Evaluation of Bayesian Estimation of a Hidden Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model with Application to Threshold Violation in Water-Quality Indicators

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. A. Deviney Jr ◽  
◽  
D. E. Brown ◽  
K. C. Rice ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain ◽  
Water Quality Indicators

A new stochastic model of microsatellite evolution

1999 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 621-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Durrett ◽  
Semyon Kruglyak
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain ◽  
Base Pairs ◽  
Microsatellite Evolution ◽  
Experimental Findings ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Simple Sequence

We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain model for the evolution of microsatellites, simple sequence repeats in DNA. We prove the existence of a unique stationary distribution for our model, and fit the model to data from approximately 106 base pairs of DNA from fruit flies, mice, and humans. The slippage rates from the best fit for our model are consistent with experimental findings.

scholarly journals Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

2022 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Al-Zoughool ◽  
Tamer Oraby ◽  
Harri Vainio ◽  
Janvier Gasana ◽  
Joseph Longenecker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain ◽  
Epidemic Curve

Abstract Background Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. Conclusions In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

A three-state continuous time Markov chain model for HIV disease burden

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 1671-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrishikesh Chakraborty ◽  
Akhtar Hossain ◽  
Mahbub A.H.M. Latif
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Hiv Disease ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain

scholarly journals A joint logistic regression and covariate-adjusted continuous-time Markov chain model

2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (28) ◽  
pp. 4570-4582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Laura Rubin ◽  
Wenyaw Chan ◽  
Jose-Miguel Yamal ◽  
Claudia Sue Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain

scholarly journals Using a Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model to Examine Alternative Timing and Duration of the COVID-19 Lockdown in Kuwait: What Can be Done Now?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Al-Zoughool ◽  
Tamer Oraby ◽  
Harri Vainio ◽  
Janvier Gasana ◽  
Joseph Longnecker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain ◽  
Epidemic Curve

Abstract Background: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.Conclusions: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

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