INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURKEY AND DEVELOPED STOCK MARKETS IN THE PANDEMIC PERIOD: ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (21) ◽  
pp. 36-44
Author(s):  
Anıl LÖGÜN ◽  
Rahman AYDIN
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Bound Test

The integration of stock markets is an essential issue for international investors who aim to make short and long term investments. This paper examines Turkey and developed stock markets co-movements during the pandemic. International portfolio diversification advantages are investigated for Turkish investors who have a portfolio in developed markets. For this purpose, the long-term relationship between stock markets is analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test. The study covers January 2019 and April 2021, and this period is divided into two separate periods, pre-pandemic and pandemic. The results of ARDL bounds tests have not found a cointegration relationship between stock markets in both the pre-pandemic period and the pandemic period. Granger causality test results show that NIKKEI 225 (Japan), DAX (Germany), FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) and CAC 40 (France) are the cause of BIST 100 (Turkey) in the pre-pandemic period. However, Granger causality test results show that there is no causality relationship during the pandemic period. Turkish stock market investors investing in developed stock markets will benefit from portfolio diversification in the long term.

scholarly journals Analysing portfolio diversification opportunities in selected stock markets of North and South America and their impact on the textile sector: An empirical case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (04) ◽  
pp. 398-407
Author(s):  
RAMONA BIRAU ◽  
CRISTI SPULBAR ◽  
AJMAL HAMZA ◽  
EJAZ ABDULLAH ◽  
ELENA LOREDANA MINEA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Textile Sector

This empirical study investigates the financial integration linkages among the sample stock markets of Canada, Mexico,United States (for both New York Stock Exchange, i.e. NYSE and NASDAQ), Panama, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Venezuela,Jamaica, Trinidad, and Tobago during the period from January 2001 to April 2019. This research study also examinesthe impact of selected stock market dynamics on the textile sector. International portfolio diversification has been animportant subject of research in financial fraternity since the emergence of Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952. This studyexamines the portfolio diversification opportunities in the 11 stock markets of Americas.International diversificationamong stock market indices has proven to be fruitful in the past. Certain tests have been used to determine opportunitiesfor diversification are correlation test, pairwise co-integration test, multiple co-integration test and granger causality test.The empirical results show that stock market indices share low correlation among other and they are not highlyco-integrated whereas results of Granger causality test exhibit an unidirectional relationship among few stock marketsin short run.

Analyzing Dynamic Causal Linkages Between Developed Stock Markets of Spain and Canada

2019 ◽  
pp. 282-293
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Portfolio ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Bds Test

The main objective of this chapter involves analyzing dynamic causal linkages between developed stock markets of Spain and Canada. The long-run dynamic causal linkages between international stock markets highlight the importance of a functional and stable financial environment. As an explanation based on chaos theory, seemingly insignificant structural imbalances can easily generate dramatic consequences in the context of a globalized and integrated worldwide financial structure. The empirical analysis is based on daily log-returns of selected developed stock markets major indices during the sample period between June 1993 and December 2013. The financial econometrics empirical research includes the Unit Root Test, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationary test, the BDS test and the Granger causality test. The empirical results provide a useful framework on international portfolio diversification and risk management.

scholarly journals The impact of agriculture and renewable energy on climate change in Central and East European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 447-457
Author(s):  
Nicoleta Mihaela Florea ◽  
Roxana Maria Badircea ◽  
Ramona Costina Pirvu ◽  
Alina Georgiana Manta ◽  
Marius Dalian Doran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
The Impact

According to the objectives of the European Union concerning the climate changes, Member States should take all the necessary measures in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this study is to identify the causality relations between greenhouse gases emissions, added value from agriculture, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth based on a panel consisting of 11 states from the Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) in the period between 2000 and 2017. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used to estimate the long-term relationships among the variables. Also a Granger causality test based on the ARDL – Error Correction Model (ECM) and a Pairwise Granger causality test were used to identify the causality relationship and to detect the direction of causality among the variables. The results obtained reveal, in the long term, two bidirectional relationships between agriculture and economic growth and two unidirectional relationships from agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. In the short term, four unidirectional relationships were found from agriculture to all the variables in the model and one unidirectional relationship from renewable energy to greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS ANTARA IHSG, INDEKS DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH/US$

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 229
Author(s):  
Khairina Natsir ◽  
Yusbardini Yusbardini ◽  
Nurainun Bangun
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi hubungan kausalitas antara IHSG, nilai tukar rupiah/US$  dan Indeks Global yang diwakili oleh Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average. Penelitian mengambil sampel nilai-nilai variabel yang diteliti dengan periode data bulanan dalam periode Juli 2005-Desember 2018. Alat analisis menggunakan uji Engle-Granger untuk menginvestigasi  hubungan kausalitas.  Hasil Uji kausalitas Granger memperlihatkan terdapat hubungan dua arah atau saling mempengaruhi antara IHSG dengan nilai rupiah/US$. Selain itu ditemukan pula bahwa pergerakan Indeks Dow Jones Industrial  secara signifikan mempengaruhi kepada pergerakan IHSG dan nilai tukar rupiah/US$, tetapi sebaliknya pergerakan yang terjadi pada IHSG dan nilai tukar tidak mampu mempengaruhi gerakan indeks Dow Jones Industrial. Hasil Uji kointegrasi Johansen memperlihatkan bahwa semua variabel penelitian mempunyai  hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang signifikan. This study aims to investigate the causality relationship between the CSPI, the exchange rate of rupiah / US $ and the Global Index represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The study sampled variable values studied with monthly data periods in the period July 2005-December 2018. The analysis tool uses the Engle-Granger test to investigate causality relationships. Granger causality test results show there is a two-way relationship or influence each other between the CSPI with the value of rupiah / US $. In addition it was also found that the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index significantly affected the movement of the JCI and the exchange rate of the rupiah / US $, but conversely the movements that occurred on the JCI and the exchange rate were unable to influence the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial index. Johansen's cointegration test results show that all research variables have a significant long-term balance relationship.

