scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF ASSET CLASSES THROUGH THE BUSINESS CYCLE

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Dzikevičius ◽  
Jaroslav Vetrov
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
The Business Cycle

This study was driven by the dissimilar performance characteristics displayed by asset classes over the business cycle. The authors aim to explore assets classes on the grounds of a scientific literature review and a statistical analysis. Business cycles are divided into four stages to explore broad movements in returns of asset classes and a possible existence of asymmetrical effects of determinants within stages. Six main asset classes were analysed: US stocks, EAFE stocks, Bonds, Gold, Real Estate and Commodities. Monthly data from February 1976 to August 2011 were used for the study. The article combines business cycle and asset allocation theories by adding valuable information about performance of asset classes during different phases of the business cycle. Using the OECD Composite Leading Indicator as a business cycle measure, the authors demonstrate that different assets classes have different return/risk characteristics over the business cycle. The article demonstrates how to use the business cycle approach for investment decision-making. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator can provide significant information on market expectations and the future outlook; hence, results of this study can help every investor improve his/her performance and risk management.

Scaling and Adaptive Asset Allocation

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Time Diversification ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
Time Specific ◽  
Mean Variance

In this article, the author reminds us again that return mean and variance are not enough. Appropriate investment risk-bearing scales with surplus over future withdrawal commitments, as well as with investment return characteristics. This framework provides for the integration of financial planning and investment decision-making. Its time-varying risk aversion with the ratio of investments to surplus also provides an opportunity for use of dynamic strategies, though speculative bubbles require compensating inputs to avoid excessive allocation extremes. Appropriate risk-bearing can also scale with functions of shortfall probability to deal with time-specific funding requirements. The probability of avoiding shortfall from an initial surplus over longer time horizons may scale close to the square root of time, creating an illusion of time diversification. In contrast, from an initial surplus deficit, minimizing shortfall probability is akin to playing Russian roulette. Allocations based on minimized shortfall probability can be usefully blended with mean–variance allocations, especially for 5- to 15-year time horizons.

scholarly journals Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

A Downside Risk Analysis of Inflation Hedging Capabilities of Individual Assets and Optimal Asset Allocation

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Aftab Hussain Tabassam ◽  
Zafar Iqbal ◽  
Arshad Ali Bhatti ◽  
Amna Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Optimal Portfolios ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Inflation Hedging

The objective of this study is to examine the inflation hedging capabilities of most widely used asset classes in Pakistan. It also attempts to find out the possibility of creating an inflation protected optimal asset mix. The sample consists of monthly data of cash, gold, stocks, foreign currency, real estate and inflation from 2005 to 2015. The major sources of data are SBP, World Bank and Pakistan Statistics Bureau. The downside analysis of these assets concludes that cash act as an inflation hedge for all the investment horizons. The findings showed that the Gold and stocks also have inflation hedging abilities in short run which extend to medium term investment horizon for gold only, while stocks appear to be a good inflation hedge for longer investment horizons. This study also suggests that investors can strategically create optimal portfolios that are hedged against inflation.

Optimal Asset Allocation over the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-58
Author(s):  
John H. Earl
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
The Business Cycle

The emergence of Spanish REITs

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 495-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jufri Marzuki ◽  
Graeme Newell
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Asset Portfolio

PurposeSpanish real estate investment trusts (REITs) emerged as an important and rapidly expanding property investment vehicle, against the backdrop of improving Spain macro-economic fundamentals and commercial property market. This sees Spanish REITs being the 3rd largest REIT market in Europe, offering access to important Iberian and European property assets, with the added benefits of transparency, governance and liquidity. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio over August 2014–February 2018.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification potential of Spanish REITs over August 2014–February 2018 are assessed. Asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio.FindingsSpanish REITs delivered strong risk-adjusted returns compared to stocks over August 2014–February 2018, but with limited portfolio diversification benefits. Compared to bonds, Spanish REITs offered competitive risk-adjusted returns and excellent diversification benefits. Importantly, this sees Spanish REITs as strongly contributing to the Spanish mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum.Practical implicationsThe 2012 Spanish REIT regulatory changes have been pivotal in providing a supportive environment for Spanish REITs’ growth. Spanish REITs are now a significant market in a European context. The results highlight the major role of Spanish REITs in a Spanish mixed-asset portfolio. The strong risk-adjusted performance of Spanish REITs compared to stocks sees Spanish REITs contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum. This is particularly important, as an increasing number of investors have utilised Spanish REITs to obtain their property exposure in a liquid format in recent years.Originality/valueThis paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of Spanish REITs, and the role of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of Spanish REITs in a portfolio.

scholarly journals UJI KETAHANAN SAHAM VALUE DAN GROWTH INDUSTRI FOOD & BEVERAGES PADA BUSINESS CYCLE INDONESIA PERIODE 2012—2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-53
Author(s):  
Reinandus Aditya Gunawan ◽  
Valencia Priska
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Return Value

The business cycle is a significant factor in the Indonesian economy because by observing the business cycle we can predict whether an economy will rise or fall within a given period. Business cycle can be reviewed by looking at composite leading indicator or commonly abbreviated as CLI. CLI in this study also examined how the relationship between the business cycle with the movement of stock prices in Indonesia. The food & beverages industry sector is selected with the consideration that the industry sector is resilient to all conditions in the business cycle. The result of this research is because CLI have positive relationship with return value stock and return from growth stock hence can be concluded that change of business cycle in Indonesia will bring change also for return value and return growth stock. However CLI has an effect but not significant for return value stock and return growth stock, this means stocks of food & beverages industry sector is quite resistant in the face of business cycle that happened in Indonesia.

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