scholarly journals AGRICULTURAL FINANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (0) ◽  
pp. 467-475
Author(s):  
Funso Abiodun Okunlola ◽  
Godswill Osagie Osuma ◽  
Ehimare Alexander Omankhanlen
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Finance ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study performed an in-depth examination of the impact of guaranteed agricultural finance to oil palm, cocoa, groundnuts, fishery, poultry, cattle, roots, and tubers on the real gross domestic product of the country. Time series data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin of various issues. The data sets covered thirty-seven (37) years spanning from 1981 to 2017. The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for its analysis. However, prior estimation and due to several exogenous variables, Phillip Perron stationarity test was used to determine the order of integration because of its robustness to serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. The study also specified the lag criterion based on LR, FPE, AIC, SC, and HQ using Newey-West covariance matrix estimator. Findings from both short-run and long-run models as confirmed by the Wald test, which shows that none of the guaranteed agricultural finance is statistically significant to real gross domestic product. The study, therefore, recommends increased funding and deliberate efforts at determining which of the nominated agricultural spending has the most contributory impact on growth.

scholarly journals Do gross domestic product changes have asymmetric effects on India’s energy use?

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Manzoor Ahmad ◽  
Zia Ullah Khan ◽  
Shehzad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Symmetric Effect

The existing literature on the linkage between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and energy use in both industrialized and developing economies usually assumes that the impacts of gross domestic product changes are symmetric. In this study, we utilized nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and test whether or not the effect of variations in the gross domestic product on energy use is symmetric or asymmetric from the context of India. Using time series data over 1971-2014, the findings depict that the change in the gross domestic product has a symmetric effect on energy use both in short-run and the long-run. Our conclusions infer that there is no asymmetrical association between GDP and energy use, leading to support the symmetric impact of GDP on energy use.

scholarly journals Does Cereal crops asymmetrically affect Agriculture gross domestic product in Pakistan? Using NARDL model approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad Ali ◽  
Imran Khan ◽  
Hashmat Ali ◽  
Khan Baz ◽  
Qiangqiang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nardl Model

ABSTRACT: This study contributes to the extant literature on the nexus among rice, maize and wheat production with agriculture gross domestic product (AGDP) of Pakistan. We use time series data from 1970 to 2017 and employ the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Short run and long run shocks between the selected variables and result’s is checked through the co-integration and nonlinear error correction model.Autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach for co-integration and to find the relationship between variables Granger causality test is applied.Our results confirm co-integration, positive shocks results show that rice, maize and wheat production have significantly influence on AGDP. The asymmetrically positive shocks of three crops have neutral effect on AGDP. While in symmetric results show the unidirectional effect between rice, maize production with AGDP and wheat production do not have ganger causality with AGDP. Finally, results depict that wheat, maize and rice production significantly contributes to agricultural GDP in the case of Pakistan.

scholarly journals An Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Apeh ◽  
Abubakar Muhammad Auwal ◽  
Nweze Nwaze Obinna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic variables on the credit provided by Saudi Banks: تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على التمويل المصرفي في المملكة العربية السعودية (دراسة قياسية شملت البيانات من 1970م – 2012م)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyas Jafar Abdel Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables of the Saudi economy as in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure (G), Economic Openness (OPE), Inflation Rate (CPI) and the Bank Deposits (DS) on the credit provided by Saudi banks (BF), on annual time series data between 1970-2012. To investigate this relationship, the study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) to measure the long-run and short-run impact, At that the E-views 8.1 has been used for analyze the cointegration,the diagnostic, the reliability - stability tests, and the forecasting behavior of the model. The study found that (BF) is affected positively by (GDP) growth rate in the long-run. Also the (BF) has been affected negatively in the short and long-run by inflation rates (CPI) and government expenditure (G). Consequently the Contractionary Fiscal Policy in recent period will not lead to reduce the financial performance of Saudi banks, and the growth of (GDP) in the future will have positive impact on the financing capacity of the Saudi banking sector.

IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGETS ON CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-95
Author(s):  
Abdulkarim Musa ◽  
◽  
Uwaleke Uche ◽  
Nwala Nneka ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy targetson capital market development in Nigeria from 1986-2018. Time series data and econometric tools were used to test for the stationarity and causality effect. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to examine the short-run and long-run impact and relationship between Monetary Policy and Capital Market Development in Nigeria. The study revealed that both in the long run and short run Exchange Rate (EXCHR), Inflation Rate (INFR), and Interest Rate in Nigeria (INTR)were negatively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and they were statistically insignificant in explaining changes in Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria. On the other hand, inthe long run, Money Supply was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and was statistically significant at a 5% level significant while Money Supply (M2) was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria both in the long run and short-run and was statistically significant at 5% level of significance. Therefore, the study recommends that government should improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the money supply in Nigeria since it was statistically significant in determining the improvement of Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN SADC COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-54
Author(s):  
Vikela Liso Sithole ◽  
◽  
Tembeka Ndlwana ◽  
Kin Sibanda ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper empirically examined the relationship between monetary policy and private sector credit in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) group of countries using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique for the period from 2009 to 2018. The Hausman test result indicated that the null hypothesis of long-run homogeneity cannot be rejected and hence we accept the pooled mean group estimators (PMGE) as a consistent and efficient estimator. The PMGE results showed that credit to the private sector and gross domestic product have a positive and statistically significant long-run impact on money supply. The impact of credit to the private sector on money supply is shown by the results to be statistically significant and positive both in the short and long run. The impact of gross domestic product on money supply was found to be statistically significant positive in the long run while positive but insignificant in the short run. The study recommends policy attention that is directed towards the appetite for accelerated growth, investment, and employment in the SADC region but more importantly with more regard to the establishment of sustained macroeconomic stability as a precondition to sustainable growth and for the creation of monetary union in the region.