scholarly journals Research on Influencing Factors of Tourism Income in Qinghai Province-Based on error correction model and Granger causality test

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 02032
Author(s):  
Yi Chen ◽  
Jingqi Liu ◽  
Songkui Yin
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Qinghai Province ◽  
Tourism Revenue

As an important growth point of Qinghai’s economic development, tourism has become increasingly prominent in its contribution to the development of the national economy and has become one of the most dynamic industries in the province. Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2018, this paper explores the influencing factors of tourism revenue in Qinghai Province by constructing an error correction model and combining Granger causality test. The research results show that there is a significant correlation between the total number of tourist visits, per capita GDP and traffic conditions, and the growth of tourism income in Qinghai Province. Among them, every 1% increase in the total number of tourist arrivals drives an average increase of 1.566% in tourism revenue; and the short-term elasticity of tourism revenue to the total number of tourist arrivals is slightly greater than the long-term elasticity.

An Econometric Analysis of Linkages between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Markets: Evidence from Asian Emerging Markets

GIS Business ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 21-30
Author(s):  
Risha Khandelwal
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Study Results

The purpose of this paper is to investigate impact of macroeconomic variables on stock markets of India and Indonesia. This paper also attempts to identify linkages between markets and macroeconomic variables. The rationale behind selecting these countries for the present study is MSCI emerging markets index of Asia, which comprises emerging economies with huge return potential for prospective investors. This study will help investors and researchers to understand dynamics of linkages between markets and macroeconomic variables. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test is used to assess the stationary of time series, Johansen test co-integration is applied to examine long-term integration among variables, Granger causality test is used to examine the causality relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns. The monthly data are taken for the study which ranges from July 1997 to July 2017. Currency exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, and inflation are the macroeconomic variables for the current study. Results revealed that there is one co-integrating equation of long-run equilibrium between the variables for both countries. Granger causality test reveals that there exists unidirectional and bidirectional relationship between the variables.

Co-Movements of Pacific-Basin Stock Markets: Portfolio Diversification Implications

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-34
Author(s):  
Ilhan Meric ◽  
Joe Kim ◽  
Lewis Coopersmith ◽  
Gulser Meric
Keyword(s):  
Principal Components ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Considerable Time ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Components Analysis

This paper studies the co-movements of and the linkages between twelve Pacific-Basin stock markets during the June 1995-May 2005 period. We use the principal components analysis (PCA) technique to group the stock markets into statistically significant principal components in terms of the similarities of their index return movements. The rolling correlation analysis results show that correlation between the Pacific-Basin stock markets has considerable time-varying volatility. The Granger causality test results indicate that the weekly index returns of most Pacific-Basin stock markets are weak-form efficient and that most Pacific-Basin stock markets have significant lead/lag linkages. The study investigates the portfolio diversification implications of the linkages between the Pacific-Basin stock markets.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI on Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
Vol 221 ◽  
pp. 65-84
Author(s):  
THÀNH SỬ ĐÌNH ◽  
Tiến Nguyễn Minh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Controversial Issue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Impact

The impact of foreign direct imvestment (FDI) on economic growth is still a highly controversial issue as remarked by many researchers (Aitken et al.; 1997; Carkovic & Levine, 2002; Bende-Nabende et al., 2003; Durham, 2004; and Hsiao, 2006). Using a panel dataset of 43 provinces in Vietnam during 1997 – 2012 and the Granger causality test by Arellano-Bond GMM and PMG estimation, this paper shows that: (i) FDI does Granger-cause private investment, human resources, taxation, infrastructure, trade openness and local technology; (ii) FDI has a positive impacts on provincial economic growth in the long term; and (iii) FDI flows vary over provinces due to differences in geographical conditions and level of development.

scholarly journals Examining the Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Extended and Economic Growth in Namibia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Andreas . ◽  
J P S Sheefeni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Lending Rates

The paper examined causality between Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) and Economic growth using quarterly data for the period 2000:Q1-2017:Q4, in Namibia. The variables employed were Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Private Sector Credit Extended, Broad Money Supply (M2) and lending rates. The study tested for stationarity in order to determine the order of integration. Furthermore, a co-integration test was conducted on different sets of variables to establish the long run relationship. Granger causality test was also conducted to establish the direction of the relationships between the variables. The results for the stationarity test showed a combination of different orders of integration. The co-integration test revealed a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The Granger causality test results revealed one-directional causality running from PSCE to GDP. Therefore, one can conclude that that change in private sector credit extended can help predict economic growth.

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