia. The results of Granger causality test indicated two-way relationship between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia. The formulated results on long run estimate pointed out that unemployment delivered negative and significant effects on inflation. Nonetheless, Wald Test designated that there was a short run relationship between inflation and unemployment

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