scholarly journals Determinants of Pakistan’s Exports: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 95-108
Author(s):  
Arshad Ullah Jadoon ◽  
Yangda Guang ◽  
Anwar Ahmad ◽  
Sajad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The research investigated the determinants of Pakistan’s exports by using time series data from 1990–2016. Certain econometric tests were also applied to check cointegration among variables. A unit root test was used to check the stationarity of selected variables. After the stationarity of the data, a vector error correction model is used to estimate the effect of regressors, like foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, employment level, and consumption expenditures on a dependent variable, i.e. exports in the short run. The result shows the positive relationships that foreign direct investment, gross domestic product and employment level have on exports, and the adverse impact of consumption expenditures on the dependent variable. The study uses Johansen’s cointegration test for the long run. The results show that all the variables are co‑integrated in the long run. It is suggested that the government should encourage foreign direct investment and gross domestic product, which would help accelerate Pakistan’s exports. It is also suggested that whenever policymakers provide a trade policy, in particular, in relation to exports, then the adverse effect of exchange rate depreciation, external debt burdens, taxes, sanctions and protectionism should be quantified, and necessary measures be suggested so as to minimize any repercussions.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Public Borrowing and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 243-248
Author(s):  
Ayodele Thomas Duro ◽  
Williams Harley Tega ◽  
Afolabi Taofeek Sola ◽  
Adeyanju David Olanrewaju
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This study seeks to evaluate the impact of public borrowing on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2018. Specifically, the study seeks to analyze the effect of domestic debt (proxy by Federal Government Bonds-FGB) and external debt (proxy by International Monetary Fund Loan-IMFL) on Nigerian’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To achieve this objective, secondary data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulleting and the Debt Management Office of Nigeria. A multiple regression model involving the dependent variable (GDP) and the independent variables (FGB and IMFL) was formulated and subjected to econometric analysis. These variables were adjusted with the Jarque-bera test of normality while the correlation result was used to check the possibility of multi-collinearity among the variables. The t-test was used to answer the research questions and test the formulated hypotheses at the 5percent statistical level. Results from the analysis show that a positive relationship exists between IMF Loan and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, while a negative relationship exists between FG Bonds and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, which violates the Keynesian theory of public debt. The study concludes that both domestic and external debt significantly affect economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, it was recommended that public borrowing should be efficiently used and contracted solely for economic reasons and not for social or political reasons as this will help to avoid accumulation of debt stock over time.

scholarly journals Money supply and economic growth of Nepal: ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-94
Author(s):  
Keshar Bahadur Kunwar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

There are a number of theories illustrating the relationship between money supply and gross domestic product. Money supply can be defined as the total stock of money circulating in the economy. The circulating money involves the currency, printed notes, money in the deposit accounts, and in the form of other liquid assets. Valuation of money supply helps analysts and policy makers to frame the policy or to alter the existing policy of increasing or reducing the supply of money. The valuation is important as it ultimately affects the business cycle and thereby affecting the economy. This study sought to provide answers to the question, what are the effects of money supply on the gross domestic product in Nepal? The study undertook a causal research design using time series data from the period 1974/75 to 2017/18 to critically investigate the relationship between money supply and economic growth by establishing an empirical relationship that exists between them. The study employed the Augmented Diky fuller test and ARDL- VECM model. The results indicate the existence of a significant long-run relationship between money supply and economic growth as measured by GDP. LNBM is significant to LNGDP and LNGDP is also significant to LNBM so there is bi-directional causality. There is unidirectional relationship existing between LNINF to LNGDP and LNINF to LNBM. ECTcoefficient vale are negative and the p-value of above three approaches are also less than 5 percent which is desirable for the ARDL model.

Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enock Mwakalila
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Private Sector Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically analyzes the impact of government expenditure and domestic borrowing on credit to the private sector in Tanzania by increasing lending rates. Quarterly time series data are collected from 2004 to 2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short- and long-run relationships, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The result shows that government expenditure and domestic borrowing crowd out credit to the private sector by increasing the lending rate in the long run. This calls for the Tanzanian government to reduce some of its deficit spending and domestic borrowing, and instead look for another way to increase the tax revenue using loans from external sources to fund its budget deficit. Also, the study recommends that the government should put more effort on improving private sector development by making the country an easy place to do business, which in turn will increase the tax base through corporate tax and income tax from business employees.

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