scholarly journals TESTING OF MARKET PRICE DIRECTION DEPENDENCE ON US STOCK MARKET

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bohumil Stádník

The correct model of a liquid financial market is very important for all market activities including for example a stock or bond portfolio management or an asset valuation. Dynamic Financial Market Model is a comprehensive model with a detailed interpretation. The model considers also feedback processes which cause price development direction dependence on the previous development. This is why it is also able to explain departures from normality as leptokurtic deformations with fat tails and sharpness, extreme values or skewness in the returns’ probability distributions. These departures are commonly explained using a wide range of models with volatility dependence. The question is then arising, whether the volatility or direction dependence is more in accordance with reality. Price Inertia Feedback is one of the most important and has a direct impact on probability distribution and also on a price forecasting. Empirical measurement of this feedback is the core of the paper.

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Bruno Carbonaro ◽  
Marco Menale

A complex system is a system involving particles whose pairwise interactions cannot be composed in the same way as in classical Mechanics, i.e., the result of interaction of each particle with all the remaining ones cannot be expressed as a sum of its interactions with each of them (we cannot even know the functional dependence of the total interaction on the single interactions). Moreover, in view of the wide range of its applications to biologic, social, and economic problems, the variables describing the state of the system (i.e., the states of all of its particles) are not always (only) the usual mechanical variables (position and velocity), but (also) many additional variables describing e.g., health, wealth, social condition, social rôle ⋯, and so on. Thus, in order to achieve a mathematical description of the problems of everyday’s life of any human society, either at a microscopic or at a macroscpoic scale, a new mathematical theory (or, more precisely, a scheme of mathematical models), called KTAP, has been devised, which provides an equation which is a generalized version of the Boltzmann equation, to describe in terms of probability distributions the evolution of a non-mechanical complex system. In connection with applications, the classical problems about existence, uniqueness, continuous dependence, and stability of its solutions turn out to be particularly relevant. As far as we are aware, however, the problem of continuous dependence and stability of solutions with respect to perturbations of the parameters expressing the interaction rates of particles and the transition probability densities (see Section The Basic Equations has not been tackled yet). Accordingly, the present paper aims to give some initial results concerning these two basic problems. In particular, Theorem 2 reveals to be stable with respect to small perturbations of parameters, and, as far as instability of solutions with respect to perturbations of parameters is concerned, Theorem 3 shows that solutions are unstable with respect to “large” perturbations of interaction rates; these hints are illustrated by numerical simulations that point out how much solutions corresponding to different values of parameters stay away from each other as t→+∞.


2008 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 482-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad V. Anderson ◽  
Andrew J. Fuglevand

Functional electrical stimulation (FES) involves artificial activation of muscles with implanted electrodes to restore motor function in paralyzed individuals. The range of motor behaviors that can be generated by FES, however, is limited to a small set of preprogrammed movements such as hand grasp and release. A broader range of movements has not been implemented because of the substantial difficulty associated with identifying the patterns of muscle stimulation needed to elicit specified movements. To overcome this limitation in controlling FES systems, we used probabilistic methods to estimate the levels of muscle activity in the human arm during a wide range of free movements based on kinematic information of the upper limb. Conditional probability distributions were generated based on hand kinematics and associated surface electromyographic (EMG) signals from 12 arm muscles recorded during a training task involving random movements of the arm in one subject. These distributions were then used to predict in four other subjects the patterns of muscle activity associated with eight different movement tasks. On average, about 40% of the variance in the actual EMG signals could be accounted for in the predicted EMG signals. These results suggest that probabilistic methods ultimately might be used to predict the patterns of muscle stimulation needed to produce a wide array of desired movements in paralyzed individuals with FES.


1995 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Church ◽  
William A. Gale

AbstractShannon (1948) showed that a wide range of practical problems can be reduced to the problem of estimating probability distributions of words and ngrams in text. It has become standard practice in text compression, speech recognition, information retrieval and many other applications of Shannon's theory to introduce a “bag-of-words” assumption. But obviously, word rates vary from genre to genre, author to author, topic to topic, document to document, section to section, and paragraph to paragraph. The proposed Poisson mixture captures much of this heterogeneous structure by allowing the Poisson parameter θ to vary over documents subject to a density function φ. φ is intended to capture dependencies on hidden variables such genre, author, topic, etc. (The Negative Binomial is a well-known special case where φ is a Г distribution.) Poisson mixtures fit the data better than standard Poissons, producing more accurate estimates of the variance over documents (σ2), entropy (H), inverse document frequency (IDF), and adaptation (Pr(x ≥ 2/x ≥ 1)).


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelin Lu ◽  
K. C. Chang ◽  
Rui Zhou

This paper addresses the problem of distributed fusion when the conditional independence assumptions on sensor measurements or local estimates are not met. A new data fusion algorithm called Copula fusion is presented. The proposed method is grounded on Copula statistical modeling and Bayesian analysis. The primary advantage of the Copula-based methodology is that it could reveal the unknown correlation that allows one to build joint probability distributions with potentially arbitrary underlying marginals and a desired intermodal dependence. The proposed fusion algorithm requires no a priori knowledge of communications patterns or network connectivity. The simulation results show that the Copula fusion brings a consistent estimate for a wide range of process noises.


Author(s):  
Valentin Raileanu ◽  

The article briefly describes the history and fields of application of the theory of extreme values, including climatology. The data format, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distributions with Bock Maxima, the Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions with Point of Threshold (POT) and the analysis methods are presented. Estimating the distribution parameters is done using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Free R software installation, the minimum set of required commands and the GUI in2extRemes graphical package are described. As an example, the results of the GEV analysis of a simulated data set in in2extRemes are presented.


2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Ruipeng Tan

This paper focuses on comparing portfolio management and construction before and after the coronavirus. First, this paper presents the importance of building up portfolios for investors to diversify their risks. Theories on portfolio management are discussed in this section to show how they have been developed to help on investing and reduce risk. Then, the paper moves on to show the impact of the pandemic on the financial market and portfolio management. Sample data on tech stock returns are collected to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on portfolio construction to find out the efficient portfolio before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The efficient portfolio is build based on the Markowitz theory to find the combination. Comparisons between these portfolio constructions are made to find out the changes in portfolio management and construction under the pandemic era. In conclusion, this paper presents how pandemic has changed and impacted the investments and lists recommendations on future portfolio management and construction.


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