FORECASTING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) USING TIME SERIES MODELS AND MULTI REGRESSION MODELS (ALBANIA CASE STUDY)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eralda Gjika Dhamo ◽  
Llukan Puka ◽  
Oriana Zaçaj
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Approach Time

In this work we analyse the CPI index as the official index to measure inflation in Albania, Harmo-nized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) as the bases for comparative measurement of inflation in European countries and other financial indicators that may affect CPI. This study is an attempt to model CPI based on combination of multiple regression model with time series forecasting models. In the first approach, time series models were used directly on the CPI time series index to obtain the forecast. In the second approach, the time series models (SARIMA, ETS) were used to model and simulate forecast for each subcomponent with significant correlation to CPI and then use the multiple regression model to obtain CPI forecast. The projection of this indicator is important for understand-ing the country's economic and social development. This study helps researchers in the field of time series modeling, economic analysis and investments.

scholarly journals Long-Term Electricity Demand Prediction via Socioeconomic Factors—A Machine Learning Approach with Florida as a Case Study

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwen Elkamel ◽  
Lily Schleider ◽  
Eduardo L. Pasiliao ◽  
Ali Diabat ◽  
Qipeng P. Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Population Number ◽  
Demand Prediction

Predicting future energy demand will allow for better planning and operation of electricity providers. Suppliers will have an idea of what they need to prepare for, thereby preventing over and under-production. This can save money and make the energy industry more efficient. We applied a multiple regression model and three Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in order to predict Florida’s future electricity use. The multiple regression model was a time series model that included all the variables and employed a regression equation. The univariant CNN only accounts for the energy consumption variable. The multichannel network takes into account all the time series variables. The multihead network created a CNN model for each of the variables and then combined them through concatenation. For all of the models, the dataset was split up into training and testing data so the predictions could be compared to the actual values in order to avoid overfitting and to provide an unbiased estimate of model accuracy. Historical data from January 2010 to December 2017 were used. The results for the multiple regression model concluded that the variables month, Cooling Degree Days, Heating Degree Days and GDP were significant in predicting future electricity demand. Other multiple regression models were formulated that utilized other variables that were correlated to the variables in the best-selected model. These variables included: number of visitors to the state, population, number of consumers and number of households. For the CNNs, the univariant predictions had more diverse and higher Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values compared to the multichannel and multihead network. The multichannel network performed the best out of the three CNNs. In summary, the multichannel model was found to be the best at predicting future electricity demand out of all the models considered, including the regression model based on the datasets employed.

scholarly journals Determinants of internal audit efficiency

2002 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. A. Kruger ◽  
P. J. Steyn ◽  
W. Kearney
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Internal Audit ◽  
Efficiency Score ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Audit Efficiency

This paper describes a case study in which Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology was combined with regression analysis to evaluate the efficiency of an Internal Audit (IA) department over twelve consecutive months. Efficiency of audit projects was first estimated using DEA. These results were then used as one of the outputs to perform a multi-period DEA study with a choice of other inputs and outputs specific to the Internal Audit department under review. The efficiency of audit projects is viewed as one of the key outputs of an IA department and an explanation of these efficiencies would therefore be useful (necessary) to enhance insights gained from the DEA model applied to the twelve months. To assist in this explanation a multiple regression model was employed in which the efficiency score obtained from the DEA computations for the audit projects was used as the dependent variable. Following a description of the models and data, the results are discussed and notes are made of certain aspects pertaining to the department reviewed.

scholarly journals Multiple Regression Model Fitted for Rice Production Forecasting in Nepal: A Case of Time Series Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 89-98
Author(s):  
Chuda Prasad Dhakal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Labor ◽  
Production Forecasting

Background: Fitting a multiple regression model is always challenging and the level of difficulty varies according to the purpose for which it is fitted. Two major difficulties that arise while fitting a multiple regression model for forecasting are selecting 'potential predictors' from numerous possible variables to influence on the forecast variable and investigating the most appropriate model with a subset of the potential predictors.Objective: Purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a procedure adopted while fitting multiple regression model (with an attempt to optimize) for rice production forecasting in Nepal.Materials and Methods: This study has used fifty years (1961-2010) of time series data. A list of twenty-one predictors thought to impact on rice production was scanned based upon past literature, expert's hunches, availability of the data and the researcher's insight which left eleven possible predictors. Further, these possible predictors were subjected to family of automated stepwise methods which left five ‘potential predictors’ namely harvested area, rural population, farm harvest price, male agricultural labor force and, female agricultural labor force. Afterwards, best subset regression was performed in Minitab Version 16 which finally left three 'appropriate predictors' that best fit the model namely harvested area, rural population and farm harvest price.Results: The model fit was significant with p < .001. Also, all the three predictors were found highly significant with p < 0.001. The model was parsimonious which explained 93% variation in rice production with 54% overlapping predictive work done. Forecast error was less than 5%.Conclusion: Multiple regression model can be used in rice production forecasting in the country for the enhanced ease and efficiency.Nepalese Journal of Statistics, Vol. 2, 89-98

Extended SPRT for structural change detection of time series based on a multiple regression model

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katsunori Takeda ◽  
Tetsuo Hattori ◽  
Tetsuya Izumi ◽  
Hiromichi Kawano
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Multiple Regression Model
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